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Mesoscale Discussion 235
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of sern IND...cntrl/ern KY...srn OH...into W

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 010732Z - 010900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated tornado may linger another couple
   of hours across remaining valid portions of tornado watch 46.  It is
   not certain that a new watch will be needed east of this watch as
   convection spreads toward the upper Ohio Valley and central
   Appalachians, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Considerable upscale growth of initially discrete storm
   development has occurred during the past couple of hours across the
   lower Ohio Valley.  This has been aided by an area of enhanced
   low-level warm advection, in the vicinity of a 60-70 kt west
   southwesterly 850 mb jet.  

   The strengthening low-level jet core is forecast to continue nosing
   eastward toward the upper Ohio Valley and western slopes of the
   central Appalachians through daybreak.  While low-level moistening
   may accompany this feature, it may occur above a residual
   cooler/drier and more stable near surface layer, reinforced by
   precipitation spreading east northeastward ahead of the more intense
   ongoing convective cores.  

   The extent to which storms, on the western edge of the ongoing area
   of convection, remain based within the boundary layer is becoming
   increasingly unclear.  However, the risk for an additional isolated
   tornado or two may linger across parts of north central Kentucky
   another couple of hours.  Locally strong wind gusts near stronger
   activity is also possible, but it seems more likely than not, at
   this point, that this threat will diminish with activity is it
   spreads eastward through daybreak.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   38578667 39418473 39628277 39348103 38138057 37298328
               37018577 37108705 37998748 38578667 

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