SPC AC 040031
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
   
   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN MT...
   
   ...CNTRL PLNS...
   TWO PRIMARY ZONES OF TSTM INITIATION OCCURRED THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
   PLAINS.  ONE ZONE EXISTED INVOF A WEAK H7-H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB.  THE OTHER
   ALONG A WEAK SFC LOW/WRMFNT WITHIN A SUB-TROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LVL
   MOISTURE ACROSS ERN CO AND CNTRL/NRN KS.
   
   00Z LBF/OAX SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   HOSTILE TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  COMPARATIVELY
   MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER TO THE S WILL SUPPORT EVENING
   MULTICELLS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS AMIDST 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50
   KTS OF WLY SHEAR.  PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   LATER THIS EVE...LOW/MID-LVL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...NORTH
   OF BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WRMFNT ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45-50
   KT SSWLY LLJ.  THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS
   SCNTRL/SERN NEB...NCNTRL/NERN KS...NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.  A FEW
   STORMS MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE PRIMARY SVR
   THREATS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THIS EVE.
   
   ...ERN MT...
   MULTICELLS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN SK LATE AFTN ALONG
   SRN EXTENT OF A MID-LVL WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS CNTRL SK.  ACTIVITY
   WAS PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH AN INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY
   1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY STEEP HIGH-LVL LAPSE RATES. 
   STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO
   ECNTRL MT WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/04/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z