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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 2, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 2 16:16:39 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141002 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141002 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 021616

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
   STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINES AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO
   FURTHER AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
   PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE CANADIAN AND
   NRN U.S. ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS BROADER CYCLONIC
   AIR STREAM...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE 50 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   THE MID MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONG
   HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ALONG THE SYSTEM TRACK.

   AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM N-CNTRL OK
   INTO NERN KS WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES ALONG A COLD FRONT SURGING EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
   MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
   SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY.
   AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD
   THROUGH OH VALLEY INTO SRN GREAT LAKES.

   ...MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

   NUMEROUS ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF LATE MORNING FROM ERN KS
   AND MO SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY ROOTED WITH THE
   WARM CONVEYOR AIR STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INDICATE
   THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWEST 100-MB
   MEAN-MIXING RATIOS RANGING FROM 14.5-15.5 G/KG OVER THE CNTRL LOW
   PLAINS AND OZARKS...TO AS HIGH AS 16-18+ G/KG OVER THE WRN GULF
   COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST /REF. 12Z DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS/
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-2500+ J/KG IN
   AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING.

   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT ONGOING STORMS
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR.
   BY AFTERNOON...THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT AND
   SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO CNTRL TX. A SEPARATE BAND OF
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ARISE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF EARLY-DAY
   ELEVATED TSTMS ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS
   OF IL/IND. 

   IN BOTH OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED REGIMES...LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE
   MODE...SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE
   WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
   AND EWD TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE
   OVERLAP OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE CONVECTIVE MODE. WHERE
   MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE...THE PRESENCE OF THE VERY
   MOIST/LOW-LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   SUGGEST A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. 
    
   THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
   INTO THE TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE QLCS ALONG
   OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

   ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 10/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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