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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 24, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 24 05:42:28 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160824 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160824 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240542

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MANITOBA WHILE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN
   OPEN WAVE. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
   MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES WITH
   THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THESE SHORTWAVES
   CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA SWWD INTO NRN CA BY
   12Z THU. FARTHER S...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
   THE SE CONUS WHILE CONFLUENT SWLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
   AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THIS CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
   THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AS THEIR
   PROGRESSION AND THE STRENGTH OF THEIR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
   UNCERTAIN. DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH-RES  GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
   AGREEMENT THAT THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE TX
   S PLAINS GRADUALLY CONTINUE NEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
   EARLY MORNING AND THE LWR MO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
   CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER HEATING WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   INCREASE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES REACHES THE REGION AND WAA INCREASES IN RESPONSE
   TO THE LLJ.  ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   LIKELY BE E OF THE AREA BUT ENOUGH FLOW WILL STILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
   OCCASIONALLY STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL. THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP S OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE.

   FARTHER N /ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
   REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OUTFLOW OF
   THE SHOWERS/ELEVATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
   THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
   40-45 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS /IF THE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
   DISCRETE/ AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...WITH A RESULTING THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A LOW TORNADO RISK ALSO EXISTS GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS. 

   ...LOWER MI...
   LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   /ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WI/
   IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI DURING AFTERNOON. MODEST FLOW
   AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SVR
   THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER/DEAN.. 08/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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