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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 25, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 00:58:33 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160825 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160825 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250058

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID
   MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX TO THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   INDIANA INTO NORTHWESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...OH VALLEY...

   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
   VALLEY THIS EVENING.  AT 25/00Z...THIS FEATURE APPEARED TO BE
   LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN LOWER MI...SWD INTO CNTRL IND AND
   APPEARED TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER/ONGOING TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR
   TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  00Z SOUNDING AT ILN EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL
   TURNING IN THE LOWEST 4KM AND WARM ADVECTION HAS CERTAINLY
   CONTRIBUTED TO STORM ROTATION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.  AS VEERED LLJ
   SHIFTS INTO ERN OH IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TRANSLATE
   DOWNSTREAM INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
   AS SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL COOLING IS
   NOW UNDER WAY.  EVEN SO...WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT TORNADO THREAT FOR
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ECNTRL IND INTO NWRN OH TO
   ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING THREAT.

   ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
   NOTED OVER THE PLAINS.  IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES...LATEST NAM
   SUGGESTS LLJ WILL FOCUS INTO WCNTRL MO LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL
   COVERAGE OVER ERN KS INTO NWRN MO AND AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD AID
   THIS EVOLVING COMPLEX AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER
   THIS EVENING.  MRMS HAIL ALGORITHM INDICATES UPDRAFTS PRODUCING
   SEVERE HAIL ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO.  ADDITIONALLY...DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOW-SHAPED ECHOES.

   REF MCD 1586 FOR MORE INFO.

   FARTHER SW...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SMALL COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER NWRN
   TX/SWRN OK WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
   BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE SFC-6KM FLOW FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLGT
   RISK INTO SWRN OK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.

   ..DARROW.. 08/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 25, 2016
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