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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 30, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 30 00:58:31 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150730 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150730 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300058

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO
   TN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE...AND
   ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREAT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE...DEEP CYCLONE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
   AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO HUDSON
   BAY.  A BROAD CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM SW CANADA
   THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
   STATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE LEAD TROUGH
   TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 
   THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD MOVE FROM
   SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NW MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z THU.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO TN AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND COLD-POOL ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINES WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
   VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN AREA AND MODERATELY STRONG
   INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN LA.  EACH AREA SHOULD HAVE A DIMINISHING
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHWEST STATES INTO SOUTHERN CA...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A FEW MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
   NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ/SOUTHERN CA AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA
   REGIME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY
   HAVE STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GIVEN A
   STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

   ..PETERS.. 07/30/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 30, 2015
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