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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 30, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 30 00:59:24 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160530 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160530 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH NEB/N-CNTRL KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF TX BIG BEND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST
   AR...

   CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS TO BIG COUNTRY OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.

   ...SOUTH PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF TX...
   PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST
   DOWNSTREAM OF A AN MCS OVER NORTHWEST TX. AN AGITATED CU FIELD IS
   EVIDENT SOUTH OF THIS MCS ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY. IT SEEMS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE
   SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THIS CU FIELD WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...STORMS HAVE DECAYED OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. 00Z MIDLAND RAOB SAMPLED
   LARGE MLCIN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AMID
   MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE EASTERN
   EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
   ADVECTION OF DRY 850-MB AIR FROM EAST TX...WHICH WAS SAMPLED BY 00Z
   LAKE CHARLES RAOB.

   ...SOUTH NEB TO NORTH-CENTRAL KS...
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AMID A
   MODEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR PER AREA 00Z RAOBS. INGEST OF
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS /AS SAMPLED BY
   00Z DODGE CITY RAOB/ ALONG WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD RESULT
   IN CONVECTION NOCTURNALLY WANING.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 30, 2016
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