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Mesoscale Discussion 988
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0711 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291...

   VALID 140011Z - 140215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE /EXCEEDING 2
   INCH DIAMETER/...AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTS ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN
   WY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO MORE OF WRN SD.  PER
   COLLABORATION WITH WFO-UNR...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL BE ADDED EWD
   ACROSS WRN SD.  WHILE NOT THE PRIMARY RISK FOR THIS WATCH...THE
   THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INVOF A
   SURFACE LOW IN NERN WY INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WRN SD AS THIS LOW
   MOVES EWD.

   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...
   BUT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...
   THOUGH THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
   NERN MT...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO A SECONDARY LOW
   PRESSURE AREA IN NERN WY.  THIS FRONT THEN TRAILED SWWD THROUGH SWRN
   WY TO NORTH CENTRAL UT.  A DRY LINE EXTENDED SWD NEAR THE WY/SD
   BORDER TO EXTREME WRN PORTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NERN CO...
   WHILE ANOTHER WIND SHIFT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR KTOR SSWWD TO INVOF
   CYS AND THEN JUST W OF FCL.  SLY WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS HAS RESULTED IN FURTHER MOISTENING AND
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB
   THROUGH WRN SD.

   ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50+
   KT SWLY 500 MB JET SHIFTING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN DAKOTAS
   THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO WRN SD AND BECOME SEVERE AS
   STORMS ENCOUNTER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ERN EXTENT
   OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   MAINTAINS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE A STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPH PER RAPID CITY WSR-88D WILL FURTHER FAVOR SPLITTING
   SUPERCELLS.  AN INCREASE IN A SLY LLJ INTO WRN SD SHOULD ENHANCE
   SRH/LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITHIN A N-S CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS AND LOWER LCLS.

   STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN SERN WY ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED
   WIND SHIFT...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  THIS
   MAY BE INDICATIVE OF A STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT.  IF A STORM CAN
   DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WRN NEB...THEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND
   SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORM.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41490435 42430437 43180456 43290574 43730607 44240632
               44510661 44720694 45070690 45230638 46830598 46640441
               46510414 46140369 46010312 45940209 45490150 44960119
               44090103 43790066 43720021 43030014 42950181 41950211
               41440237 41110280 41030355 41490435 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2014
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