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Mesoscale Discussion 232
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N CENTRAL SD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
   ND TO NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 311118Z - 311715Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL -- WITH AVERAGE RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR --
   IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE/SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   THROUGH LATE MORNING.  STRONG NELY WINDS /IN THE 30 MPH RANGE WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A NARROW BUT PERSISTENT BAND OF
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING IN AN ARC-LIKE FASHION FROM FAR
   NWRN MN/NERN ND SWWD INTO NWRN SD ATTM.  THE PRECIPITATION IS
   OCCURRING ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING 992 MB SURFACE LOW
   CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR ANW...AND PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD TO THE FSD
   VICINITY BY MIDDAY.

   AS THE DEEPENING LOW SHIFTS EWD -- AND THEN LATER NEWD INTO S
   CENTRAL MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILT
   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION/DEFORMATION
   ZONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD AND INTENSIFY WITH TIME.  RECENT SREF
   RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES IN
   PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF
   FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES EVOLVING LATER THIS
   MORNING -- CENTERED OVER ERN ND.  GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE SREF
   FORECASTS CONFIRMING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC
   SETUP...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND NEAR
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   48599667 47869618 47289644 46829702 46259838 45719991
               45280080 44840153 45090214 45810218 46890143 48539850
               48869745 48599667 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2014
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