Aug 27, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 27 00:34:49 UTC 2014 (20140827 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140827 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140827 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140827 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140827 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 82,604 6,544,186 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140827 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 83,037 6,592,360 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
   SPC AC 270034

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
   KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN
   UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA.

   ...ERN KS INTO IL...
   ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING WITHIN AN AREA
   OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ERN KS ACROSS MO AND INTO IL. THESE
   STORMS ARE PROPAGATING ON THEIR OWN ACCORD WITH NO LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT. THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS
   THE AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. UNTIL THEN...LOCALLY DAMAGING
   DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...NWRN AZ INTO SWRN UT AND FAR SERN NV...
   SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
   LOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SWLY UPSLOPE. THE 00Z VEF
   SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY BUT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD
   ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY INTO UT AND FAR ERN NV. ENHANCED FLOW
   ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
   AND WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIN INCREASES. IN
   ADDITION...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/27/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z