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Mesoscale Discussion 978
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX INTO MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 288...

   VALID 130246Z - 130415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THIS COULD IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO AREA WITH THE RISK FOR
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
   GROUND LIGHTNING...BEFORE CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TO MIDDLE/LOWER
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.  TRENDS ARE BEING  MONITORED FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 288.

   DISCUSSION...INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED PARCELS IS
   INCREASING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
   TEXAS.  THIS PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING TRENDS WITH
   LINGERING DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING THE CELL NOW SOUTH
   OF UVALDE/ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
   COLD POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ORIGINATING NEAR THE ABILENE
   AREA...HAS RECENTLY MERGED WITH ACTIVITY THAT INITIATED NORTHWEST OF
   FORT HOOD...AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING OF COLD POOLS
   COULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH THIS
   EVENING.  THIS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE AUSTIN AREA...BUT COULD
   IMPACT SAN ANTONIO AND AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH BY THE 04-06Z
   TIME FRAME.  

   STRENGTHENING FLOW /TO AROUND 30-40 KT/ ABOVE THE DECOUPLING
   BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS POSSIBLE...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INFLOW
   OF VERY MOIST AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MID 70S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS/ WITH LARGE CAPE.  BENEATH WEAK TO MODEST NORTHWESTERLY
   MID/UPPER FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
   STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29319996 30100013 31049999 31329883 31309835 30629708
               30339667 29949623 28959630 28219792 28739955 29319996 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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