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Mesoscale Discussion 993
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141814Z - 141915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND
   GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL...WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF
   THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS UNLIKELY AS THE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED/MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WAS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL
   FL ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE...WITH RADAR BASE VELOCITY DATA
   INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS
   ASSOCIATED. A 44 KT GUST WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT
   ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 1741Z. FARTHER S...MORNING CLOUD
   COVER IS NOW QUICKLY ERODING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY COLD MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MLCAPE
   VALUES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FL
   PENINSULA INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER
   FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ORGANIZATION BEYOND
   PULSE TO INTERMITTENT MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODE TYPES DEVELOPING
   ALONG OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
   LOCALIZED STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR DOWNBURST WINDS. HAIL MAY
   ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27227994 26148034 25468068 25828123 26178155 27058197
               27888206 28478162 28868111 28828081 27227994 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2014
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