SPC AC 100049
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2018
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through early
Saturday from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. A few
thunderstorms may also occur along the south Atlantic Coast.
A broad zone of low-level moistening and weak warm advection extends
from east TX to the lower MS Valley, in advance of a weak midlevel
trough ejecting east-northeastward from northern Mexico. Mass
response to the ejecting trough will drive some increase in
low-level flow/warm advection overnight into the lower MS Valley,
where mainly elevated thunderstorm development is expected. Weak
buoyancy rooted at or near the surface extends from southeast TX
across southern LA, as reflected in the 00z LCH and LIX soundings.
However, some surface cooling and lingering influence of relatively
cool shelf waters should help maintain a shallow stable layer near
the ground through the overnight period. Given that forcing for
ascent and low-level shear will not be particularly strong, and that
upstream lapse rates are poor, severe storms are not expected.
A separate corridor of enhanced low-level warm advection will spread
northeastward near and just off the Carolina coasts. Per the 00z
JAX sounding and lightning data, there will be some threat for
elevated thunderstorms near the coast through the overnight hours.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z