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Mesoscale Discussion 238
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Much of KY...TN through the central Appalachians
   region

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...53...

   Valid 011128Z - 011330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 53 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe weather threat continues.  Areas eastward into the
   crest of the Appalachians are being monitored for increasing severe
   weather potential which could require watches by mid morning.

   DISCUSSION...Consolidation of frontal and pre-frontal squall lines
   has occurred near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers,
   aided by an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent which is
   forecast to shift east northeastward toward the upper Ohio
   Valley/central Appalachians region through mid day.  Embedded
   within, and perpendicular to, 50-60+ kt west southwesterly deep
   layer mean flow, the southern flank of the evolving squall line is
   maintaining rapid forward propagation, and appears likely to
   progress east of tornado watch 53 by 15-16Z.  

   The primary uncertainty concerning continuing severe potential
   thereafter, is whether storm motion will outpace appreciable
   boundary layer destabilization across the western slopes and crest
   of the Appalachians.  However, at least until activity reaches the
   Cumberland Plateau region, the squall line likely will continue to
   pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
   MEG...

   LAT...LON   37368761 37938623 38628485 38938394 38848250 39148076
               37138235 36068411 35088498 34848725 34928910 35278943
               36058839 37368761 

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