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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 26, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 26 19:57:07 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160526 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160526 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261957

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL KS INTO FAR
   NWRN OK...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF KS...SRN NEB...WRN
   OK...W TX...AND NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   NEBRASKA...KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
   TEXAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE
   POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...NW OK INTO KS...
   AN INITIAL RASH OF STORMS CONTAINING MAINLY HAIL CONTINUES TO SHIFT
   NWD ACROSS E CNTRL AND NERN KS. A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
   TO BE DEVELOPING OVER NERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN MO OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE CELLS EVOLVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. HAVE EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK EWD
   ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY AREA.

   TO THE SW...ANOTHER ZONE OF STORMS...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...IS
   EVOLVING NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM S CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK. IT IS
   EXPECTED THAT WITH TIME...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADOES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. IN ADDITION...POCKETS
   OF DRY AIR HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM S TO
   N...EVIDENT IN MESONET OBS AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SMALL STORMS.
   THIS COULD ALSO TEMPORARILY DISRUPT STORMS. A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR
   TWO STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.

   ...SERN TX...
   A COMPLEX OF STORMS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN TX WITH
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES. RADAR AT 2000Z
   SUGGESTS A LIKELY TORNADO OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY. LOW-LEVEL CAPE
   REMAINS VERY HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND THE COMPLEX OF
   STORMS IS PROVIDING ITS OWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE IT CAN ENHANCE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE SRN FLANK. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SMALL
   SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/26/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

   ...NEB/KS...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW NEAR DDC...WITH A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS.  A VERY
   MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
   OF THE LOW...WHERE NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THIS
   AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT OVER PARTS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NEB.  

   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
   OVER SOUTHWEST KS...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. 
   MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MESSY
   WITH MIXED MODES.  HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WIND
   FIELDS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SUGGESTS THE RISK OF STRONG
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS SOME RISK OF MULTIPLE
   ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS AS STORMS EMANATING FROM CO
   MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK.

   ...WESTERN OK/WEST TX...
   MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF TX/OK.  THIS IS LEADING TO
   RAPID BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING/STABILIZATION IN SEVERAL MODEL
   SOLUTIONS.  WHILE THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT...IT IS LIKELY
   OVERDONE.  IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE
   MAINTAINED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED
   SUPERCELL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
   EXIST OVER NORTHWEST OK WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF WIND FIELDS
   AND FORCING WILL OVERLAP.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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