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Mesoscale Discussion 982
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...SW KS...NRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...

   VALID 120248Z - 120415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH
   UPSCALE GROWTH UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR SE CO. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE
   PRIMARY SVR THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OF THE SUPERCELL IN BACA COUNTY SUGGESTS
   THAT A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE IS UNDERWAY. THIS IMAGERY
   ALSO SHOWS A MESOSCALE VORT MAX JUST NW OF THE SUPERCELL. THE
   SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO WW 286 WITH A CONTINUED
   SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS
   WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT THE
   DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHENEVER THE MCS INTERACTS WITH ANY
   ANTECEDENT DOWNSTREAM UPDRAFTS. TSTM CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT IN
   OCHILTREE AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES IN THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
   POSE A SVR THREAT /PRIMARILY HAIL/. ACTIVITY IN CLARK COUNTY KS HAS
   SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PAST FEW SCANS.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37370344 38040239 38370035 37709864 36999881 35920134
               35770302 37370344 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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