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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 19, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 19 01:00:46 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150419 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150419 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL KS TO CNTRL TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
   CNTRL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
   OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

   ...GREAT PLAINS...
   SEVERAL ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS FROM NEB TO TX WILL POSE A PRIMARILY
   SHORT-TERM SEVERE RISK INTO LATE EVENING. ACROSS NEB AND MOST OF
   KS...WEAK BUOYANCY/EARLIER OVERTURNING WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR
   SUGGESTING THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY
   ORGANIZED RISK THIS EVENING WILL EXIST FROM FAR S-CNTRL KS THROUGH
   CNTRL TX AMIDST GREATER BUOYANCY/DIURNAL HEATING RELATIVE TO FARTHER
   N. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD GIVEN STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES...BUT THE WIND THREAT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER WITH
   AN MCS EVOLVING EWD IN CNTRL TX. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LACK
   OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. PLEASE
   SEE ONGOING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST
   INFORMATION.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   WIDESPREAD ANVIL AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED WITH ABUNDANT
   OFFSHORE TSTMS S OF THE LA/AL/MS COAST. 00Z LIX RAOB SAMPLED POOR
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BUT STILL WEAK BUOYANCY GIVEN PW VALUES
   NEAR 2 INCHES. GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   S/SWLYS TOWARDS 12Z/SUN AMIDST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
   ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST. THIS
   COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   LATE IN THE PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/19/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 19, 2015
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