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Mesoscale Discussion 232
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180306Z - 180400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL
   PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A NEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...EXPANSIVE MCS IS PROGRESSING ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   GULF STATES WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY NOW ADVANCING
   ACROSS OKALOOSA COUNTY FL.  TRAILING SQUALL LINE IS MIGRATING ACROSS
   THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO EARLIER
   CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
   ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS ESEWD...LATEST THINKING IS WEAK LAPSE
   RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT HAIL GROWTH AND SEVERE HAIL IS
   UNLIKELY.  FOR THIS REASON A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOES NOT
   APPEAR WARRANTED.

   ..DARROW/GOSS.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30068794 30978637 30908492 30078497 29558723 30068794 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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