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Mesoscale Discussion 240
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011917Z - 012115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SOME SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MO THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   MO...ROUGHLY WITHIN 25-50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-44 AS OF 1915Z.
   WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS AR...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
   TIED TO AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME...WITH
   MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE THE
   SURFACE. SCENARIO SHOULD FAVOR AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF
   TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST CORES LIKELY
   RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS IN GREATER PROXIMITY TO
   THE RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THE MODEST NATURE
   OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER
   A SPECIAL 18Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED SOUNDING...SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL MAGNITUDES OF THE HAIL STONES. BUT EVEN SO...INCREASING
   MOISTURE/RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   /40+ KT/ MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL RISK ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
   ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37589472 38599394 38999281 38829127 38039085 37249160
               36479364 36759465 37589472 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2014
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