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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SE LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 80...
VALID 272318Z - 280015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 80 CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT WITH TORNADO WATCH 80 CONTINUES AND A FEW COUNTIES
ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADDED IN SW MS AND SE LA ATTM. TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
EMBEDDED IN A MCS MOVING ENEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL MS EARLY THIS
EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 00Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN LA
WHERE RUC DATA SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. AN MCS IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NRN GRADIENT OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NRN AND CNTRL LA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE MCS SHOULD AFFECT CNTRL MS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY ENCOURAGE A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK WITH THE MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MS AND
SE LA. THE LATEST WSR-88 VWPS IN SCNTRL MS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH FAST MOVING-LINE SEGMENTS
ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 03/27/2009
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32579081 32819034 32958982 32988940 32888901 32508884
32138898 31828870 31388855 30688878 30199026 30409072
30989096 31659141 32579081
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