Sep 30, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 30 00:21:36 UTC 2014 (20140930 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140930 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140930 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 61,923 243,307 North Platte, NE...Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...Tucumcari, NM...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140930 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,454 76,001 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 15,645 98,456 North Platte, NE...Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140930 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 44,730 207,897 North Platte, NE...Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...
5 % 108,026 1,030,495 Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...Kearney, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140930 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 42,871 147,358 Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...Tucumcari, NM...
5 % 93,519 1,534,097 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...
   SPC AC 300021

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO...WRN NEB...WRN
   KS...AND NERN NM...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT CURRENTLY EXTEND
   FROM NERN CO SWD INTO NERN NM AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   STORMS HAVE TAKEN ON A LINEAR MODE OVER MUCH OF ERN CO WHERE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST...SUGGESTING MAINLY A WIND THREAT.
   RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR NEAR THIS LINE MAY STILL
   YIELD AREAS OF ROTATION OR A BRIEF TORNADO BEFORE DISSIPATING
   SOMEWHERE OVER W-CNTRL NEB/WRN KS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE GREATER
   INSTABILITY.

   TO THE S...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PERSIST WITH A HAIL THREAT. THESE
   CELLS TOO WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE A SMALL DISTANCE INTO TX. 00Z
   SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND AMA BOTH SHOW WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
   ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z