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Mesoscale Discussion 1486
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1486
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0841 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southwest Nebraska...northwest
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

   Valid 130141Z - 130315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A risk for severe weather may continue with isolated
   stronger storms another couple of hours.  This activity could
   progress just east of the remaining watch area before diminishing
   later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest lingering thunderstorm development (near
   Broken Bow, North Platte and Imperial) appears aided by large-scale
   forcing for ascent associated with low/mid-level warm advection. 
   This is generally focused near the southerly 850 mb jet axis, which
   has strengthened some (to 30-40 kt) during the past hour or two. 
   Only a very gradual veering of this feature is expected into late
   evening, and this could continue to provide support for the
   maintenance of ongoing storms another couple of hours, before waning
   instability/increasing inhibition associated with boundary layer
   cooling finally result in storm dissipation.  Until then, a slow
   south/southeastward propagation of storms should continue, with a
   risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 08/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40250100 41040037 41520008 41779934 41519868 40429932
               39879997 39720084 40250100 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2017
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