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Mesoscale Discussion 238
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MN...ERN IA...FAR WRN WI...NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312343Z - 010215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
   EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MN TO NRN MO
   WITHIN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF A DEEP CYCLONE WHOSE MID-LEVEL CENTER
   IS POSITIONED OVER SWRN MN PER RECENT MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE
   PRESENCE OF 35-50-KT LOW/MID-LEVEL SLYS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA WILL
   SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE GREATEST
   CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN INVOF A
   COLD-FRONT-OVERTAKEN DRYLINE FROM SERN MN TO ERN IA AND NERN
   MO...AND STORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC DMGG
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. FARTHER N...ASCENT ALONG A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN TO W-CNTRL WI N OF MSP WILL ALSO
   REMAIN A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY MORE BACKED TO ENHANCE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S -- SHOULD KEEP BUOYANCY
   SUFFICIENTLY SMALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO PREVENT A GREATER
   SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FOR
   THE MAINTENANCE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS STORMS APPROACH/CROSS THE MS
   RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   43449117 42219089 40529112 39459166 39449258 39869287
               40829269 42749259 44079328 44689396 45589496 45849379
               44579189 43449117 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2014
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