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Mesoscale Discussion 234
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK...SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
   OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
   RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
   SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
   COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
   NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
   KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
   SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
   CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
   CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
   /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
   WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37999634 38519525 38749467 38879347 38779269 38019243
               36799346 36299466 36089589 36039703 36009794 35749892
               35789926 35959919 36759828 37359769 37999634 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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