Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 238
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 238 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN KY.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082150Z - 082345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS SEVERAL MULTI-CELL
   CLUSTERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KY AS OF 2130Z. THESE CELLS ARE
   LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK PASSING PERTURBATION IN WLY FLOW
   ALOFT...WHICH IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
   CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS. CURRENT
   MESOANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE /SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/...ALONG
   WITH APPROXIMATELY 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...IS PRESENT. CELL
   TRENDS APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THESE VALUES...AS THE MODE HAS GENERALLY
   BEEN DOMINATED BY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH TRANSIENT ROTATION ALOFT.
   THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A
   COMBINATION OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS RESULTING FROM
   STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN POCKETS OF BETTER INSOLATION AND
   POTENTIAL COLD POOL ORGANIZATION.

   ..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37928307 37208401 36988522 36948614 37278657 37558662
               38178569 38788479 38748408 38488302 37928307 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 08, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities