May 26, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 26 00:57:51 UTC 2016 (20160526 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160526 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160526 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 116,060 2,717,965 Wichita, KS...Sioux Falls, SD...San Angelo, TX...Sioux City, IA...Salina, KS...
MARGINAL 431,975 34,282,292 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160526 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,100 1,100,825 Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Emporia, KS...Derby, KS...
2 % 173,110 7,284,914 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160526 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 54,208 1,521,435 Wichita, KS...San Angelo, TX...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Del Rio, TX...
5 % 494,761 35,611,196 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160526 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 116,087 2,722,931 Wichita, KS...Sioux Falls, SD...San Angelo, TX...Sioux City, IA...Salina, KS...
5 % 432,562 34,407,609 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 260057

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA
   AND SWWD ACROSS NEB...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND
   ADJACENT NRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   CONUS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE TX SLIGHT RISK
   AND EXTENDING SEWD INTO S TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS.   HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER/SHIFT INTO PARTS
   OF TEXAS NEAR THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE HAIL WOULD
   LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE RISK.

   ...THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING
   ISOLATED/INTENSE SUPERCELLS -- ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE PLAINS FROM ERN SD SWWD INTO NERN CO...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF
   ERN KS AND INTO ADJACENT NRN OK.  

   THE DAKOTAS/NEB/NERN CO STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG A WEAK/ADVANCING COOL FRONT.  WITH 40 KT
   WSWLYS AT MID-LEVELS CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE SHEAR...EXPECT SEVERE
   RISK -- MAINLY FOR HAIL -- TO CONTINUE.  UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
   STORMS INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS SEEMS POSSIBLE...MOVING ACROSS
   SRN MN/IA OVERNIGHT.

   FARTHER S INTO KS/OK...ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE
   DRYLINE...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM -- LIKELY STILL TORNADIC ATTM
   -- MOVING ACROSS NRN DICKINSON CO KS.  THIS STORM SEEMS TO BE
   OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE WITH OUTFLOW FROM
   PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHERE FAVORABLY BACKED SURFACE WIND
   INCREASING/VEERING TO WSWLY AT MID LEVELS IS YIELDING SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ROTATION.  WHILE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
   SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THIS AREA...STORMS APPEAR
   LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS KS/MO
   OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ONGOING RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION ON THE KS SUPERCELLS...PLEASE
   REFER TO RECENTLY ISSUED SWOMCD 731.

   ...PORTIONS OF TX INVOF THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF NERN MEXICO...WITH
   HIGH-BASED CELLS ALSO DEVELOPING INVOF THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. 
   SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS/MOVE INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...AS QG FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHING CROSSING NRN MEXICO ATTM.  PRESUMING STORMS EVOLVE ACROSS
   THIS AREA...OBSERVED ENVIRONMENTAL CAPE/SHEAR SUGGESTS RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND
   GUST OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ..GOSS.. 05/26/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z