MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...SERN NC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 261344Z - 261615Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING AND INTO
   EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
   SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS OFFERING RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS
   AND A FEW TORNADOES.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT BAND OF STG-SVR CONVECTION...WITH HISTORY OF
   DAMAGING GUSTS...WAS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AT
   1330Z FROM ABOUT 50 W PIE NNEWD ACROSS LEVY COUNTY FL TO BETWEEN
   AMG-SAV...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH NWD EXTENT OVER RELATIVELY
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY...SFC MESOANALYSIS
   SHOWED WARM FRONT FROM JUST OFFSHORE SC SWWD NEAR BUOY 41008 AND
   BQK...THEN WWD ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN PORTIONS WW 46.  SFC COLD
   FRONT IS FARTHER SW ACROSS SWRN GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE...AND WILL
   MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  SLOPE OF
   WARM-FRONTAL SFC APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW OVER REMAINDER SERN GA AND
   SC...BASED OM MODIFICATIONS TO CHS RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS FROM RR
   AND ARW-KF MODELS.  AS SUCH...RELATED LAYER OF STATIC STABILITY OVER
   COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD ERODE FROM STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND VERTICAL
   MIXING AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  THIS PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
   OFFSET ONGOING PRECIP AND RENDER NEARLY SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   PARCELS.  THIS PROCESS ALSO MAY BE AIDED IF SOME ISOLATION CAN OCCUR
   BETWEEN PRECIP AND COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED BY
   BKN PRE-COLD-FRONTAL CLOUDS EVIDENT IN EARLY VIS IMAGERY. 
   
   FCST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG AND S OF WARM
   FRONT...WITH ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING 250-500 J/KG
   EFFECTIVE SRH.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE ALSO IS LIKELY
   WHERE CAPE LAYER CAN DEEPEN THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/26/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32268177 32888189 33278120 33857995 34297915 34497808
               34657715 34407757 34147782 33747795 33877802 33847851
               33587900 33237918 33077926 32977944 33027957 32897959
               32757978 32687988 32558009 32458035 32318041 32248055
               32068081 32268177