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Feb 23, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 23 00:55:17 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180223 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180223 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z


   A risk for scattered thunderstorm activity continues tonight across
   parts of the Ozark Plateau into the southern Plains, and perhaps
   northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley.

   ...01Z Outlook Update...
   Subtropical ridging centered off the south Atlantic coast remains
   rather strong.  Around its northwestern periphery, the large-scale
   flow is generally  anticyclonic from the Rio Grande Valley through
   the Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic region, though there are a
   number of embedded smaller-scale short wave perturbations.  Another
   impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may cross the
   lower Rio Grande Valley by late tonight.  

   Otherwise, an initial perturbation emerging from positively tilted
   larger-scale troughing over the western U.S. is forecast to migrate
   from the north central High Plains toward the Upper Midwest, as a
   much stronger upstream short wave trough continues to dig near the
   Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley.

   Although the track of the lead short wave is well to the west and
   north of a sharp surface frontal zone still stalled across parts of
   the Cumberland Plateau through the lower Mississippi Valley and
   Texas Gulf coast region, a southerly return flow continues to
   contribute to moistening off the western Gulf of Mexico, and above
   the shallow southern edge of the cold surface-based air mass.  This
   is being enhanced across the southeastern Plains into the Ozark
   Plateau by a 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb speed maximum associated
   with the upper wave, which is contributing to scattered ongoing
   thunderstorm development.  As the low-level jet shifts northeastward
   overnight, it appears that associated moistening and destabilization
   could contribute to scattered thunderstorms spreading across parts
   of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys.

   At the same time, lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is expected
   to persist across much of Texas.  Models indicate that this may
   contribute to additional thunderstorm development along the stalled
   leading edge of the deeper cold surge into the southern Plains,
   across northern Texas by late tonight.  Guidance remains suggestive
   that other thunderstorm activity could develop northeast of the
   Mexican Plateau into portions of south central Texas.  Although the
   Texas convection may coincide with some steepening of lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates, it is still not clear that convective
   layer shear and instability will become supportive of the potential
   for much more than generally sub-severe hail in strongest storms.

   ..Kerr.. 02/23/2018



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