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Mesoscale Discussion 972
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN UT...SWRN CO...NWRN NM...AND NERN
   AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111932Z - 112130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN AZ/SRN
   UT...COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE PROMOTING SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERAL RECENT REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL...
   GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   40S TO MID 50S. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
   BEEN CONFINED TO NWRN NM...PROBABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT
   EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO POSE A
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN MUCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG PER LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
   SEVERE HAIL IN THE SHORT-TERM APPEARS TO BE OVER SWRN CO AND NWRN
   NM...WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER...AROUND 25-30 KT...COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER W.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

   LAT...LON   36210823 35960864 35381120 35411151 37281208 37941134
               38400998 38650921 38640795 38160681 37210672 36620755
               36210823 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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