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Mesoscale Discussion 978
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...SW KS...NRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...286...

   VALID 120010Z - 120145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   284...286...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO HOURS OVER AT LEAST THE SRN
   PORTION WW 284 AND THE MAJORITY WW 286. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   SUPERCELLS...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
   REMAINING AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS...ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREAS. WITH THE ANTICIPATED PERSISTENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR /RECENT KPUX VAD HAD 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
   BULK SHEAR AND 00Z DDC SOUNDING HAD 46 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...THE
   OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

   A SEMI-DISCRETE TO DISCRETE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
   01Z. PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELL THAT MOVED ACROSS PROWERS
   COUNTY CO HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING WHILE MOST OF
   THE OTHER SUPERCELLS HAVE SHOWN THE TYPICAL CYCLING OF STORM
   STRENGTH. AT SOME POINT...THIS INITIAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO EITHER DIE OFF OR MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   INCREASES WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
   FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THESE POTENTIAL MERGERS AND INCREASED STORM
   COVERAGE...THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXISTS.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   39060528 39590441 39320193 38450143 38169984 36779959
               35500293 36670348 37250515 39060528 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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