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Mesoscale Discussion 1710
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1710
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the mid Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102010Z - 102215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may be capable of a few damaging gusts and
   marginally severe hail through this evening. However, the threat
   should remain rather limited, and watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed south of St.
   Louis along a pre-frontal trough this afternoon. MRMS CAPPI data
   have illustrated relatively shallow cores with most convection --
   not surprising given relatively meager mid-level lapse rates
   observed in 12Z regional soundings. Nonetheless, a warm/moist
   boundary layer has yielded upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   Indeed, one cell over Jefferson Co., MO, has exhibited a deeper core
   over the last 15-30 minutes, suggesting a slightly improved
   thermodynamic environment. While the hail threat should remain
   limited due to a lack of greater mid-level instability, surface
   heating has steepened low-level lapse rates adequately to support a
   marginal damaging wind threat. Additionally, straight hodographs
   suggest cells may occasionally evolve into small bowing segments,
   which would further enhance this threat. However, due to a lack of
   greater buoyancy, watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Picca/Hart.. 10/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37849076 38689063 39278981 39028908 37668850 36748882
               35898995 35799079 36059100 36599094 37849076 

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