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May 2, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 2 05:55:10 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160502 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160502 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020555

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
   PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
   PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL
   EITHER SIDE A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND
   EMBEDDED HIGH BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE ALBERTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA
   DURING THIS PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM OF A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THIS FEATURE /ONE TO THE
   SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...ANOTHER THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS/...FLOW WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
    AN INITIAL PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROUGHING
   OVER THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
   PROGRESSES THROUGH THIS REGIME.  BUT AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE /CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/...MAY
   STILL MAINTAIN A NOTABLE IDENTITY AS IT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A BELT OF
   MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN MOSTLY TO
   THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   ADVANCING ACROSS/SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
   WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.  EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THIS FRONT
   MAY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST REGION...WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEEPENS
   DURING THE DAY TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

   ...WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY THIS
   AFTERNOON...NEAR AND EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING.  CAPE AROUND
   1000-2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.  STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AFTER
   21-22Z...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION.

   STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...DUE TO SOMEWHAT STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND BACKED/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE
   SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND/NORTHERN VIRGINIA.  AIDED BY
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...ON THE
   NOSE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING TO THE LEE OF THE
   MOUNTAINS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
   WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING.

   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY...
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN TO THE
   WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  STRENGTHENING OF
   PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS TO AT LEAST
   30-40 KTS MAY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE
   VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   ALSO...THE IMPACT OF A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY NOW
   NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS UNCLEAR.  IT
   CURRENTLY SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
   STREAM COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST.  IN BETWEEN...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR.

   ..KERR/PICCA.. 05/02/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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