Dec 3, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 3 00:50:51 UTC 2016 (20161203 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161203 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161203 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 28,525 1,152,015 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Victoria, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...Kingsville, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161203 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 16,994 823,832 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...Portland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161203 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,270 823,926 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...Portland, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161203 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 28,378 1,152,010 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Victoria, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...Kingsville, TX...
   SPC AC 030050

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT.

   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
   MEXICO AND ARIZONA BORDER WITH SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING
   ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...
   A LOW IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING
   EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF TEXAS INTO THE
   WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S FAHRENHEIT
   ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHERE THE RAP IS ANALYZING A SMALL POCKET OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
   RANGE.  THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THIS
   EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES DUE TO
   A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL
   FORECASTS INCLUDING THE HRRR...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
   WILL INITIATE THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
   LAREDO.  THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
   TEXAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  IN ADDITION TO
   THE INSTABILITY...THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI
   SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
   ROTATION WITHIN THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.  ANY STORM THAT CAN
   EXHIBIT ROTATION WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL.  THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THE POOR LAPSE RATES
   THAT ARE EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  FOR THIS
   REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH 12Z
   SATURDAY.

   ..BROYLES.. 12/03/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z