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Mesoscale Discussion 1272
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN MS...NRN/CNTRL AL...NRN/CNTRL
   GA...SERN TN...WRN NC...AND FAR WRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382...

   VALID 012220Z - 012315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT CONTINUES IN
   AND NEAR WW 382...THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WILL
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH...AND WW 382 WILL BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED SEWD ACROSS TN AND NRN AL/GA
   EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THEIR NW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
   SEVERAL ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING ALONG AN
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM NERN MS TO
   CNTRL AL/GA. WHILE MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ESTIMATED BY RAP
   MESOANALYSIS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS
   TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE ESEWD WITH
   TIME...LIMITED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL WINDS
   WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING ON ANY MORE THAN
   A BRIEF AND ISOLATED BASIS...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THE
   MAIN THREAT. THEREFORE...WW 382 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
   SCHEDULE AT 23Z...AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS NECESSARY AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..GLEASON.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   33608731 34248855 34508829 34098671 34108611 34378530
               35078481 35728396 35518321 34778293 32888378 32788460
               33048579 33608731 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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