Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 28, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 28 19:44:33 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150128 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150128 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281944

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   U.S. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH /18Z/ DOES INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
   AXIS OF VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION /BASED AROUND 700 MB/ IN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR...NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TN THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE KY AND
   CINCINNATI OH AREAS...TOWARD 29/11-12Z.  THIS LIKELY IS IN RESPONSE
   TO MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH OF SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC ORIGIN...CURRENTLY
   TURNING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.  WHILE THE
   ASSOCIATED RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAY NOT BE
   COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... AT THE PRESENT TIME PROBABILITIES FOR
   THUNDER STILL SEEM BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
   CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA.

   ..KERR.. 01/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
   MULTI-STREAM...LARGELY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH EARLY THU...IN WAKE OF DEPARTING E CST TROUGH. SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE GRT BASIN YESTERDAY WILL TRACK ESE INTO THE
   MID MS VLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER
   AB/SK CONTINUES ESE TO MN/WI. IN RESPONSE...EXPECT EXISTING LEE LOW
   TO CONSOLIDATE ESEWD...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER NEARING CHI
   BY 12Z THU. 

   A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SWEEP E/NE INTO THE LWR OH
   VLY EARLY THU AHEAD OF LEAD UPR SYSTEM...AND ATOP STRENGTHENING WAA
   ZONE E OF ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. WHILE INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LVL
   CONVECTION LIKELY WILL ARISE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
   CORRIDOR OF GREATEST DVCA OVER IL...SPARSE MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT
   BUOYANCY/CHARGE SEPARATION WILL REMAIN TOO FEEBLE FOR THUNDER.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 28, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities