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Mesoscale Discussion 231
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois...northern
   Indiana...and southwestern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...49...

   Valid 010552Z - 010645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48, 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift
   eastward into northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan through
   the early overnight. Occasional strong gusts, marginally severe
   hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible as these storms
   progress from Watch 48 into Watch 49.

   DISCUSSION...Regional WSR-88D data depict a line of strong/severe
   storms stretching from central Illinois northeastward to southern
   Lake Michigan. The strongest portion of the line appears to be
   pushing into northwestern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan in
   the form of a bowing segment. While surface temperatures and dew
   points have decreased ahead of this line, resulting in increasing
   convective inhibition, strong west/southwesterly flow in low/mid
   levels (as depicted by the KIWX VWP) will favor occasional bowing
   structures with enough momentum to create gusty surface winds,
   despite weak low-level stability. Therefore, occasional strong-wind
   gusts and a tornado or two from an embedded circulation will be
   possible through the early overnight.

   ..Picca.. 03/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40308856 41418740 42198669 42418563 42178489 41258587
               40258713 40088809 40188837 40308856 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2017
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