Aug 25, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 00:58:33 UTC 2016 (20160825 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160825 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160825 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 98,221 8,471,739 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Toledo, OH...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
MARGINAL 209,264 22,921,775 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160825 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 15,153 2,102,460 Toledo, OH...Muncie, IN...Anderson, IN...Findlay, OH...Lima, OH...
2 % 51,464 12,043,871 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160825 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 97,302 8,469,920 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Toledo, OH...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 % 209,226 22,921,756 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160825 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 82,592 6,219,408 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
5 % 208,837 24,982,643 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...
   SPC AC 250058

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID
   MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX TO THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   INDIANA INTO NORTHWESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...OH VALLEY...

   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
   VALLEY THIS EVENING.  AT 25/00Z...THIS FEATURE APPEARED TO BE
   LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN LOWER MI...SWD INTO CNTRL IND AND
   APPEARED TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER/ONGOING TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR
   TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  00Z SOUNDING AT ILN EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL
   TURNING IN THE LOWEST 4KM AND WARM ADVECTION HAS CERTAINLY
   CONTRIBUTED TO STORM ROTATION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.  AS VEERED LLJ
   SHIFTS INTO ERN OH IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TRANSLATE
   DOWNSTREAM INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
   AS SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL COOLING IS
   NOW UNDER WAY.  EVEN SO...WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT TORNADO THREAT FOR
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ECNTRL IND INTO NWRN OH TO
   ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING THREAT.

   ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
   NOTED OVER THE PLAINS.  IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES...LATEST NAM
   SUGGESTS LLJ WILL FOCUS INTO WCNTRL MO LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL
   COVERAGE OVER ERN KS INTO NWRN MO AND AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD AID
   THIS EVOLVING COMPLEX AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER
   THIS EVENING.  MRMS HAIL ALGORITHM INDICATES UPDRAFTS PRODUCING
   SEVERE HAIL ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO.  ADDITIONALLY...DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOW-SHAPED ECHOES.

   REF MCD 1586 FOR MORE INFO.

   FARTHER SW...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SMALL COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER NWRN
   TX/SWRN OK WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
   BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE SFC-6KM FLOW FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLGT
   RISK INTO SWRN OK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.

   ..DARROW.. 08/25/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z