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Mesoscale Discussion 236
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/EAST-CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312052Z - 312245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A GENERAL NORTH-SOUTH
   CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/EAST-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN
   MO. ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
   THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   DISCUSSION...CUMULUS FIELD HAS INCREASED/DEEPENED IN VICINITY OF
   PRE-FRONTAL WEAK DRYLINE AND/OR MERGING COLD FRONT WITHIN A
   NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA INTO
   NORTHWEST MO. AIDED BY ADDITIONAL MIXING AND INFLUENCES OF THE
   MIDDLE MO VALLEY CYCLONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. BUOYANCY
   WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THE PRESENCE OF ONLY 40S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS
   CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THROUGH
   SUNSET.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 03/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   39629448 42689402 44159511 43969339 42939245 39559320
               39629448 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2014
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