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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 1, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 1 00:53:17 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170501 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170501 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010053

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

   Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
   AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may still impact areas east of the Mississippi Valley
   into the western slopes of the Appalachians tonight with at least
   some risk for severe weather.

   ...Discussion...
   Models continue to indicate further deepening of an already broad
   and deep lower/ mid tropospheric cyclone tonight, with the center
   forecast to track from the central Plains/lower Missouri Valley
   region toward the Upper Midwest/southern Great Lakes region.  The
   potentially broad warm sector of the cyclone, east of the
   Mississippi River has been substantially impacted by prior
   convective development, particularly a swath east of the lower
   Mississippi Valley through much of the Tennessee Valley, in the wake
   of the remnants of a significant mesoscale convective system. 

   With the northeastward advection of elevated mixed layer air from
   the Mexican Plateau and intermountain U.S.  disrupted/cut-off., and
   the mid-level cold core still generally lagging to the west of the
   surface cold front, mid-level lapse rates across much of the warm
   sector are rather modest to weak.  And it is not clear that this
   will change substantially through the remainder of the period,
   though the larger-scale mid-level trough axis is taking on an
   increasing negative tilt across the Plains into the Mississippi
   Valley.

   Still, forcing for ascent has been sufficient to support renewed
   scattered thunderstorm development  across central/southern
   Illinois, where clockwise curved low-level hodographs remain
   characterized by strong to extreme shear,  in the presence of a
   moist boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s surface dew points) and at
   least weak CAPE.  It may not be out of the question that this
   environment could still become supportive of thunderstorms with at
   least some risk for tornadoes this evening.

   Otherwise, further thunderstorm development remains possible later
   tonight ahead of the cold front as it advances east of  the
   Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.  With additional
   strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to 50-70+ kt still forecast
   ahead of it, this would still seem likely to be accompanied by at
   least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts through the Ohio
   Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley,  and along/south of the
   slowing/stalling convective boundary across western Georgia through
   the Florida panhandle.  Slight risk probabilities will be maintained
   across the Florida panhandle into southeastern Alabama, where there
   appears likely to remain a continuing influx of richer boundary
   layer moisture (supporting greater potential instability) off the
   Gulf of Mexico.

   ..Kerr.. 05/01/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 01, 2017
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