SPC AC 250057

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...EXTREME NERN CO...NWRN KS INTO A PORTION OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB...

   ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
   EVENING PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. THESE STORMS
   WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH
   THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LBF 00Z RAOB INDICATES 1800
   J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE LLJ IS
   STRENGTHENING AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
   STORMS. A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS 0-2 KM
   HODOGRAPHS INCREASE IN SIZE AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
   STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE EWD
   THROUGH SRN/CNTRL NEB.

   LATER TONIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE ACROSS NERN
   NEB INTO SERN SD AND NWRN IA WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
   THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST RISK FOR HAIL.

   FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REF SWOMCD 793.

   ...SRN PLAINS...

   ISOLATED STORMS PERSIST SWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO
   INTO ERN NM WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENTS WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
   DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   OTHER MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN THROUGH CNTRL OK ARE
   WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
   LATER THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL.. 05/25/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z