May 1, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 1 00:54:40 UTC 2016 (20160501 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160501 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160501 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 22,673 1,965,827 St. Louis, MO...Conway, AR...Belleville, IL...Oakville, MO...Granite City, IL...
MARGINAL 55,031 4,382,251 Little Rock, AR...Springfield, IL...Decatur, IL...St. Charles, MO...North Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160501 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160501 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 77,698 6,350,570 St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, IL...Decatur, IL...St. Charles, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160501 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 22,807 1,988,399 St. Louis, MO...Conway, AR...Belleville, IL...Oakville, MO...Granite City, IL...
5 % 55,064 4,372,462 Little Rock, AR...Springfield, IL...Decatur, IL...St. Charles, MO...North Little Rock, AR...
   SPC AC 010054

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS  PARTS OF
   NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   STRONGEST LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED
   IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH...TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A
   SURFACE LOW NEAR QUINCY IL INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  SEASONABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   APPEARS TO HAVE SUPPORTED MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS.  THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
   AND NORTH OF A CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOSING EAST
   NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  

   ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...AS IT APPEARS CONVECTION HAS IMPACTED
   MUCH OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING ELSEWHERE COMMENCES.

   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY.
    HOWEVER...LINGERING MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY MAY
   MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT
   LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH.  THIS COULD BE SUPPORTED BY RESIDUAL
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOR A PERIOD...AFTER INHIBITION BEGINS
   TO INCREASE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
   RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING.

   ..KERR.. 05/01/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z