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Nov 7, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 7 05:47:15 UTC 2009  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 070544
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CST FRI NOV 06 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...PACIFIC NW...
   
   A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC INTO
   THE NWRN CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AND
   THE PRIMARY JET CORE SAGS SWD INTO CA.  DEEP WLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
   MAINTAIN WEAK BUOYANCY ALONG THE COAST AS MARINE LAYER IS FORCED
   AGAINST THE CASCADE RANGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COAST
   SUGGEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH SBCAPE
   VALUES LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG...CLOUD TOPS COULD EASILY
   EXCEED LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   
   DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
   ROCKIES...EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
   WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
   AFFECT TX UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.
   
   ..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 11/07/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: November 06, 2009
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