May 25, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 25 00:49:32 UTC 2015 (20150525 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150525 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150525 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 84,015 6,674,451 St. Louis, MO...Aurora, IL...Joliet, IL...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
MARGINAL 225,420 20,208,194 Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150525 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 12,350 780,384 Davenport, IA...Moline, IL...Rock Island, IL...Bettendorf, IA...Clinton, IA...
2 % 223,535 25,136,144 Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150525 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 83,754 6,669,667 St. Louis, MO...Aurora, IL...Joliet, IL...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
5 % 222,593 19,709,664 Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150525 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 34,429 234,722 Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Liberal, KS...
5 % 96,367 1,143,289 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Del Rio, TX...Dodge City, KS...
   SPC AC 250049

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
   TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS OF KANSAS AND
   OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
   UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...A BELT OF 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
   NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...ALLOWING FOR ONLY RATHER MODEST CAPE OF 500
   TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...MOMENTUM/VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE JET COULD STILL ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW ADVANCING
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALONG A WARM
   FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
    AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   ONGOING NARROW LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
   WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.  THE MOST
   SUBSTANTIVE AND LONGER LASTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY
   INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...PROBABLY WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. 
   THIS IS WHERE WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME ENHANCED
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A
   SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR WILL PERSIST.

   OTHERWISE...MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

   ..KERR.. 05/25/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z