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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 23, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 23 00:39:13 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141023 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141023 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230039

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LONG
   ISLAND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
   ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...

   SCT CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST NW OF
   SFC LOW.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
   WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
   SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO LONG ISLAND.  00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX SUPPORTS
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG NELY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC.  WHILE
   ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT ORGANIZATION AT TIMES...THE PROSPECT
   FOR 50KT+ CONVECTIVE WINDS REACHING THE SFC APPEARS TOO LOW TO
   WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   WEAK BUOYANCY BUT MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
   SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK CONVECTION
   AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE
   LIMITED BUOYANCY.

   ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED OFF THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND
   PERHAPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUT WEAK FORCING/BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

   ..DARROW.. 10/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 23, 2014
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