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Mesoscale Discussion 234
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0234
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Ohio...western
   Pennsylvania...and far southwestern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010719Z - 010845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong, and even a few severe, wind gusts will be possible
   with light precipitation as it moves east into western Pennsylvania
   and far southwestern New York. However, due to the unorganized
   nature of these winds, watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Several severe gusts have been recorded across portions
   of Indiana and Ohio overnight, with the most recent being a 53-kt
   gust at Cleveland/Hopkins at 0651Z. While strong convection is
   absent from this area, pockets of stratiform precipitation are the
   likely cause of these winds. Forecast soundings indicate the lower
   Great Lakes region is along the eastern edge of an elevated mixed
   layer in the approximate 850-700 mb layer. Evaporative cooling
   within the dry layer is enhancing downward motion within this
   precipitation regime, enabling efficient downward transport of
   high-momentum air (i.e., southwesterly 1-km flow near 70 kts).
   Slight temperature rises have been noted with the stratiform
   precipitation, further suggesting the quasi-heat-burst nature of
   these strong gusts. As light precipitation transits east into
   western PA/far southwestern NY, a few strong/damaging gusts may
   occur. Thereafter, stratiform precipitation should outrun the
   elevated mixed layer, resulting in a downturn in damaging wind-gust
   potential.

   ..Picca/Thompson.. 03/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40618318 41218302 41858096 42527920 42327833 40427869
               40017934 39718211 40158294 40618318 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2017
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