Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017
Areas affected...Much of KY...TN through the central Appalachians
Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...53...
Valid 011128Z - 011330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 53 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe weather threat continues. Areas eastward into the
crest of the Appalachians are being monitored for increasing severe
weather potential which could require watches by mid morning.
DISCUSSION...Consolidation of frontal and pre-frontal squall lines
has occurred near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers,
aided by an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent which is
forecast to shift east northeastward toward the upper Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians region through mid day. Embedded
within, and perpendicular to, 50-60+ kt west southwesterly deep
layer mean flow, the southern flank of the evolving squall line is
maintaining rapid forward propagation, and appears likely to
progress east of tornado watch 53 by 15-16Z.
The primary uncertainty concerning continuing severe potential
thereafter, is whether storm motion will outpace appreciable
boundary layer destabilization across the western slopes and crest
of the Appalachians. However, at least until activity reaches the
Cumberland Plateau region, the squall line likely will continue to
pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
LAT...LON 37368761 37938623 38628485 38938394 38848250 39148076
37138235 36068411 35088498 34848725 34928910 35278943