Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 31, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 31 01:00:07 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140731 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140731 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 310100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
   UNTIL AROUND MID EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE OVER A PART OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THIS
   EVENING.

   ...CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX...

   CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH CNTRL AND SCNTRL OK IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT NE-SW 
   ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NORTH OF A
   STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
   VERY MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...BUT WHERE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE
   RATES HAVE RESULTED IN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
   BETWEEN 400-800 J/KG. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...AND A COUPLE OF STORMS
   HAVE EXHIBITED MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THREAT FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
   EVENING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD INTO SRN OK AND NCTNRL TX...BUT
   OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ...NWRN THROUGH SWRN TX...

   OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS
   NWRN THROUGH SWRN TX WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC WARMING AND
   DEEPER MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF
   1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH BASED AND EXIST WITHIN
   A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING. 

   ...ERN NM...

   MOSTLY HIGH BASED STORMS SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH MID-EVENING.

   ...WRN OR...

   A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED BUT
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN OREGON AHEAD OF A NWD
   MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BUT COVERAGE OF ANY
   SUCH EVENTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SPARSE.

   ..DIAL.. 07/31/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 31, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities