Apr 24, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 24 01:14:39 UTC 2014 (20140424 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140424 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140424 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140424 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140424 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140424 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 97,533 3,941,161 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
   SPC AC 240111

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

   ...ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN TO NCNTRL TX...

   THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TX NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
   EAST OF AMARILLO TO NWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
   RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS EAST OF THE
   DRYLINE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM
   NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...POSING A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
   CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...AND THE
   ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND
   NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS ONLY IN MID
   50S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STABILIZATION WITH
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
   MARGINAL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX.

   WV IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   MOVING INTO NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE
   TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
   MERGER...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK SUPPORTED BY DEEPER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL.

   ...CNTRL KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SERN
   NEB...BUT ACTIVITY IS BEING UNDERCUT BY CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND THE
   SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT
   OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
   STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...AT LEAST
   A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
   HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEWD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A
   MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS CNTRL KS.

   ..DIAL.. 04/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z