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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 18, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 18 00:44:33 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140918 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140918 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 180044

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
   PLAINS AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING.

   SMALL MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU HAS PROGRESSED SSWWD
   INTO FAR NERN OK AND NWRN AR.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
   PROPAGATING AT ROUGHLY 15-20KT AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
   LATEST WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAINS WITH
   THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER ERN CRAWFORD COUNTY AR.  HOWEVER...HAIL
   SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

   FARTHER NW...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
   SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD WITHIN FAVORABLE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW...THOUGH
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE PROGRESSED INLAND ACROSS NWRN MEXICO
   AND ARE SPREADING OVER SERN AZ/SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  WHILE LAPSE
   RATES ARE POOR WITH THIS SYSTEM 00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ SUGGESTS
   SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. 
   ANOTHER PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL FEATURE IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  LONG RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A WEAKENING CIRCULATION
   JUST WEST OF AMA AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS/OUTFLOW SUGGEST
   THIS CLUSTER WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD I-20 BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ..DARROW.. 09/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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