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Mesoscale Discussion 987
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS AND CAPROCK VICINITY / TX PANHANDLE /
   PERMIAN BASIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 132312Z - 140015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LINEAR
   CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE FROM ERN NM INTO THE
   PERMIAN BASIN...THE TX S PLAINS...AND THE WRN PART OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 KT
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS EVENING AS STORMS APPROACH THE
   CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
   QUASI-DISCRETE STORM.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A
   CONSIDERABLE TREND OF STORMS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS
   AND BOWING SEGMENTS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
   ERN PLAINS OF NM.  LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED OVER THE
   LLANO ESTACADO WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND HOTTER TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
   90S OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.  MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW
   WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S S TO THE LOWER 60S N HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG BUOYANCY /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. 
   ADEQUATELY STRONG WLY MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  AN INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ THIS EVENING AND MOIST
   TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL FURTHER FAVOR ADDITIONAL LINEAR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT VIA COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION.  AS SUCH...AN INITIAL
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
   TRANSITION TO BECOMING A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT
   /50-60 KT/ THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE ORGANIZING.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31930447 31950302 33350298 35600300 36020241 36040156
               35870081 35230047 34330047 33270073 31580171 31130258
               30890346 30980404 31400447 31930447 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2014
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