Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 237
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 237 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN KS...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO...NERN
   OK...FAR NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312215Z - 010045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
   EVENING. WHILE A SVR STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
   POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN TOO MINIMAL FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THE CU FIELD INVOF A COLD
   FRONT BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED S/SE OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
   INTO NERN OK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF MAXIMUM
   PRE-FRONTAL DIURNAL HEATING...FRONTAL ASCENT...AND ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING A MINOR MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE KS/OK BORDER
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPDRAFT SHELTERING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME ACCOMPANYING THE SPEED MAX COULD ENHANCE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...AS THE CU RESIDE IN A ZONE OF VERY MODEST PRE-FRONTAL
   MOISTURE RETURN -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S IN
   NERN OK SUPPORTING MARGINAL BUOYANCY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE
   PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF WSWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY EAX/SGF VWP/S AOA 2
   KFT AGL WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE WITH
   STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT...THOUGH SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DEARTH
   OF BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36629613 37839494 39139400 39289263 38289262 36969347
               36199434 36049510 36169602 36629613 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 01, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities