Feb 10, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 10 00:49:55 UTC 2018 (20180210 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180210 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180210 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180210 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180210 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180210 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100049

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2018

   Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through early
   Saturday from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. A few
   thunderstorms may also occur along the south Atlantic Coast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad zone of low-level moistening and weak warm advection extends
   from east TX to the lower MS Valley, in advance of a weak midlevel
   trough ejecting east-northeastward from northern Mexico.  Mass
   response to the ejecting trough will drive some increase in
   low-level flow/warm advection overnight into the lower MS Valley,
   where mainly elevated thunderstorm development is expected.  Weak
   buoyancy rooted at or near the surface extends from southeast TX
   across southern LA, as reflected in the 00z LCH and LIX soundings. 
   However, some surface cooling and lingering influence of relatively
   cool shelf waters should help maintain a shallow stable layer near
   the ground through the overnight period.  Given that forcing for
   ascent and low-level shear will not be particularly strong, and that
   upstream lapse rates are poor, severe storms are not expected.

   A separate corridor of enhanced low-level warm advection will spread
   northeastward near and just off the Carolina coasts.  Per the 00z
   JAX sounding and lightning data, there will be some threat for
   elevated thunderstorms near the coast through the overnight hours.

   ..Thompson.. 02/10/2018

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