Aug 4, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 4 01:00:35 UTC 2015 (20150804 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150804 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150804 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 194,505 22,723,978 Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
MARGINAL 450,091 53,661,107 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150804 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 360,621 37,467,572 Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150804 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 189,366 22,062,711 Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Rochester, NY...
5 % 435,197 53,255,686 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150804 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 132,888 19,981,401 Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
5 % 423,748 49,819,056 New York, NY...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...
   SPC AC 040100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE
   MID OH VALLEY AREA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
   VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE
   OH VALLEY...AND WWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND
   INTO THE CO ROCKIES VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR
   HAIL.  ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
   PANHANDLES AND VICINITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO THE MID OH VALLEY...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM ME SWWD TO
   SWRN OH/NRN KY...INVOF A WEAK/SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  MODEST
   INSTABILITY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
   TIME...SUPPORTING A CORRESPONDING/GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORMS/SEVERE
   RISK THIS EVENING.

   FARTHER SW ACROSS NY AND PA...INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A
   CONTINUATION OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW
   SEVERE RISK TO LINGER INTO MID EVENING.  

   FINALLY...AREAS STILL FARTHER SW INTO OH/KY MAY SEE SEVERE RISK
   LINGER THE LONGEST...GIVEN MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
   RANGE PER RAOB DATA AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM
   CLUSTERS.

   ...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND VICINITY...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY -- AS REVEALED BY EVENING AMA RAOB AND
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS -- CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES AND VICINITY.  WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
   WEAK...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP TO
   BOTH MAINTAIN STORMS AS WELL AS PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
   AND HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 08/04/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z