Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 22, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 22 05:45:12 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140722 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140722 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220545

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD
   TOWARD SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A CLUSTER OF
   SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION...WITH MORE
   ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
   RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO ERN MT. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL FLATTEN THE NERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...MOVING FROM THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW
   WILL DEEPEN IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO...WITH A
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN MO AND NRN KS.
   ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
   RESIDE...WHICH WILL FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.


   TO THE W...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
   THE UPPER HIGH...AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE BC COAST.
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   OREGON...ID...WRN MT AND FAR NRN NV.

   ...NRN KS/SRN NEB EWD ACROSS IL AND INDIANA...
   A MARGINALLY-SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   FROM NRN WI NWD ACROSS WRN UPPER MI BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.
   LATER IN THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SEWD FROM NRN IL INTO NRN
   KS...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. VERY HOT AIR WILL EXIST
   OVER KS...WHERE SEVERE DIURNAL STORMS CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL FORM NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING...OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE
   FRONT FROM NRN MO ACROSS NRN IL WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT. SEVERAL
   MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS
   ACROSS IL/IND DURING THE EVENING WITH A WIND THREAT.

   ...BLACK HILLS REGION...
   A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM SK/MB SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT
   SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO A SELY UPSLOPE DIRECTION BY LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
   BENEATH COOL PROFILES AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE REMAINING FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR CELLULAR ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH TIME.

   ...OREGON...ID...WRN MT...NRN NV...
   SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL MATERIALIZE OWING
   TO AN INTENSIFYING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
   THE PACIFIC TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND AREAS OF AROUND 500 J/KG
   MUCAPE. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL CORES AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH EVENING.

   ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 07/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 22, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities