Feb 7, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 7 05:28:59 UTC 2018 (20180207 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180207 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180207 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180207 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070528

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm potential will increase Friday to include much of the
   lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region and parts of the
   Southeast.

   ...Discussion...

   Large-scale height field will gradually lower across the northern
   two-thirds of the country Friday as broad cyclonic flow establishes
   itself by late week. A secondary, much weaker mid-level current will
   extend across deep south TX into the Mid-South region. This
   low-latitude current should aid northward movement of modified Gulf
   air with PW values on the order of 1.25-1.5" across a broadening
   warm sector. It's not entirely clear whether any low-latitude
   disturbances will eject into this region but warm advection should
   enhance thunderstorm threat through the period with higher
   probabilities shifting from south to north Friday night. Forecast
   soundings do not suggest sufficient buoyancy for organized severe.

   Another region of potential thunderstorm activity will be across the
   Southeast. Warm advection atop a retreating continental air mass
   should encourage ascent within a moistening/destabilizing
   environment from GA into the Carolinas. MUCAPE could approach 500
   J/kg for parcels lifted near 950-900mb, likely adequate for
   lightning-producing updrafts.

   ..Darrow.. 02/07/2018

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