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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 6, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 6 05:29:39 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160506 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160506 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 060529

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED-SEVERE THREAT...ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL AID IN FOCUSING ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN U.S. WHILE A
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE CNTRL STATES TO THE W OF AN ERN
   SEABOARD LOW/TROUGH.  TO THE N OF THE RIDGE...A STRONG DISTURBANCE
   OVER S-CNTRL CANADA WILL MOVE EWD WHILE A FRONT SAGS SWD INTO THE
   N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
   DURING THE DAY OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN...TO THE S OF SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE NESTLED TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   FARTHER E...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   INVOF THE FRONT.  
    
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE ERN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN
   U.S. MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OVERSPREAD A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS /PW
   RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 0.8 INCH/.  APPRECIABLE 12-HR H5 HEIGHT FALLS
   /30 TO 60 M/ WILL OVERSPREAD UT/CO DURING THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH
   THE EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE 4
   CORNERS. THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE
   HEATING AIDING IN STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL PROMOTE
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SHOWS UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG SBCAPE
   DEVELOPING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMIDST WIND PROFILES
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.  AS STORMS INTENSIFY...MICROBURSTS
   CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.  AN
   ACCOMPANYING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGEST CORES.  THE STRONG/SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
   CONSIDERABLY AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STABILIZATION OCCUR
   DURING THE EVENING.  

   ...N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS WY.  45-50 DEG F DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD WEAK TO
   MODERATE BUOYANCY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/SEVERE
   GUSTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..SMITH/COOK.. 05/06/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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