Feb 6, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 6 17:10:15 UTC 2018 (20180206 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180206 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180206 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 44,383 3,378,057 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180206 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,384 3,359,241 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
   SPC AC 061710

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
   MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the eastern Gulf Coast
   states Wednesday, accompanied by some risk for severe weather.

   ...Discussion...
   A couple of short wave troughs, currently digging within
   northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of the blocking high west of
   the Pacific coast, appear likely to accelerate into and through a
   broadly confluent west southwesterly regime east of the Mississippi
   Valley during this period.  The northern of the two impulses may
   maintain considerable strength as it shifts across the Great Lakes,
   toward the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a polar low digging
   to the northeast of Hudson Bay.  Forcing associated with this
   feature is forecast to support cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic
   coast by Wednesday evening.

   While the stronger large-scale ascent appears likely to shift north
   and northeast of the upper Ohio Valley and central/southern
   Appalachians during the day Wednesday, models suggest that a zone of
   ascent may be maintained along through just south of a trailing
   surface frontal zone across the Gulf Coast states.  This may be
   aided by the approach of the southern of the two impulses, though
   models suggest that this latter feature may become increasingly
   sheared while progressing east of the southern Plains, as
   subtropical ridging maintains strength across the Gulf of Mexico/
   Florida/Bahamas/Caribbean region.

   Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not become
   particularly steep, a plume of increasingly moist air emanating from
   the modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer probably will continue
   advecting northeastward along/ahead of the east southeastward
   advancing cold front.  This may include a narrow tongue of boundary
   layer moistening inland of the Gulf coast, into the vicinity of the
   pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of the eastern Gulf
   states by midday Wednesday, where/when surface dew points may reach
   the lower/mid 60s.

   ...Southern Alabama into central Georgia vicinity...
   Before large-scale ascent wanes/shifts off to the northeast and
   east, a window of opportunity appears to exist for the development
   of a corridor of weak boundary layer destabilization along and just
   ahead of the surface front, from mid/late Wednesday morning into
   Wednesday afternoon.  If this occurs, it probably will do so as
   southwesterly to westerly lower/mid tropospheric flow maintains
   considerable strength on the order of 30-50+ kt.  This environment
   may become conducive to organized convective development, perhaps
   including an isolated supercell or two.  Although potentially
   damaging wind gusts seems the most probable primary severe threat,
   some risk for a tornado may not be out of the question.

   ..Kerr.. 02/06/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z