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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 19, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 19 01:03:40 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140419 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140419 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,124 6,786,586 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Ft. Lauderdale, FL...Port Saint Lucie, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME
   HAIL...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

   ...FLORIDA...
   RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN
   19/00Z RAOBS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI HAVE INHIBITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEYS AND FAR
   SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER... MODELS
   INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THIS REGION
   OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
   1.75 INCHES.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST
   WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
   ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.  SO...DESPITE THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS A MID/UPPER JET NOSES
   TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR.

   THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ARE
   SUGGESTIVE THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND OF
   MOISTENING BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
   INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE THROUGH THE
   FORT MYERS AREA.  THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...PERHAPS WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AND
   AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MIAMI METRO AREA BY 09-12Z.


   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN
   BRANCH OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
   U.S...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ONGOING SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE GLASGOW MT AREA. AS
   THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT...TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...THE
   RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS CONVECTION
   WEAKENS DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.

   ADDITIONAL WEAKER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
   OVERNIGHT WITHIN A STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
   NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

   ...SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA INTO ROCKIES...
   AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEAR GENERALLY LARGELY
   DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...BY AROUND 03-04Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/19/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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