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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 22, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 22 00:51:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150522 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150522 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220051

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

   VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND A PORTION OF FAR WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL REMAIN A POTENTIAL
   THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
   TEXAS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

   ...SRN NM/FAR WEST TX...
   A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN NM AND
   NRN CHIHUAHUA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD
   THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
   FRIDAY.  LEADING EXTENT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY AIDING THE RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM /DONA ANA AND SIERRA
   COUNTIES/.  A NARROW /GENERALLY N-S/ CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AS OBSERVED WITH THE 00Z EL
   PASO SOUNDING/ EXTENDED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NM SWD INTO NRN
   CHIHUAHUA...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
   FAR WEST TX.  THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS INSTABILITY REMAINS BOUNDED BY
   A STABLE...STRATUS CLOUD COVER LOCATED GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  THE AFOREMENTIONED
   INSTABILITY CORRIDOR COMBINED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AS
   STRENGTHENING W/SWLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SPREAD INTO THIS
   REGION/ SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL POSE A POTENTIAL
   FOR ORGANIZATION INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE TEMPORAL
   WINDOW FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD LAST UNTIL 03-04Z...WHEN
   EITHER THE ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING AND/OR STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE NM/CHIHUAHUA
   TROUGH SPREADS INTO ERN NM/W TX LATER TONIGHT.

   FARTHER NE...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND ERN
   NM THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT PER THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR...MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX.

   ..PETERS.. 05/22/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 22, 2015
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