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Mesoscale Discussion 1272
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 392...

   VALID 040501Z - 040700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 392 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF
   HURRICANE ARTHUR AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0445Z...RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED THE CENTER OF
   HURRICANE ARTHUR NEAR 35 WSW HSE...WITH LATEST NHC FORECAST GUIDANCE
   SHOWING A NEWD MOVEMENT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM THE ERN PART OF ARTHUR INTO NERN NC AND
   SERN VA.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300
   M2/S2 ARCING FROM THE ERN PORTION OF ARTHUR INTO NERN NC MAINTAINS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT.

   COUNTIES WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 SE EWN-25 N EWN-30 ENE RZZ ARE
   EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT AS SURFACE WINDS IN THESE
   AREAS ARE FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN WEAKER EFFECTIVE SRH.

   ..PETERS.. 07/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34707656 35467706 35797712 36537718 36567586 36547557
               35847521 35417524 34967539 34707585 34587624 34707656 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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