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Mesoscale Discussion 437
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MD 437 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0437
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the Texas panhandle...western Oklahoma
   panhandle...and far northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161940Z - 162145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and
   severe hail are possible this afternoon and early evening, but
   should remain isolated enough to preclude a Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch.

   DISCUSSION...A small area of thunderstorms developing on the Raton
   Mesa is expected to gradually move over the High Plains this
   afternoon.  A pocket of 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints reside over
   the TX and OK panhandles that has yet to mix out and is supporting
   MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg over the area.  Despite some convective
   overturning yesterday, mid-level lapse rates are steepening again
   under the mean westerly flow aloft.  Although effective bulk shear
   is rather weak, stronger upper-level flow in the sub-tropical jet is
   helping to produce 35-40 kt of 0-8 km shear.  Furthermore, the 12z
   AMA raob, and low-level moisture that is currently higher than
   observed there this morning, suggests the area is close to reaching
   convective temperatures in the low 80s.  Although HRRR guidance is
   not producing convection over the area, the RAP and HRRR background
   environments have low-level dewpoints that are 5-10 deg F too low,
   which is likely contributing to a lack of forecasted storms in the
   area.

   The above factors suggest that a storm or two could reach the
   unstable air and mature by mid-late afternoon.  While the weak
   low-level winds suggest a multicell mode, supercells are possible
   since convective updrafts should be able to penetrate the layer with
   speed shear in mid-to-upper levels.  Bunkers storm motion is toward
   the south to south-southeast, which would allow the storm to move
   down the longer axis of the instability over the area.  Severe wind
   gusts and severe hail would be the primary threats if this evolution
   occurs.  Regardless, the isolated nature of the storm(s) should
   preclude the need for a Watch.

   ..Coniglio/Weiss.. 05/16/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36890139 36850085 36500051 35900013 35250027 34560075
               34170139 33870176 33940243 34220265 34970286 35450317
               35900329 36460345 36690329 36890287 36960215 36890139 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2018
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