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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 22, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 22 05:16:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140822 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140822 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220516

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHER
   MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL NORTH
   CAROLINA.  LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...

   EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS
   EXPECTED TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS
   SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR WEST.  LATEST NAM
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF 30-40KT 500MB FLOW WILL EXTEND
   ACROSS ERN NM/CO INTO SWRN NEB BY 23/00Z...WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY
   INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER SD.  THIS FEATURE
   SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM
   THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
   COOL...-6 AT 500MB...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOWER 70S SFC DEW POINTS ARE
   IN PLACE NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND THIS AIRMASS
   SHOULD ADVECT WWD AS SFC LOW FORMS OVER WRN KS.  IN FACT...3000-4000
   J/KG SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP AS FAR AS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB PRIOR TO
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY IT APPEARS HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 20-21Z
   WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT
   COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT.  BY LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER EXHIBIT PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH 40KT+ SFC-6KM SHEAR AND SFC-3KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200 M2/S2. 
   LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN
   QUITE MOIST.  LLJ WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SFC LOW
   IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD TOWARD THE SD BORDER WITH EJECTING SHORT
   WAVE.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXTENDED LOW SEVERE PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
   SD AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
   LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD.

   ...OH VALLEY...

   DOWNSTREAM...WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND NEGLIGIBLE LARGE SCALE FORCING
   WILL LIKELY NEGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG BUOYANT BUT
   WEAKLY-SHEARED SFC FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND OH
   VALLEY.  EVEN SO...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD AID ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   SOME HAIL.

   ...SERN U.S...

   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS TOPPED THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND IS
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
   VA BY 18Z WITH A BELT OF MODEST NWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS
   VA/NC WITH 35KT AT 500MB.  STRONGEST HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   COASTAL NC AND THIS MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO AID
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.  LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL DIG
   SEWD INTO ID DURING THE DAY.  ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP WITHIN DIFLUENT FLOW REGIME PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF ID INTO SRN MT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT AMPLE
   INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF
   DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ISOLATED HAIL/WIND MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW SUPERCELLS EVOLVE.

   ..DARROW/MOSIER.. 08/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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