Nov 24, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 24 00:43:47 UTC 2014 (20141124 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141124 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141124 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 38,698 3,219,411 Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...
MARGINAL 30,815 4,434,441 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141124 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 38,831 3,237,427 Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...
2 % 30,625 4,445,290 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141124 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 38,414 3,215,082 Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...
5 % 30,734 4,378,931 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Fayetteville, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141124 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240043

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST FL INTO
   COASTAL GA/SC/NC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN FL TO FAR SE VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO
   COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

   ...FAR NORTHEAST FL INTO THE CAROLINAS...

   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
   THEY SHIFT E/NE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE A BETTER
   JUXTAPOSITION OF KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL LIE
   JUST OFFSHORE COASTAL GA/SC...AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE FROM EXTREME NE
   FL N/NE THROUGH COASTAL GA/SC WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF CONDITIONS
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO...IN
   ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. SEE MCD 1947 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 

   AS A SFC WARM FRONT NEAR CHARLESTON SC MOVES NWD OVERNIGHT...THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT N/NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
   NC. A MORE MARGINAL STRONG WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST FROM NORTHERN FL
   INTO CNTRL SC N/NE TOWARD FAR SE VA.

   ..LEITMAN.. 11/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z