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Mesoscale Discussion 237
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of srn IL...srn IND...wrn and cntrl
   KY...western/middle TN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...

   Valid 011019Z - 011115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.

   SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be issued east of tornado
   watch 52 within the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Line of vigorous convection, which appeared to initiate
   along a pre-frontal confluence zone, has accelerated east
   northeastward across northern/central Arkansas the past couple of
   hours (at 55-60 kt).  Aided by upper forcing for ascent on the
   southeastern periphery of upper troughing shifting across/east of
   the Plains, activity seems likely to maintain strength another
   several hours, progressing east of the Mississippi River, through
   much of western/central Kentucky and western/middle Tennessee by
   13-15Z.  The boundary layer across much of this region remains moist
   and potentially unstable (to both updrafts and downdrafts), in the
   presence of 40-60 kt west southwesterly deep layer mean flow.  With
   the approach of the line, low-level hodographs appear to be trending
   more unidrectional, supporting primarily a risk for straight line
   winds, but a tornado or two may not be out of the question.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   37448945 37908854 38208719 38278583 37628428 36138451
               34958634 34788871 35079054 36248945 37448945 

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