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Mesoscale Discussion 231
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IL/IND...E-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081750Z - 081915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
   SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...GRAVITY WAVE/DIFFUSE OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM AN MCS
   NOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY HAS STALLED ACROSS SRN IL/IND PER
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
   SUSTAINED ALONG IT...WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
   ALTHOUGH OVERALL EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR GIVEN THE DIFFUSE FORCING
   MECHANISM...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38729190 39089162 39459082 40028971 40308902 40258807
               39728726 39128656 38788596 38608556 38388544 38178554
               38098639 38078753 38218865 38229025 38109120 38229190
               38369195 38729190 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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