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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 12, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 12 15:33:04 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160212 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160212 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 121533

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
   WESTERN WASHINGTON.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH SAT. ON WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...TWO-PART SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   NOW LOCATED OFF THE WA CST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
   ITS CONTINUES GENERALLY E INTO WA/ORE. POLAR AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
   DOMINATE THE LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS...WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
   CONFINED TO THE PAC NW.

   ...WRN WA TODAY INTO TNGT...
   LEAD PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   SHEARING NE ACROSS FAR WRN WA AND WRN BC LATER TODAY.
   FEEBLE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
   OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND...BUT
   APPRECIABLE THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.  

   A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
   INTO TNGT AS ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
   THE SECOND PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE
   IS NEARING 130W ATTM...AND SHOULD SWEEP INLAND LATER TODAY.
   ATTENDANT STEEPENING OF LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION TO YIELD
   THUNDER.

   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 02/12/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 12, 2016
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