Jan 20, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 20 00:58:33 UTC 2017 (20170120 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170120 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170120 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 41,713 3,362,364 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170120 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 41,732 3,364,000 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170120 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 41,723 3,361,666 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170120 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0658 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal risk for isolated damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
   brief tornado, will continue through the evening hours across parts
   of central/southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and western
   Georgia before diminishing later tonight.

   ...Central/Southern AL into the FL Panhandle and Western GA...
   A broken line of thunderstorms extends from east-central AL
   southwestward to the AL Gulf Coast this evening. This line will
   continue moving eastward across this region through the remainder of
   the evening and into the early overnight hours. The airmass
   immediately downstream of ongoing activity remains weakly unstable
   per 00Z RAP mesoanalysis estimates, with MLCAPE generally ranging
   from up to 250 J/kg in east-central AL/western GA to around 500 J/kg
   along the AL/FL coast. This weak instability appears to be the main
   factor that has limited storm intensity so far. Continued low-level
   warm air advection with a 35-45 southwesterly LLJ will support the
   maintenance of the ongoing broken line of thunderstorms for at least
   the next few hours, until an increasingly hostile thermodynamic
   environment with eastward extent (into western GA and the FL
   Panhandle near Tallahassee per 00Z soundings from FFC/TAE) proves
   detrimental to convective potential. In the mean time, an isolated
   damaging wind gust and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with the
   broken line across the remainder of central/southern AL into the
   western FL Panhandle and western GA.

   For additional near-term meteorological details (through about 02Z)
   on this severe threat, see recently issued Mesoscale Discussions 76
   and 77.

   ..Gleason.. 01/20/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z