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Mesoscale Discussion 1273
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MT...NERN WY...SWRN ND...AND WRN
   SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 020048Z - 020245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
   LIKELY...RADAR TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NERN MT HAS ENCOURAGED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN MT IS CHARACTERIZED
   BY MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
   THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S. A FAVORABLE/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT EVIDENCED BY
   THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM GLASGOW MT AND RAPID CITY SD SHOULD ALLOW
   STORMS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH TIME. LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO
   A LINE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...ALTHOUGH AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEYOND WHAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
   COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45750746 46730814 47260495 46810363 44370127 43500122
               43130194 43050334 43280441 44590602 45750746 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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