Apr 18, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 18 01:02:36 UTC 2014 (20140418 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140418 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140418 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140418 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140418 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140418 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   EVENING...WHILE REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
   PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.  CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND MORE
   WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
   CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

   ...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CONSOLIDATION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID
   LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER BELT EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
   EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF
   LARGER SCALE SHORT TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
   TONIGHT.  THE LEAD WAVE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
   AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

   THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY AN INFLOW OF MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED AIR...LIKELY WILL REMAIN
   FOCUSED NEAR A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
   MEXICO.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND STRONG TO
   SEVERE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS
   OR WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY.  RAIN AND EMBEDDED
   THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THIS COMPLEX MAY...HOWEVER...IMPACT
   COASTAL AREAS FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
   OVERNIGHT.

   OTHERWISE...REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE TAMPA AREA BY 01-02Z...BEFORE CONTINUING TO
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH/DISSIPATE.

   ...PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
   SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...APPEARS TO
   BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
   DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
   NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE SPREADING
   NORTHEASTWARD ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 03-04Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/18/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z