Jul 25, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 25 00:59:12 UTC 2014 (20140725 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140725 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140725 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,110 388,312 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140725 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 68,797 387,160 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140725 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 70,366 388,472 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
5 % 253,916 14,990,398 Minneapolis, MN...Raleigh, NC...St. Paul, MN...Durham, NC...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140725 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 70,037 388,016 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
5 % 256,667 15,046,240 Minneapolis, MN...Raleigh, NC...St. Paul, MN...Durham, NC...Des Moines, IA...
   SPC AC 250059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE
   WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
   REGION...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY LINGERING
   STRONGER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING
   AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
   NOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
   OVERNIGHT.  ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   ALREADY APPEARS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...WITH
   THE BULK OF THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW SEEMING LIKELY TO REMAIN
   ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST WITHIN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS
   THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME.

   ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS GENERALLY LAG TO THE
   WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS IS STRONG BENEATH
   30-40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  GIVEN SIZABLE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 3000+ J/KG WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...SUBSTANTIVE
   CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
   THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
    HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL
   BE MITIGATED BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF VERY WARM AND STRONGLY
   CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER UNTIL WEAK TO
   MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.

   ...MINNESOTA/IOWA...
   AS THE 30-40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
   SOUTH DAKOTA STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS
   EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
   QUESTION THAT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR COULD SUPPORT NEW
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A RELATIVELY
   COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

   ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
   WEAKENING OF LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS ALREADY
   WELL UNDERWAY.  THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH ANY RISK
   FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY
   AFTER 03Z.

   ..KERR.. 07/25/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z