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Mesoscale Discussion 1767
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1767
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1043 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017

   Areas affected...Northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...far western
   Tennessee and Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061643Z - 061915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A smattering of thunderstorms today will have the
   capability of producing marginally severe hail.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms persists across
   northeast AR in a zone of modest instability and supported by an
   elevated warm front. Flow aloft is strong out of the west, resulting
   in favorably long hodographs for sustained cells. These cells have
   mainly shown indications of hail less than 1.00" this morning.

   Behind this activity, satellite imagery shows new elevated
   development across far northern AR into southwest MO, with lighting
   recently detected. Models suggest increasing lift from warm
   advection across this area today with backed 850 mb flow. In
   addition, temperatures aloft are cooler with northward extent which
   will aid destabilization as low-level warm advection continues. The
   result should be an additional rash of strong storms with a few
   containing hail up to 1.00".

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35088963 35129127 35379235 35989304 36429346 36779361
               37109358 37359343 37619311 37839281 37909229 37879185
               37829038 37588974 37248921 36778887 36298871 35708880
               35348891 35088963 

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Page last modified: November 06, 2017
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