Apr 1, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 00:56:09 UTC 2015 (20150401 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150401 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150401 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 88,462 9,133,970 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Birmingham, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...
MARGINAL 182,299 12,273,500 Jacksonville, FL...Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150401 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150401 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 174,223 13,141,502 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150401 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 88,462 9,133,970 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Birmingham, AL...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...
5 % 181,634 12,262,372 Jacksonville, FL...Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
   SPC AC 010056

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN INTO CNTRL AND SRN
   OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NERN AR SEWD INTO NRN AL
   AND CNTRL GA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   EWD INTO THE SERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE FORECAST THIS
   EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EASTWARD
   ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND
   GEORGIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH
   A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL-NRN PLAINS.  EMBEDDED
   WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ESEWD
   THROUGH MS/AL TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ESEWD THROUGH
   THE MS VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.  A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
   OPEN/WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND REACHES THE
   MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  

   ...OK/N TX...
   EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 88D VAD DATA SHOW LOW-LEVEL
   DIFLUENCE ACROSS WRN AR INTO FAR ERN OK AND THIS WILL PROBABLY PROVE
   DETRIMENTAL FOR APPRECIABLE STORM COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA.  THE
   THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS FOCUSED FARTHER W WHERE
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORMS NEAR THE
   DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD OR PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
   FARTHER E INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OK THIS EVENING.  DESPITE THE
   PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED W-E ACROSS CNTRL OK ...STORM
   COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
   CAN OFFSET COOLING SURFACE TEMPS THIS EVENING.  DESPITE THESE
   CONCERNS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THE 01/00Z OUN RAOB SUPPORT THE
   CONTINUATION OF A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF LARGE HAIL BEFORE A GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE
   STORM RISK BY LATE EVENING.  

   ...AR ESEWD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
   RATHER COMPLEX LOW-LEVEL SETUP RESULTANT FROM EARLIER/ONGOING
   CONVECTION AND SUBSTANTIAL MIXING OF MOISTURE OVER SRN MS/AL WILL
   FAVOR MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NEAR AND S OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
   SEGMENT FROM WRN TN INTO CNTRL GA.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN
   THE 50S ARE YIELDING MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MODERATE
   BUOYANCY WITHIN A MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. 
   HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ISOLD WITH TIME BEFORE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
   BY MID-LATE EVENING.

   ..SMITH.. 04/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z