SPC AC 170448
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms are expected over the Florida Peninsula today.
A pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs -- one currently entering
the central High Plains and the other traversing the northern
Rockies -- will move southeastward within the northwesterly flow
aloft extending from the northern High Plains into the Southeast.
High surface pressure will dominant the eastern CONUS while lee
troughing deepens across the High Plains. Despite this relatively
progressive pattern, a dry and stable continental airmass will
continue to preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the
central and eastern US. The only exception is across FL where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and south of
a slowly southeastward progressing cold front.
A few lightning strikes are possible within elevated convection off
the southern CA coast. Vorticity maximum responsible for this
convection will likely move onshore around 00Z Wednesday. A
lightning strike or two is possible over San Luis Obispo and/or
Santa Barbara counties but overall coverage is expected to remain
too isolated to introduce a general thunderstorm area.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z