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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 23, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 23 19:45:29 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170223 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170223 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231945

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
   KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO IOWA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may produce isolated severe hail across portions of
   northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska into Iowa and northern
   Missouri this evening and overnight.

   ...Discussion...

   Previous forecast appears on track, and only minor adjustments have
   been made. Elevated thunderstorms should develop from north central
   to northeast KS, moving into southeast NE and southern IA this
   evening where a progressive shortwave trough and strengthening
   low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent and destabilization
   north of a warm front currently located across southern KS. While
   updrafts will be elevated, effective shear will be sufficient for a
   few storms to develop mid-level rotation which, in addition to steep
   mid-level lapse rates and 500 J/kg MUCAPE, will promote a modest
   threat for mainly large hail.

   ..Dial.. 02/23/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

   ...Central Plains and middle Missouri Valley/Midwest...
   Limited moisture observed across the central and southern Plains
   (per surface observed and 12Z upper-air data/soundings) casts some
   uncertainty regarding the timing/extent of convective development,
   while otherwise likely limiting the overall potential for severe
   storms later today. 

   This limited moisture and the existence of an appreciable elevated
   mixed layer is expected to preclude surface-based development
   through the afternoon, although an increase in elevated thunderstorm
   development may begin to occur around and after sunset (as early as
   23Z-00Z time frame). Aided by DPVA and increasing isentropic ascent,
   this development should mainly be focused across north-central
   Kansas just to the north of an eastward-developing surface low and
   north of a sharpening warm front. While moisture/overall buoyancy
   will be meager, very steep mid-level lapse rates and long
   straight-line hodographs within the cloud-bearing layer could yield
   some hail/locally gusty winds, with latest forecast soundings
   generally suggesting that storms should generally be rooted near or
   above 850 mb. Any such threat should be semi-focused across
   north-central/northeast Kansas this evening, but other
   strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur across far southern
   Nebraska into Iowa and northern Missouri through the overnight.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: February 23, 2017
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