|Mesoscale Discussion 231|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois...northern
Indiana...and southwestern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...49...
Valid 010552Z - 010645Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48, 49 continues.
SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift
eastward into northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan through
the early overnight. Occasional strong gusts, marginally severe
hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible as these storms
progress from Watch 48 into Watch 49.
DISCUSSION...Regional WSR-88D data depict a line of strong/severe
storms stretching from central Illinois northeastward to southern
Lake Michigan. The strongest portion of the line appears to be
pushing into northwestern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan in
the form of a bowing segment. While surface temperatures and dew
points have decreased ahead of this line, resulting in increasing
convective inhibition, strong west/southwesterly flow in low/mid
levels (as depicted by the KIWX VWP) will favor occasional bowing
structures with enough momentum to create gusty surface winds,
despite weak low-level stability. Therefore, occasional strong-wind
gusts and a tornado or two from an embedded circulation will be
possible through the early overnight.
LAT...LON 40308856 41418740 42198669 42418563 42178489 41258587
40258713 40088809 40188837 40308856
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