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Mesoscale Discussion 236
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of sern MO...srn IL...wrn KY...cntrl/nern
   AR...wrn TN and nwrn MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 010809Z - 011015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be issued prior to the 10Z
   expiration time of tornado watch 46.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent associated with upper
   troughing now advancing across and east of the Plains, vigorous
   convective development is ongoing within a couple of evolving lines.
    These are focused along a cold front, and a pre-frontal confluence
   zone (which appears to coincide with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb
   jet), which are forecast to advance eastward across the Ozark
   Plateau into the Mississippi Valley through 11-13Z.

   Ahead of the convection, into the Mississippi Valley, the warm
   sector air mass is moist and potentially unstable, in the presence
   of large clockwise curved low-level hodographs.  Isolated discrete
   storm development may not be out of the question ahead of the lines.
    If this occurs, they probably will be accompanied by a risk for
   tornadoes and large hail.  Otherwise, with the approach of the
   evolving convective lines (which seem likely to maintain intensity
   through at least daybreak), low-level hodographs, while remaining
   strong, trend more linear, and may be accompanied by primarily a
   risk for damaging surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   34349429 35259286 35809254 36669188 37499072 38128952
               38158845 37458775 36438812 34938961 34109126 33599349
               33709421 34349429 

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