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    Day 2 Outlook >
Dec 15, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 15 12:46:59 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171215 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171215 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 151246

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

   Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm threat is too small for an outlook area through
   tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern with gradual large-scale
   deamplification is expected through the period, as a trough now
   offshore from the Pacific Northwest penetrates the mean West Coast
   ridge and amplifies inland.  By 12Z, that trough should extend from
   the BC Rockies southward to the Sierra then southwestward offshore
   from southern CA.  This will lead to the late-period and day-2
   ejection of a presently cut-off cyclone now located over
   northwestern MX and adjacent waters.  Meanwhile, a positively tilted
   shortwave trough and related vorticity ribbon will eject eastward
   from its present position over the lower Ohio Valley, Ozarks and
   southern Plains.  

   At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from a weak low over SC
   southwestward across the north-central Gulf to another weak
   frontal-wave low over the Gulf east of BRO, then southwestward to
   eastern MX.  The front should proceed southeastward today and
   tonight, reaching south-central FL and the central/southwestern
   Gulf.  Any suitable vertical juxtaposition of favorable low-level
   theta-e with lapse rates aloft to support thunderstorms should
   remain south of that front, and well offshore from the contiguous
   U.S., whether over the Gulf or Atlantic.

   ..Edwards.. 12/15/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: December 15, 2017
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