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Mesoscale Discussion 981
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0813 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN IA...NERN MO...W-CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 120113Z - 120245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON IN
   ADVANCE OF A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
   MISSOURI/SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA.

   DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINE OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER W/NW
   OF KIRK IS MOVING EAST AT 25-30 KTS. MESOANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED A
   SFC LOW OVER NWRN MO AND A COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
   ACROSS SERN IA AND INTO NRN IL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND A MODESTLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   RESULT IN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AND A CONTINUED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE BOWING LINE OF STORMS. A BRIEF QLCS
   TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED NWS WEATHER
   FORECAST OFFICES SHORTLY.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41119210 41149118 41118987 41008942 40658899 40078892
               39758911 39668975 39539075 40039221 41119210 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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