Sep 28, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 00:54:11 UTC 2016 (20160928 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160928 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160928 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160928 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160928 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160928 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280054

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
   STATES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SSEWD INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GULF COAST
   STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE
   WEAK INSTABILITY...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z