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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 30, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 30 05:40:05 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160630 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160630 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300540

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SRN
   VA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AN ARC FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
   TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO OVER THE  CAROLINAS INTO
   SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA LATE
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MIDWEST BY EARLY EVENING AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
   BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SWWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE
   LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FARTHER W...A
   MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   CONTINUING WITH PRIOR OUTLOOK SENTIMENT IN ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY
   NEBULOUS SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A BROAD REGION.  THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FOCUS OVER MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
   DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.  A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /70
   DEG DEWPOINT OVER NRN MO TO THE LOWER 60S OVER N-CNTRL WI/ WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY.  STRONG HIGH-LEVEL WLY FLOW
   WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND PRIMARILY RESULT IN A HAIL/WIND
   RISK WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  MODEL VARIABILITY IN STORM
   COVERAGE/PLACEMENT LENDS PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS AND WILL DEFER THE
   INCLUSION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  FARTHER S AND W...THE
   RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO
   INTO NORTHERN OK/AR...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY
   MODIFIED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG HEATING TO THE S/SW OF THIS
   BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
   AMID MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLY/S...A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
   AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS MAY FORM WITH ATTENDANT RISKS OF ISOLATED
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAKER DEEP SHEAR
   RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   BE MORE MARGINAL. 

   ...CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN VA...
   A BELT OF MODESTLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL SWLY/S SHOULD YIELD
   A SWATH OF AROUND 20-25 KT WINDS AT 500 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   MOST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND
   COASTAL SEA BREEZE. SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR MAINLY LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...N-CNTRL MT...
   A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES
   LATE IN THE DAY WITH A TRAILING LOBE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT
   OVERSPREADING THE NWRN QUADRANT OF MT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.  UPPER 40S TO 50S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ABUT TO THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AS A LEE TROUGH AND SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
   MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT MAY RESULT IN A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.

   ..SMITH/CONIGLIO.. 06/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: June 30, 2016
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