SPC AC 250029
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET MAX THAT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH THE FL
PENINSULA BY 25/12Z. A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
NOW IN PLACE OVER FL...WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME RISK OF ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...00Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POOR. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...IA/IL...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. BEYOND
4-5Z...DIURNAL COOLING WILL PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS.
..HART.. 11/25/2009
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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