Feb 23, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 23 00:36:07 UTC 2017 (20170223 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170223 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170223 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170223 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170223 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170223 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230036

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

   ...WI/MI...
   Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and compact shortwave trough
   over MN.  This feature will track across WI and MI overnight. 
   Models differ on the extent of deep convective activity associated
   with this feature, but some potential exists for scattered showers
   and thunderstorms from parts of central WI into northern Lower MI
   and parts of Upper MI.  There is a corridor across central and
   northern Lower MI where forecast soundings suggest some risk of hail
   and gusty winds - if storms form in that area.  Have opted to
   maintain the ongoing less-than-5% severe forecast, but cannot rule
   out a strong to severe storm overnight.

   ...Pacific Northwest Coast...
   A series of shortwave troughs continue to rotate into parts of
   western WA/OR and northern CA.  Each of these features provide a
   mesoscale region of lift/instability capable of supporting
   occasional lightning strikes.  This process will continue overnight,
   but should be focused along the immediate WA/OR and northern CA
   coast.

   ...FL...
   An upper low is moving slowly eastward across the FL Peninsula this
   evening, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The
   coverage of thunderstorms is expected to continue to diminish
   through the evening, with the east coast of the peninsula having the
   greater chance of a few lightning strikes overnight.

   ..Hart.. 02/23/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z