Sep 23, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 23 00:57:23 UTC 2014 (20140923 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140923 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140923 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140923 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 36,968 1,106,641 Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Parker, CO...Castle Rock, CO...Cimarron Hills, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140923 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 52,514 2,273,030 Colorado Springs, CO...Savannah, GA...Pueblo, CO...Parker, CO...Castle Rock, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140923 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 37,052 1,122,068 Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Parker, CO...Castle Rock, CO...Cimarron Hills, CO...
   SPC AC 230057

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH MAY REMAIN STRONG TO
   SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE COLORADO HIGH
   PLAINS.  AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH
   SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
   VICINITY.

   ...CO HIGH PLAINS...
   SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM WY SWD INTO NM/ERN
   AZ...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE NERN CO HIGH PLAINS.
    WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ABOVE A DRY SUB-CLOUD
   LAYER...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW...A FEW STRONGER CELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZES AND CONVECTION WEAKENS.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
   WEAKENING TREND...WILL REMOVE SLIGHT RISK AND MAINTAIN ONLY A 5%
   RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

   ...SERN PARTS OF SC AND GA...
   SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC
   AND SRN NC...SRN GA...AND THEN SWD ACROSS FL AND WWD ALONG THE GULF
   COASTAL VICINITY INTO TX.  THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
   DISORGANIZED -- WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. 
   ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST...SEVERE RISK HAS LARGELY ENDED
   OVER THIS REGION.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   PAC NW ATTM...MOST NUMEROUS OVER ERN OREGON JUST E OF A VORT MAX
   APPROACHING THE COAST.  WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST BUT
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS W
   OF THE AREA /I.E. NEARER THE VORT MAX/.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE
   ONSET OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST.

   ..GOSS.. 09/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z