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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 30, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 30 19:40:30 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150830 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150830 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301940

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
   OF MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO
   OUTLOOK AREAS APPEAR REQUIRED THIS FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 08/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH CNTRL MT WITH A HARD EDGE TO THE CLOUD DECK SUGGESTING
   STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
   CANADA AND INTO THE NW CONUS -- IS MOVING THROUGH WRN WA WITH
   CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS
   ANTICIPATED. FARTHER E...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF
   ERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. A
   WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO SE AL/SW
   GA WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

   15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN MT FROM
   JUST E OF GGW SWWD THROUGH BIL AND INTO WRN WY...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
   THE CLEARING LINE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WEAK
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS FROM SW TX NEWD THROUGH THE MID MO
   VALLEY AND INTO LWR MI.

   ...CNTRL MT...
   CLEARING TREND BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
   WAVE PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL MT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
   MODEST HEATING IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CASTS SOME DOUBT ONTO JUST HOW CLEAR THE SKIES GET.
   REGARDLESS...FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPING SWLY WINDS
   SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE...SOME INSTABILITY.
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
   THE IMPETUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
   THAT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z AND PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL MT
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT /50-60 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL RESULT IN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
   LONG HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTING TSTM ORGANIZATION AND AT LEAST SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

   ...FL...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
   TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL
   LOW INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. CLOUDINESS AND
   GENERALLY MOIST PROFILES WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LOW WITH A RESULTING
   LOW THREAT OF SVR. SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
   CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BUT MOST
   RECENT GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST JUST OFF THE
   NE FL COAST SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...KEEPING
   THE SEVERE THREAT LOW.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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