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Mesoscale Discussion 1273
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT FRI JUL 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 392...

   VALID 040758Z - 041000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 392 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SERN VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE...OVERALL
   THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER THE
   EXPIRATION OR CANCELLATION OF WW 392.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
   LOCATED NEAR CROATAN SOUND NC MOVING NE AT 15-20 MPH. SEE LATEST
   ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON ARTHUR. THE VWP DATA FROM
   WAKEFIELD SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED BUT REMAINS
   UNIMPRESSIVE. THE MORE FAVORABLE NERN QUADRANT FOR TORNADOES WITH
   STRONGER 0-1 KM SHEAR AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
   AS ARTHUR CONTINUES NEWD THIS MORNING. POORLY ORGANIZED
   SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS LOCATED IN ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS ARE MOVING WWD
   INTO SERN VA AND THE VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE HURRICANE IS
   FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE NEWD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
   THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE
   TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. THEREFORE...ANY REMAINING TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

   ..DIAL.. 07/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

   LAT...LON   36247589 36947643 37447628 37667566 36687584 36247589 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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