SPC AC 220042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
NM SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WEST TX...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible this evening over east-central New Mexico southward into
Far West Texas. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the
main severe threats.
Radar mosaic early this evening shows a north-south band of cellular
storms located within a surface trough extending along the I-25
corridor. Easterly upslope low-level flow will maintain a moisture
feed within this general region for the sustenance of thunderstorm
activity well into the late evening hours. KEPZ VAD data estimated
0-6 km shear around 50 kt around 00Z which will support storm
organization and intensity given the steep lapse rate environment.
As storms gradually move east with time, the loss of surface heating
and increased convective inhibition will favor a lessening of a
large hail/severe gust risk by late evening.
A convective line over central OH is located on the southern fringe
of stronger mid-level flow per KCLE VAD information. The strength
of flow decreases rapidly with south extent (mainly south of I-70)
and the 00Z ILN RAOB sampled this weaker flow regime. Nonetheless,
the organized character of the convective line lends the possibility
for localized damaging gusts for the next few hours before
convective inhibition and a cooling boundary layer diminish this
risk. A risk for marginally severe hail may persist in the near
term before ceasing by mid evening.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z