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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 22, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 22 00:42:55 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180522 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180522 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220042

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

   Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
   NM SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
   possible this evening over east-central New Mexico southward into
   Far West Texas.  Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the
   main severe threats.

   ...Southern Rockies...
   Radar mosaic early this evening shows a north-south band of cellular
   storms located within a surface trough extending along the I-25
   corridor.  Easterly upslope low-level flow will maintain a moisture
   feed within this general region for the sustenance of thunderstorm
   activity well into the late evening hours.  KEPZ VAD data estimated
   0-6 km shear around 50 kt around 00Z which will support storm
   organization and intensity given the steep lapse rate environment. 
   As storms gradually move east with time, the loss of surface heating
   and increased convective inhibition will favor a lessening of a
   large hail/severe gust risk by late evening.

   ...Central OH...
   A convective line over central OH is located on the southern fringe
   of stronger mid-level flow per KCLE VAD information.  The strength
   of flow decreases rapidly with south extent (mainly south of I-70)
   and the 00Z ILN RAOB sampled this weaker flow regime.  Nonetheless,
   the organized character of the convective line lends the possibility
   for localized damaging gusts for the next few hours before
   convective inhibition and a cooling boundary layer diminish this
   risk.  A risk for marginally severe hail may persist in the near
   term before ceasing by mid evening.

   ..Smith.. 05/22/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 22, 2018
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