Feb 9, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 9 16:16:34 UTC 2018 (20180209 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180209 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180209 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180209 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180209 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180209 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018

   Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly late tonight
   into early Saturday from southeast Texas across the Lower
   Mississippi Valley, and are possible along the South Atlantic Coast
   through tonight.

   ...Coastal GA/Carolinas...
   Isolated thunder may develop in association with a minor mid-level
   perturbation and weak low-level warm advection regime that shifts
   towards the South Atlantic Coast through tonight. 12Z Jacksonville
   sounding sampled a sliver of MUCAPE near 200 J/kg. The bulk of the
   convective activity will likely develop offshore.

   ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley...
   A broad swath of 25-40 kt 850-mb southwesterlies will foster
   moderate low-level warm advection atop a warm front slowly advancing
   north from the northern Gulf tonight. This moistening will result in
   increasing, but still weak MUCAPE amid modest mid-level lapse rates.
   Showers and embedded storms will increase tonight into early
   Saturday. Moderate speed shear through thinly buoyant parcels may
   yield effective values approaching 30 kt. While weak mid-level
   rotation in a cell or two is possible, the instability/hodograph
   combination appears too small amid a near-surface stable layer to
   warrant severe probabilities.

   ..Grams/Kerr.. 02/09/2018

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