Jun 26, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 26 01:01:09 UTC 2016 (20160626 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160626 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160626 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 28,011 487,110 Wausau, WI...Marquette, MI...Weston, WI...Merrill, WI...
SLIGHT 30,871 1,397,943 Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Eau Claire, WI...Neenah, WI...Stevens Point, WI...
MARGINAL 213,649 9,269,971 Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160626 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 59,130 1,908,649 Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Eau Claire, WI...Wausau, WI...Neenah, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160626 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 27,909 487,109 Wausau, WI...Marquette, MI...Weston, WI...Merrill, WI...
15 % 30,881 1,397,131 Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Eau Claire, WI...Neenah, WI...Stevens Point, WI...
5 % 212,704 9,227,504 Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160626 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 271,702 11,138,693 Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...
   SPC AC 260101

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN WI AND
   WESTERN UPPER MI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
   ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST CO AND
   NORTHEAST NM...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A LINE OF OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER
   MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER
   THREAT DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG
   STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS KANSAS INTO
   SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...MAINLY THIS
   EVENING...WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
   ACROSS IOWA TO NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
   U.S./CANADA BORDER...WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...REACHING NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.  A BAND
   OF 60-75-KT WESTERLY WINDS ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.  A SOUTHWESTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 45-50 KT...AND EXTENDING INTO
   NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF
   MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY...AND ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   SUSTAINED LINEAR STORM MODE.  STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT AS THE ONGOING LINEAR MCS ADVANCES
   ACROSS NORTHERN WI...UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING TO THE
   EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   ...NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH KS TO IA/NORTHERN MO...
   A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
   TONIGHT...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION MOVING THROUGH IA AND INTO
   NORTHEAST KS BY 12Z...WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TENDS TO STALL
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHEAST NM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING STORMS EXTENDING FROM
   NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO NORTHEAST NM AND A FEW THAT REMAIN IN SOUTHEAST
   CO.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION THROUGH THIS
   EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH THIS THREAT.

   MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE COULD INCREASE
   ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THROUGH IA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS YET TO DEVELOP...OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN
   CENTRAL IA.  RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AS EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF MONSOONAL
   MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES COULD SUPPORT STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

   ..PETERS.. 06/26/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z