Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 994
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 994 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THRU NERN NEBRASKA...ADJACENT N CNTRL
   KS...NWRN IA...SERN SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141857Z - 142100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY THE 21-23Z TIME
   FRAME...WITH THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING IS NOW
   UNDERWAY SOUTH OF GOODLAND KS THROUGH THE HILL CITY KS/KEARNEY NEB
   AREA... NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY IA...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO
   BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  BENEATH A PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
   EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINS
   SUBSTANTIAL.  BUT WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING...CONTINUED MOISTURE
   ADVECTION AND GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
   AT LEAST SCATTERED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY
   AS 21Z.  THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WHERE THE DEVELOPING THERMAL AXIS
   INTERSECTS THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND...INTO THE
   NORFOLK AREA...WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE
   ALREADY EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ALTHOUGH LOWER THROUGH MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...VEERING FROM
   SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...MAY REMAIN A BIT MODEST IN
   STRENGTH...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT...VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS..GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. 
   ONCE THE CAP IS BREACHED...STORM INTENSIFICATION LIKELY WILL BE
   RAPID...WITH STRONGEST STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A STRONG
   TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40570021 41399969 43219733 42849598 39889853 39459962
               40570021 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 14, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities