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Mesoscale Discussion 976
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 288...

   VALID 122345Z - 130115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
   THE REGION FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO
   NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   COULD STILL INCREASE IN UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

   DISCUSSION...DUE TO LINGERING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
   VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER AND
   MORE FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS.  BUT IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE MIXED LAYER
   CAPE /IN EXCESS OF 3000 J PER KG/...AND MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS HAVE BEEN
   INTENSE...OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN
   DIAMETER...AND PROBABLY GENERATING LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

   THE MORE SUSTAINED STORMS...NOW SOUTH OF ABILENE AND JUNCTION...AND
   MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FORT HOOD...HAVE BEEN
   SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT
   NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW.  HOWEVER...AS UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
   COMMENCES ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THESE STORMS DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
   THAN SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST SOME ACCELERATION IN SPEED.

   ..KERR.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32330036 32509972 32389894 31789663 30959642 29519798
               29519930 29660001 31350131 32330036 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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