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Mesoscale Discussion 1260
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031531Z - 031800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CENTER OF STRENGTHENING HRCN ARTHUR WILL MOVE OVER THE
   CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CHANCE
   FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND/OR
   TORNADOES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE FEAR TO
   CAPE LOOKOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...EYE OF HRCN ARTHUR WAS LESS THAN 100NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
   OF MYR/CRE SC BASED ON 15Z NHC FIX. LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
   SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NERN SC AND CAPE FEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
   HOURS. STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES WITHIN THIS LEADING BAND HAVE
   EXHIBITED LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND SPARSE LIGHTNING...POSSIBLY DUE TO
   BEING REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HRCN
   CIRCULATION. A SECOND OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND WAS CURRENTLY
   APPROACHING CAPE FEAR FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 30-35KT WITH SOME OF
   THE STRONGER CELLS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE EXHIBITING
   LIGHTNING...OCCASIONAL WEAK ROTATION...AND EVEN LINEAR/BOWING
   STRUCTURES. LATEST KLTX VWP DEPICTS 35-50KT DEEP-LAYER SELY FLOW IN
   THE 1-5KM LAYER RESULTING IN GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE
   SR-HELICITY FOR STORMS TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 25-30KT. 

   CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTM WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS
   APPROACHING SEVERE...AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN
   VIA CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. WITH TIME... STRENGTHENING SR-HELICITY
   WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
   INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
   THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF
   THE HRCN. THUS...WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY POSES SOME CHANCE FOR STRONG
   TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS OF THE HRCN WILL LIKELY POSE AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL
   SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR TO CAPE
   LOOKOUT.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33927784 33977805 34247807 34577789 34757771 35077719
               35117678 35067642 34977627 34707638 34677656 34647685
               34607707 34547737 34327764 33927784 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2014
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