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Mesoscale Discussion 1335
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1335
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

   Areas affected...SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172341Z - 180145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
   from south-central South Dakota to northeast South Dakota. Locally
   damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats for the next
   few hours. WW is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating along a pre-frontal wind shift
   has contributed to a very deep boundary layer (roughly 4km) with
   surface temperature-dew point spreads on the order of 40F (a bit
   lower near the MN border). Scattered high-based convection has
   evolved along the southwest-northeast oriented boundary and isolated
   severe thunderstorms have evolved over the last hour or so. MRMS
   data suggests marginally severe hail is noted with this activity but
   locally damaging winds may be the greater risk given the relatively
   dry sub-cloud layer enhancing downdrafts. This activity will linger
   until boundary-layer cooling and spreading outflow helps
   stabilization along this corridor.

   ..Darrow/Edwards.. 07/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47089618 47459160 45879160 45509620 47089618 

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