SPC AC 081730
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts
of east Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast
Upper pattern will change little through Friday with a large-scale
trough dominating the U.S.. Shortwave trough embedded within the
southern stream, now approaching west central Mexico will continue
northeast through southern TX and eventually the lower Mississippi
Valley region Friday night. A warm front over the northern Gulf will
approach the western Gulf-coastal area Friday night.
...East Texas through the Southeast States...
As continental-polar high pressure moves off the Atlantic seaboard,
a broad fetch of southerly winds will become established over the
Gulf-Coast states. The resulting low-level theta-e advection will
contribute to weak instability across the region. Destabilization
and isentropic ascent will contribute to areas of showers and a few
thunderstorms later in the day and especially Friday night. The
thermodynamic environment is expected to remain generally weak with
poor mid-level lapse rates, and this will limit thunderstorm
coverage overall. Most lightning activity will probably occur from
east TX into the lower MS Valley region, but a few strikes cannot be
ruled out across the remainder of the general thunder area. With the
exception of near the coast, the convection is expected to remain
elevated above a stable surface layer.
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