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Mesoscale Discussion 238
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN
   LOUISIANA...AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47...

   VALID 182047Z - 182245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA HAVE RESULTED
   IN A SWATH OF HAIL REPORTS PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES IN
   DIAMETER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

   IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WITHIN A
   BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   YET TO PRODUCE UPDRAFTS AS ROBUST AS THE EARLIER CONVECTION...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTHS SUFFICIENT TO
   PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS
   CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
   SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THESE INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
   INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFT STRENGTH...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
   THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN
   NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HERE...THE NEAR-SURFACE
   ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   SURFACE-/NEAR-SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
   INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
   THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MORE ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS AND A DIMINISHING WIND THREAT.

   ..MARSH.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31439500 31469509 31579526 31599526 31769540 31849544
               32479558 32729562 32759563 32959566 33889530 33959523
               33959523 34009381 34009376 34009375 33779144 33208975
               33208975 32888973 32888973 32748973 32118973 32088973
               32048973 31439500 31439500 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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