MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN SC INTO SERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 261944Z - 262115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN SC INTO
   SERN NC.  HOWEVER...THIS SVR WEATHER THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON
   SECONDARY TSTM DEVELOPMENT /THAT HAS YET TO BE REALIZED/...WITH
   UNCERTAINTY IN THIS LATTER FACTOR BEING GREATER THAN FORECAST
   EARLIER.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SC /NEAR KCAE/ WITH A WARM FRONT
   HAVING ADVANCED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS ERN SC...AND HAD ALSO
   MOVED INTO SERN NC.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWD TO ALONG THE GA COAST
   AND THROUGH NERN TO WEST CENTRAL FL...WHILE A BOUNDARY EXTENDED
   WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL GA...AND THEN NWWD THROUGH FAR NERN AL. 
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE WARM SECTOR HAS GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZED ACROSS SRN/ERN SC WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000
   J/KG.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAIN
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THERE HAS BEEN A
   LACK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT WOULD PROVE
   SUPPORTIVE OF WW ISSUANCE.  
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ATTEMPTS FOR TCU ALONG THE TRAILING LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GA...THOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THERE LIMITING UPDRAFT SUSTAINABILITY. 
   ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...THE LACK OF DEEPER CONVERGENCE INVOF THE LOW AND ATTENDANT
   BOUNDARIES...AND CURRENT CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE
   LIKELY LIMITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...UNLESS A TSTM CAN FORM
   ACROSS THIS REGION...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS BECOMING
   MORE UNLIKELY THAN LIKELY.
   
   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 02/26/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32018090 32408114 33578095 33978027 34277961 34767844
               34817759 34037746 33527780 32717928 31928048 32018090