Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017
Areas affected...Parts of srn IL...srn IND...wrn and cntrl
Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...
Valid 011019Z - 011115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.
SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be issued east of tornado
watch 52 within the next hour.
DISCUSSION...Line of vigorous convection, which appeared to initiate
along a pre-frontal confluence zone, has accelerated east
northeastward across northern/central Arkansas the past couple of
hours (at 55-60 kt). Aided by upper forcing for ascent on the
southeastern periphery of upper troughing shifting across/east of
the Plains, activity seems likely to maintain strength another
several hours, progressing east of the Mississippi River, through
much of western/central Kentucky and western/middle Tennessee by
13-15Z. The boundary layer across much of this region remains moist
and potentially unstable (to both updrafts and downdrafts), in the
presence of 40-60 kt west southwesterly deep layer mean flow. With
the approach of the line, low-level hodographs appear to be trending
more unidrectional, supporting primarily a risk for straight line
winds, but a tornado or two may not be out of the question.
LAT...LON 37448945 37908854 38208719 38278583 37628428 36138451
34958634 34788871 35079054 36248945 37448945