Dec 22, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 22 00:55:05 UTC 2014 (20141222 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141222 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141222 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141222 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141222 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141222 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220055

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

   VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
   PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

   ...SOUTHEAST U.S....
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL
   CONUS TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
   THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS THIS AMPLIFICATION
   OCCURS AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES NORTHEAST
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
   PENINSULA TO OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
   NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
   ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY
   HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 300
   J/KG. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

   AS THE CENTRAL GULF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
   EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT /PW IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES/ AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
   FLORIDA WEST COAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE
   STORMS...WHICH MAY BE LOOSELY ORGANIZED OFFSHORE...WILL TEND TO
   WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN NO SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..BUNTING.. 12/22/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z