Feb 9, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 9 05:08:38 UTC 2018 (20180209 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180209 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180209 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180209 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180209 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180209 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090508

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of southeast Texas
   through the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast States,
   mainly later today through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   Height falls are expected to develop southward across the Great
   Basin and Rockies through the period, such that mean flow will
   increase and the weak closed low over northwest Mexico will eject
   east-northeastward toward TX late in the period.  In advance of this
   ejecting wave, a gradual increase in low-level warm advection and
   moisture transport northward/northeastward across the Gulf coast
   will contribute to destabilization near and above the surface.  The
   primary threat for elevated thunderstorm development will be focused
   tonight from the middle/upper TX coastal plain northeastward to the
   Mid South, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough from Mexico
   and along and southeast of a slow-moving cold front.  Low-level
   shear is not expected to be particularly strong in the vicinity of
   southern LA, while a lingering near-surface stable layer associated
   with the cool shelf waters should largely limit the potential for
   surface-based thunderstorms. 

   A secondary area with potential for deep convection will be in the
   zone of enhanced low-level warm advection associated with a
   modifying air mass along the coastal front from southeast GA to the
   Carolinas this afternoon into tonight.

   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 02/09/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z