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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 25 05:59:09 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160625 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160625 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250559

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MN AND
   ADJACENT NWRN WI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND ERN
   NEB...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT
   RISK...AND EXTENDING SWWD TO NERN NM...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NC/SC/GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE
   AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND
   WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AREA ON
   SATURDAY...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
   KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN
   ATLANTIC/AWAY FROM THE ERN SEABOARD...THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT WITH
   RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE
   NRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS
   PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS FORECAST ACROSS MN/IA
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH THE
   SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
   BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SW WILL SHIFT MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.  FINALLY...A WEAK/REMNANT COLD FRONT OVER THE
   SOUTHEAST U.S. IS FORECAST TO SAG GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
   WITH TIME...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
   GA/SC AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER -- SHOULD BE
   ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE
   SRN FRINGE OF THESE STORMS AND SOME ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
   BRUSH PARTS OF THE NRN MN VICINITY DURING THE MORNING.

   MEANWHILE...STEADILY FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
   DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN A N-S ZONE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS MODERATE AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  WHILE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN A NNE-SSW
   BAND...STORMS MAY REMAIN CELLULAR INITIALLY...WITH INCREASINGLY
   STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STORM MODE AND
   ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  WITH TIME...STORMS CROSSING MN
   AND -- DURING THE EVENING -- SHIFTING INTO WI SHOULD BECOME MORE
   LINEAR IN ORGANIZATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO POSSIBLY BECOME THE
   PREDOMINANT SEVERE RISK.

   FARTHER TO THE SW...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED FROM IA SWWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT.  WHILE AMPLE CAPE WILL
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY
   WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA.  THEREFORE...SEVERE
   RISK SHOULD LIKEWISE BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT ACROSS KS
   AND SWWD INTO NERN NM.

   SEVERE RISK ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LAST THROUGH MOST
   IF NOT ALL OF THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES PORTION OF THE RISK AREA WHERE SOME THREAT
   MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA...
   DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT
   IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WHICH WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS -- PRIMARILY INVOF THE COLD FRONT
   SAGGING GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN ASSOCIATED/WEAK
   FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED INVOF THE SC/GA VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...REMNANT/MODEST NWLY MID-
   TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   STORMS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
   MARGINAL HAIL AS THEY SHIFT SWD/SEWD INTO EARLY EVENING.

   ..GOSS/COOK.. 06/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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