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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 25, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 25 05:39:09 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170525 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170525 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250539

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   WY TO CENTRAL KS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night
   across portions of the central High Plains, and during the day
   Thursday across portions of the mid-Atlantic region.

   ...Central Plains...

   Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
   trough over the northern inter-mountain region.  Large-scale forcing
   ahead of this feature should aid a band of mid-level moistening
   across southern WY during the day such that convection should
   develop relatively early in the diurnal cycle as surface
   temperatures warm to near 60F.  It appears a forced-corridor of
   convection will evolve across northern CO/southern WY by early
   afternoon then slowly grow upscale as it spreads/propagates
   southeast into the central High Plains.  While low-level moisture
   will be somewhat lacking, mid-upper 40s dew points should be more
   than adequate for robust surface-based thunderstorm development
   ahead of the short wave.  Forecast soundings across northeast CO
   suggest adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells and large
   hail and gusty winds can be expected with this high-based activity. 
   As LLJ strengthens across the Plains, in response to the short wave,
   strong thunderstorms could spread into northwest KS during the
   evening hours.

   ...Middle Atlantic...

   Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the Middle
   Atlantic region early in the period as a negative-tilt trough
   translates east of the Appalachians.  Latest short-range model
   guidance suggests 500mb speed max will round the base of the trough
   over southern GA at 12z then eject off the Carolina coast during the
   afternoon.  Exit region of this feature should aid convection across
   the Middle Atlantic and isolated strong storms may evolve within a
   corridor of focused ascent.  NAM guidance suggests much of this
   region will see appreciable boundary-layer warming - more than
   adequate for surface-based parcels to reach their convective
   temperatures.  Latest thinking is thunderstorms should concentrate
   across the northern Middle Atlantic where low-level convergence will
   be stronger in the presence of a pronounced east-west surface front
   draped across the Delmarva into southern PA.  Forecast buoyancy is
   not that great across this region but shear profiles seem adequate
   for at least low severe probs, including hail, wind, and perhaps a
   brief tornado.

   ...FL...

   Have opted not to include severe probs across the central and
   southern Peninsula despite the possibility for frontal convection
   early in the period.  Latest short-range guidance, including several
   high-res solutions, differ considerably regarding the coverage and
   intensity with this early-day activity.  With large-scale forcing
   expected to lift north of this region it's not entirely clear how
   organized thunderstorms will be despite convection evolving along
   the southern fringe of strong mid-level flow.  If it becomes clear
   early-day convection will be organized or more robust, severe probs
   may be added at 13z.

   ..Darrow/Mosier.. 05/25/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: May 25, 2017
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