Feb 7, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 7 19:40:01 UTC 2018 (20180207 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180207 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180207 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 13,340 806,317 Summerville, SC...Thomasville, GA...Lynn Haven, FL...Moultrie, GA...Douglas, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180207 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180207 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 12,957 795,010 Summerville, SC...Thomasville, GA...Lynn Haven, FL...Moultrie, GA...Douglas, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180207 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071940

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018

   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA
   AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Although some risk for severe weather with thunderstorms continues
   across parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia into the
   South Carolina coastal plain late this afternoon, this threat
   appears to be in the process of diminishing.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   The ongoing narrow line of thunderstorms across parts of the Florida
   Panhandle into southern Georgia remains coincident with a lingering
   belt of 30-40+ kt southwesterly 850 mb flow.  However, it appears
   that the influx of mid 60s boundary layer dew points off the Gulf of
   Mexico will become increasingly cut off, as convection slowly
   advances eastward and low-level wind fields begin to weaken by early
   evening.  With large-scale support for continuing convective
   development already appearing to be in the process of weakening, low
   severe weather probabilities across northern Florida, southern
   Georgia and the South Carolina coastal plain are expected to become
   increasingly negligible late this afternoon.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2018/

   ...FL/AL/GA/SC...
   A strong cold front continues to sag southeastward today across the
   TN Valley and southern Appalachians.  Ahead of this front, a broad
   area of showers and thunderstorms are affecting areas from MS/AL
   eastward into the Carolinas.  The air mass ahead of the convection
   is only marginally unstable, with dewpoints in the 50s and
   considerable cloud cover.  But despite the poor thermodynamic
   environment, considerable large-scale lift and favorable vertical
   shear profiles will maintain a broken line of thunderstorms along
   the leading edge of the convective shield.  Isolated damaging wind
   gusts will remain possible through the afternoon ahead of this
   activity as it progresses across Georgia and South Carolina.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z