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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 17, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 17 05:47:36 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140417 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140417 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 170544

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...PERHAPS APPROACHING OR
   BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE SIGNIFICANT EARLY WEEK COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE
   OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH IMPACTED A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF OF
   MEXICO...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. APPEARS LIKELY
   TO REMAIN SEASONABLY LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE
   MID/UPPER PATTERN HAS TRENDED MORE ZONAL...STRONGER FLOW EMERGING
   FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC SPLITS INTO A COUPLE OF BELTS
   EXTENDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

   INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN OF THESE TWO STREAMS WITH ANOTHER
   BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE  SHORT
   WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT.  ONE OF THESE APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GULF
   COAST STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED FORCING
   FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...COUPLED WITH GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTENING WITHIN A BROADENING REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE...MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE MOST VIGOROUS
   CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
   OF MEXICO...BUT WEAK CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   IMPACT GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

   ...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   WHILE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
   BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   PRECIPITABLE WATER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  AND MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
   HOURS.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
   WEAK/UNCLEAR...BUT LIFT ALONG DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES...PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS INTERIOR OR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...IS
   EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS ANY ACTIVITY.  THERE REMAINS
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE EXTENT
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR
   TODAY.  HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST
   MODESTLY STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
   ONE OR TWO STORMS... PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND OR HAIL.

   ..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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