Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 25, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 25 05:36:24 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141025 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141025 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250536

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CA AND
   SOUTHWEST OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
   CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS
   MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE
   NEW YORK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...PACIFIC COAST...

   LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION OFF THE NRN CA COAST...CENTERED NEAR 39N/130W.  THIS
   FEATURE IS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE OREGON COAST AND SHOULD MOVE
   INLAND AFTER 18Z AS 80-100KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO ERN
   OREGON AND WEAKENS.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 150M SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WRN OREGON INTO WA
   DURING THE DAY.  WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
   FOCUS NORTH OF MRGL RISK REGION...SRN EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXTEND INTO NRN CA WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  PRIMARY
   NEGATIVES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE MODEST LAPSE RATES/MEAGER
   BUOYANCY WHICH SHOULD NEGATE UPDRAFT INTENSITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS NRN CA/SWRN OREGON SUGGEST SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
   AND LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS COULD ROTATE...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY
   PRODUCING A FEW WEAK TORNADOES. 

   ...NERN U.S...

   FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
   WILL SPREAD INTO UPSTATE NY AFTER 18Z.  WHILE MOISTURE IS QUITE
   SPARSE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND 50F+ SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN 600MI
   UPSTREAM OVER WI...SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
   FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITHIN
   COOLING MID-LEVEL PROFILE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY
   SUGGEST SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS LIKELY DESPITE THE EXPECTED COOL SFC
   TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...CLOUD HEIGHTS COULD EXCEED 6KM AND
   GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY.  GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
   THIS CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW/DEAN.. 10/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 25, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities