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Mesoscale Discussion 1270
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF WY/CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012043Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE
   AN ISOLATED SVR RISK...THOUGH WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A PLUME OF ENHANCED
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS -- ON THE NERN RIM OF AN
   ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN -- CONTINUES TO BE
   FOSTERED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. BUOYANCY IS
   MARGINAL OWING TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DEEP SHEAR
   AROUND 20-30 KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS. THE WLY COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS
   SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE
   ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHERE LARGE DCAPE OFFERED BY DEEP MIXING MAY
   BOLSTER THE RISK FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS -- ESPECIALLY WHERE COLD
   POOLS AMALGAMATE. HOWEVER...WITH MLCAPE BEING MODEST -- GENERALLY
   BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG -- AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A MORE SALIENT
   PERTURBATION ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...GREATER-COVERAGE SVR
   RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42980915 43440829 43130626 41270422 38510294 37820361
               38100505 40180582 42180831 42980915 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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