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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 7, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 7 05:48:56 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150707 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150707 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 070548

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE WY TO SW ND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS IN
   SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
   LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIGHT
   OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
   AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
   DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO QUEBEC BY EARLY WED. AN ATTENDANT COLD
   FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID-MS VALLEY
   WITH TRAILING PORTION STALLING AND EVENTUALLY DECAYING OVER THE SRN
   GREAT PLAINS. 

   ...OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING
   WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY. AS THIS
   OCCURS...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
   SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT A BELT OF MODERATE 700-MB SWLYS SHOULD FOSTER
   A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS
   WITH STRONG GUSTS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE BEFORE
   DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING.

   ...NE WY TO SW ND...
   AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING
   E OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...A NARROW PLUME OF MEAN MIXING RATIOS
   AROUND 9 G/KG SHOULD BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
   WY/SD/MT/ND BORDER REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY WITH
   MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. TIMING OF A MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING
   SE FROM SRN ALBERTA SHOULD FAVORABLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ON THE FRINGE OF 25-30
   KT 500-MB WLYS...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR A COUPLE
   WEAKLY-ROTATING UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   THE MARGINAL BUOYANCY...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
   REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 07/07/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: July 07, 2015
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