Feb 8, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 8 00:56:30 UTC 2018 (20180208 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180208 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180208 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180208 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180208 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180208 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080056

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018

   Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather threat has diminished in the Southeast, though
   thunderstorms will linger across parts of the Gulf coast region
   mainly through late this evening.

   ...Discussion...
   Weakening buoyancy across the northern FL Peninsula should continue
   to inhibit thunderstorm coverage as a west-southwest to
   east-northeast oriented convective outflow boundary advances
   southward into this region.  Meanwhile, modest elevated lapse rates
   around 7.0 C/km per 00Z soundings in a post-frontal environment and
   forcing for ascent within the entrance region of mid-upper level
   jets across the northern Gulf Coast region should support additional
   thunderstorms this evening.  Overall weak buoyancy will limit any
   severe weather threat this forecast period.

   ..Peters.. 02/08/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z