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Mesoscale Discussion 1643
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0811 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2017

   Areas affected...Central/southern South Carolina

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 485...

   Valid 120111Z - 120215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 485 continues.

   SUMMARY...A limited tornado threat will persist throughout the
   evening, although this threat should remain isolated enough so that
   Tornado Watch 485 can expire as scheduled without replacement.

   DISCUSSION...Despite persistently strong low-level shear and modest
   buoyancy, recent radar/satellite presentation suggest relatively
   shallow convection across the discussion area with generally weak
   low-level rotation in bands/convective cells.  This has resulted in
   a very isolated tornado threat with convection migrating quickly
   northwestward into the region from open Atlantic Waters. 
   High-resolution guidance suggest that this region of marginal
   buoyancy and strong shear will shift northeastward along the coast
   with time, continuing to support occasional updraft rotation and
   perhaps a tornado overnight into portions of northeastern South
   Carolina.  However, recent trends suggest that this threat will be
   isolated, with a slowly cooling boundary layer (especially in inland
   areas) further lessening this risk.  

   Convective trends will be monitored, although the issuance of a new
   Tornado Watch appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 09/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33658092 33658049 33757977 33847944 33877910 33787876
               33567868 33157878 32927887 32507906 32117945 31977990
               32048047 32318099 32958142 33298154 33558127 33658092 

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Page last modified: September 12, 2017
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