Feb 8, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 8 17:30:58 UTC 2018 (20180208 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180208 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180208 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180208 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts
   of east Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast
   States.

   ...Synopsis...

   Upper pattern will change little through Friday with a large-scale
   trough dominating the U.S.. Shortwave trough embedded within the
   southern stream, now approaching west central Mexico will continue
   northeast through southern TX and eventually the lower Mississippi
   Valley region Friday night. A warm front over the northern Gulf will
   approach the western Gulf-coastal area Friday night.

   ...East Texas through the Southeast States...

   As continental-polar high pressure moves off the Atlantic seaboard,
   a broad fetch of southerly winds will become established over the
   Gulf-Coast states. The resulting low-level theta-e advection will
   contribute to weak instability across the region. Destabilization
   and isentropic ascent will contribute to areas of showers and a few
   thunderstorms later in the day and especially Friday night. The
   thermodynamic environment is expected to remain generally weak with
   poor mid-level lapse rates, and this will limit thunderstorm
   coverage overall. Most lightning activity will probably occur from
   east TX into the lower MS Valley region, but a few strikes cannot be
   ruled out across the remainder of the general thunder area. With the
   exception of near the coast, the convection is expected to remain
   elevated above a stable surface layer.

   ..Dial.. 02/08/2018

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