Oct 21, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 21 00:46:35 UTC 2014 (20141021 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141021 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141021 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141021 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141021 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141021 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 210046

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

   VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS
   THE SOUTH FLORIDA VICINITY.  GRADUALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL
   ALSO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NEW
   MEXICO/ARIZONA/WESTERN TEXAS VICINITY.  FINALLY...SHOWERS AND
   OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S.
   /CONSISTING OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND A
   SECOND CROSSING THE ERN STATES/ WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS
   AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE OH VICINITY ATTM INVOF
   THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.  LIKEWISE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM
   OVER PARTS OF SRN FL AND THE KEYS.

   FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM PARTS
   OF ERN NM EWD TO WRN PORTIONS OF TX...NEAR A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW
   LINGERING ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM.  A DIURNAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   FINALLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN CA/PAC NW VICINITY THIS EVENING AS THE WRN
   UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE.

   ..GOSS.. 10/21/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z