MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CDT WED APR 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 020452Z - 020645Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
   
   SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SINCE MID/LATE EVENING REFLECT A MODEST
   INCREASE IN TSTMS OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE /SOUTH OF THE PANAMA
   CITY AND APALACHICOLA AREAS/ WITHIN A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS...AS
   A GULF AIRMASS /AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES TO
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD AMIDST A SHARPENING MARINE FRONT. GIVEN
   AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TALLAHASSEE
   RAOB...THERE IS LEAST SOME CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
   TSTMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FL
   PANHANDLE. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND/HAIL AND AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO RISK GIVEN MODERATE FLOW AROUND 1 KM AND A FEW
   HUNDRED M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED FROM THE LATEST KTLH WSR-88D
   VWP DATA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   RISK...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE...ALTHOUGH A
   SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE TOWARD DAYBREAK
   AS A SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSE NEARS THE REGION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30288624 30878595 30528341 29308306 29688548 30288624