Dec 6, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 6 16:49:33 UTC 2017 (20171206 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171206 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171206 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171206 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061649

   Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Thursday through Thursday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Mid-level flow will remain strongly confluent across much of North
   America, with sharp positively tilted large-scale troughing
   extending along an axis from the Great Lakes into the northern
   Mexican Plateau, downstream of prominent ridging along the U.S.
   Pacific coast northward through western Canada.  This regime appears
   likely to maintain generally dry and/or stable conditions across all
   but perhaps portions of the Southeast, with minimal potential for
   deep convection.

   A low-level frontal zone is expected to remain quasi-stationary
   along the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, off the south
   Atlantic coast, across northern Florida into the central Gulf of
   Mexico.  Models do suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become
   characterized by at least weak conditional instability, both south
   of the front (across parts of the central and southern Florida
   peninsula), and perhaps within a corridor above/to the cool side of
   the surface front (roughly across the Florida panhandle and adjacent
   Gulf coastal areas into the South Carolina coastal plain).  The
   extent to which this becomes conducive to convection capable of
   producing lightning remains a bit unclear.  However, in either case,
   probabilities for thunderstorms still appear low, and generally less
   than the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunderstorm
   area.

   ..Kerr.. 12/06/2017

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