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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 23, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 23 00:59:17 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140723 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140723 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
   REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
   REGION...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO LOWER
   MICHIGAN. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL ALSO REMAIN
   POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS OREGON THIS EVENING.

   ...BLACK HILLS REGION...
   SCATTERED SEVERE HAILSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS WRN
   SD...FAR ERN WY AND PERHAPS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. LONG
   HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT
   CIN INCREASES APPROXIMATELY E OF THE RAPID CITY LONGITUDE WHERE
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MCD 1435.

   ...NRN CA INTO OREGON AND SRN WA...
   ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
   AS STORMS ACROSS CA AND OREGON CONTINUE NWD WITHING A HIGHLY-SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
   MCD 1434.

   ...NRN KS NEWD INTO LOWER MI...
   VERY FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING
   OWING TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
   00Z SOUNDINGS AT DVN AND ILX BOTH SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY BUT ALSO A
   CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY LESS CIN IS PRESENT FARTHER
   SW ACROSS MO AND KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW TCU OVER NRN MO
   AND SRN IA ALONG THE FRONT AND THESE MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
   BECOMING SEVERE AS THEY ARE WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND
   RELATIVELY LITTLE CIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MCD 1436.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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