SPC AC 240518
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
   DAY ONE PERIOD.  DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE MID/LOWER MO
   VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN SYSTEM WHILE ACCELERATING
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  IN ITS WAKE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION WHILE DIGGING SEWD
   FROM ALBERTA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MO WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD
   LAKE MI WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...AND SWD THROUGH S TX INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.
   
   ...S TX...
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE SAMPLED BY 24/00Z BRO SOUNDING IS LIKELY
   REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF FRONT
   TODAY.  THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
   TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
   AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER 
   THREAT. 
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   
   SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN W-E ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
   ZONE WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BUT ANY HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 7-8 KM AGL.  GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK LOW TO
   MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD AND POOR LAPSE RATES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   STORMS APPEARS LOW.
   
   ...MIDWEST...
   
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   LEAD MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POCKETS OF WEAK
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
   ELEVATED TSTMS ALONG SURFACE LOW TRACK.
   
   ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 11/24/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z