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Mesoscale Discussion 234
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NE TX AND ADJACENT SW AR/NW LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181451Z - 181615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ON THE
   NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
   FORCING WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   ARKLATEX AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION THROUGH MIDDAY.  ASCENT COULD
   BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY POSSIBLE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW
   ALOFT...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE
   MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN...ROOTED ABOVE A COOL
   SURFACE-BASED LAYER THAT SEEMS DEEP AND STABLE ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE
   THE RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.  MORNING
   RAOBS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CAPE...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY 850
   FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
   LAYER MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.  OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT IN STRONGEST STORMS SPREADING
   INTO/ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR BY 17-19Z.

   ..KERR/WEISS.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35249771 35259630 34839455 34639257 32699324 33019507
               33329609 33619720 35249771 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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