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Mesoscale Discussion 990
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 293...

   VALID 122030Z - 122230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OUTSIDE
   OF WW 293. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WITH WW ISSUANCE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH
   HAS LED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION NORTH OF CDS /IN THE NE CORNER OF
   WW 293/. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS
   IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MEAN
   MIXING RATIOS AROUND 14-15 G PER KG/...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES
   UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
   ERN PERIPHERY OF AN APPROACHING IMPULSE IS YIELDING APPROX 30-35 KTS
   OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. AS
   SUCH...MORE VIGOROUS/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   REGARDING THE ABILITY OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF
   INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MORE
   LIKELY...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPINGING UPON THE AREA AND UPSCALE
   GROWTH OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...A
   GREATER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS EVENING AS ONE OR TWO
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGRESS INTO THE MCD AREA.
   NONETHELESS...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33779979 33910041 34490041 34950024 35260002 35599986
               35679951 35689886 35159847 34049877 33779979 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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