Jun 4, 2008 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 4 06:05:48 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080604 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20080604 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 040537
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN/SERN
   SD/NRN AND WRN IA/ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING
   THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
   DYNAMIC...UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SHIFT EWD
   INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.  AN EMBEDDED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
   INITIALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASING
   NEGATIVE-TILT TO UPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB
   WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NEB BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY FRIDAY MORNING.  ASSOCIATED WARM
   FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY EXTENDING
   FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD THROUGH SERN SD/SRN MN/CNTRL WI/CNTRL OR
   NRN MI BY 06/00Z.  A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH
   CNTRL NEB/KS INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX AT THIS TIME.
   
   --SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
   PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/SD/MN/IA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES--
   
   ...GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN PLAINS...
   
   A VERY BROAD AND STRONG...SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE
   60S...THOUGH SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE
   SHALLOWER CBL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED.  A PRONOUNCED EML WILL RESIDE
   ABOVE THIS MOISTURE WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT
   STRONGLY CAPPED FROM WARM FRONT SWD ALONG DRYLINE.  THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG WARM
   FRONT SWD ALONG CNTRL PLAINS PORTION OF DRYLINE WHERE STEEPER
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.  CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO
   DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SRN KS SWD OWING VERY WARM MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
   
   A BAND OF TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
   MORNING TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NEB/SD EWD
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AXIS.  ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THIS SAME FORCING REGIME...WITH ACTIVITY
   MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   MAINLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
   STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.
   
   MORE SIGNIFICANT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM
   BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD SYSTEM WARM SECTOR...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE
   CAP.  VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER/ WILL
   BE QUITE STRONG FROM MDT RISK PORTION OF WARM FRONT SWD ALONG
   DRYLINE WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A FEW OF THE
   TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED OWING TO THE
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 40-50+ STORM MOTIONS.
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG
   DRYLINE FROM KS INTO OK AND POSSIBLY N TX GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP
   FORECAST.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG ERN EXTENSION OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS
   WI/LOWER MI WHERE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
   QUASI-LINEAR MCS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUING AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   
   SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE ALONG
   MORE N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION.  DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S COUPLED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   WHILE BOTH MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES
   SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/04/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z