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Mesoscale Discussion 982
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...FAR W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131848Z - 131945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM AND FAR
   W TX ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL
   LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW TOWERING CU PERCOLATING
   OVER THE SACRAMENTO/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NM...AND THE DAVIS MTNS
   OF W TX...WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS SLOWLY INCREASING. WIDESPREAD
   STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IS
   LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING...BUT HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS OF ERODING
   MORE RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST WEAK CINH IS LIKELY IN PLACE
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE AS TEMPERATURES
   APPROACH THE 80S F. 

   LATEST THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   NEAR/JUST E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROGRESS EWD INTO A MORE
   MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
   EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO MODERATELY STRONG WLYS IN
   MIDLEVELS...AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY
   CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS VIA STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
   MIDLEVEL WLYS DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO FAR W TX...WHERE
   COVERAGE MAY ALSO BE MORE ISOLATED...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
   WHETHER THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A WW.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34640310 31970315 30390343 30200389 30410441 31470521
               33520560 35050557 36440520 36910498 36980311 36920305
               34640310 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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