Nov 1, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 1 00:45:08 UTC 2014 (20141101 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141101 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141101 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141101 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141101 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141101 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010045

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

   ...CAROLINAS...
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT WITHIN A RESIDUAL PRE-FRONTAL AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   APPEARS TO BE AIDING ONGOING WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF
   CHARLESTON SC NORTHWARD INTO THE CHARLOTTE NC AREA.  AS THIS UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION FIELD PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...AND
   LOWER-LEVELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY COOL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 03-04Z TIME FRAME.

   ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION...
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A PLUME OF RELATIVELY HIGHER
   PRECIPITABLE WATER ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
   BORDER IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED ONGOING WEAK THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WHICH HAS
   MIGRATED INLAND FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE
   SUPPORTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE 03-05Z
   TIME FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION AND THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE IMPULSE TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

   ...CALIFORNIA...
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND ADVANCING
   FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
   AND A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.  PROBABILITIES
   APPEAR LOW...IN GENERAL...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE
   MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. 
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
   QUESTION OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

   ..KERR.. 11/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z