Sep 3, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 3 00:56:49 UTC 2015 (20150903 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150903 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150903 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150903 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150903 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150903 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030056

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
   CAROLINA TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO...OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
   TONIGHT.  SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AND POORLY
   FOCUSED FOR ANY RISK AREAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
   OVER PAC COAST REGION...EXTENDING SWD FROM CYCLONE OVER BC...AND
   DOWNSTREAM RIGS FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THAT RIDGE...THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...
   1.  OVER WI...WRN LOWER MI AND WRN LS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
   ESEWD ACROSS UPPER MI AND NRN LM THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
   2.  OVER VA...FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE SEWD OFF ATLC
   COAST NEAR HAMPTON ROADS OVERNIGHT.
   3.  PERSISTENT...ELONGATED...QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC-SHEAR ZONE
   FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD ACROSS WRN GULF THEN NEWD OVER MID SOUTH TO
   LOWER OH VALLEY.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED/MESOSCALE VORTICES WERE
   APPARENT...THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
   PRESENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION THROUGH 12Z. 

   AT SFC...NEBULOUS PATTERN WAS APPARENT AT 00Z OVER MOST OF
   CONUS...DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS WEAK LOWS...TROUGHS
   AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  EXCEPTIONS INCLUDED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
   ZONE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW OVER SRN WI/MN
   BORDER AREA...THEN NWWD ACROSS NWRN MN.  WAVY DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT
   FROM SRN SK ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WRN SANDHILLS OF NEB...WRN KS...AND
   N-S SEGMENT OF TX/NM BORDER...SWD ACROSS TX BIG BEND REGION.

   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NC/VA TIDEWATER...
   ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED/CLUSTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS BROAD
   SWATH FROM NRN WI AND PORTIONS UPPER MI...LOWER MI...LE...AND
   OH...TO NERN NC.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SELY
   THROUGH EVENING WITH SLOW WEAKENING OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   EXPECTED OVERALL.  AN ISOLATED DAMAGING TSTM GUST WITH WINDS APCHG
   SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE FROM WI AND LOWER MI TO NERN
   NC...WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN SUPPORT
   SUBSTANTIAL WATER LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WITH GRADUAL
   DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND GROWING COVERAGE OF OUTFLOWS EACH ACTING TO
   STABILIZE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS SWATH...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME TOO ISOLATED AND UNFOCUSED TO
   WARRANT CONTINUATION OF AOA 5%/MRGL CATEGORICAL DESIGNATIONS. 

   ...AZ...SRN ROCKIES...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WERE EVIDENT OVER ROUGHLY ERN
   1/2 OF AZ...MUCH OF NM EXCEPT SERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS WRN/SRN CO.
    MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH HEATING OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
   LATE-AFTN MLCINH.  AVBL/OBSERVED RAOBS OVER THIS REGION DEPICT
   FAVORABLY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG
   GUSTS...BUT ALSO...ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYNESS THAT ONLY A FEW DEG
   F SFC COOLING IS NEEDED IN MOST INSTANCES TO ERADICATE MOST MLCAPE
   PRESENT.  WHILE A DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RISK IS TOO
   ISOLATED/UNFOCUSED TO PLACE ANY DEFINITIVE CATEGORICAL AREAS.

   ..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z