Jul 23, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 23 01:00:39 UTC 2016 (20160723 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160723 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160723 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 117,352 558,077 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Aberdeen, SD...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...
MARGINAL 268,487 17,268,721 Boston, MA...Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160723 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 57,150 339,654 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160723 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 117,999 560,468 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Aberdeen, SD...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...
5 % 268,602 17,833,905 Boston, MA...Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160723 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 113,612 531,072 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Aberdeen, SD...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...
5 % 219,626 5,885,384 Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...
   SPC AC 230100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT THROUGH ND AND NRN
   SD...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
   THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST
   THIS EVENING INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
   INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA.
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING OVER WRN AND
   NRN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS OVER A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...ERN MT THROUGH ND...

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH SRN ND ALONG A SURGING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS IN GENERAL HAVE NOT BEEN VERY ORGANIZED BUT
   WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH MID
   EVENING AS THEY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY
   /2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/.  OTHER STORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NCNTRL MT
   AND MIGHT PERSIST AS THEY INTERCEPT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY OVER NERN MT WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN
   ND WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING LLJ
   DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
   OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY AND STABILIZING EFFECTS
   OF ONGOING STORMS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT
   DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT.  

   ...ERN SD THROUGH IA...

   A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT
   ALONG AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD
   INTO IA. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   COVERAGE OF STORMS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A MARGINAL RISK
   FOR THIS REGION.

   ..DIAL.. 07/23/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z