Feb 7, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 7 16:04:18 UTC 2018 (20180207 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180207 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180207 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 46,318 3,896,687 Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Warner Robins, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180207 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180207 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 46,377 3,870,610 Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Warner Robins, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180207 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071604

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2018

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER PARTS
   OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts today over
   parts of the Southeast states.

   ...FL/AL/GA/SC...
   A strong cold front continues to sag southeastward today across the
   TN Valley and southern Appalachians.  Ahead of this front, a broad
   area of showers and thunderstorms are affecting areas from MS/AL
   eastward into the Carolinas.  The air mass ahead of the convection
   is only marginally unstable, with dewpoints in the 50s and
   considerable cloud cover.  But despite the poor thermodynamic
   environment, considerable large-scale lift and favorable vertical
   shear profiles will maintain a broken line of thunderstorms along
   the leading edge of the convective shield.  Isolated damaging wind
   gusts will remain possible through the afternoon ahead of this
   activity as it progresses across Georgia and South Carolina.

   ..Hart/Broyles.. 02/07/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z