Feb 7, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 7 05:43:00 UTC 2018 (20180207 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180207 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180207 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 44,310 8,330,255 Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180207 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 27,780 1,817,642 Montgomery, AL...Tuscaloosa, AL...Hoover, AL...Auburn, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180207 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,145 8,329,709 Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180207 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070543

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   EAST-CENTRAL MS ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO NORTHWEST GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the eastern Gulf Coast
   states today, accompanied by some risk for severe weather.

   ...Synopsis...
   Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Plains is
   expected to continue east-northeastward into the OH Valley while
   losing amplitude amidst the confluent mid/upper flow. As this
   occurs, frontal low currently centered along the central TX/LA
   border will propagate quickly northeastward along the frontal
   boundary and just ahead of the parent shortwave trough. By 00Z
   Thursday, expectation is for this low to be centered over the NC
   Piedmont with a cold front extending southeastward through the
   western FL Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along
   and in the wake of this cold front as it tracks eastward across the
   Southeast States.

   ...Southeast...
   Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 40s to
   upper 50s but continue moisture advection ahead of the approaching
   cold front will likely result in dewpoints reaching the low 60s
   prior to the passage of the cold front. Large-scale forcing for
   ascent will becoming increasingly displaced north of the better
   low-level moisture (and resulting instability) throughout the period
   but a narrow window appears to exist during the early morning
   through early afternoon for a few stronger storms along the front
   from east-central MS into northwest GA. In this area, moisture and
   instability will be rather modest but strengthening low-level flow
   (i.e. over 50 kt at 850 mb) will support updraft rotation and faster
   storm motion, both of which will aid in storm persistence. Stable,
   near-isothermal layer in the lowest 1 km reduces the likelihood of
   surface-based convection but wind fields appear strong enough to
   support occasional/brief gusts capable of reaching the surface in
   spite of this stable layer. A brief tornado is also possible.

   ..Mosier.. 02/07/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z