Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 1 05:02:33 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141001 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141001 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010502

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AND NRN KS...SRN AND
   ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL MO...FAR NERN OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
   INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY.
   OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS FROM
   EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
   OVERNIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES
   INTO THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SWRN KS INTO
   NWRN TX. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF ERN KS INTO
   MO EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RESULT IN ONGOING AREAS OF STORMS WHICH
   WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER ON.

   BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ALTHOUGH
   HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL BE NEUTRAL. STILL...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   AND THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S E OF A DRYLINE WILL
   RESULT IN AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
   MULTIPLE POTENTIAL AREAS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO MO THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.

   ...ERN KS INTO WRN MO...NERN OK...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IN A ZONE OF
   PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
   THIS EARLY ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN HEATING NEAR THE WRN FRINGE OF
   THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE RESULTS IN STRONG INSTABILITY.
   THE STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO EXIST IN THESE AREAS WITH
   20-25 KT 850 MB FLOW ATOP S/SELY SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
   RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH POTENTIALLY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300
   M2/S2. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY...AND A
   COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW-LEVEL
   BOUNDARY SITUATION DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY.

   FARTHER E ACROSS CNTRL MO...EARLY STORMS THAT FORM OVER ERN KS/WRN
   MO MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS FURTHER SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE STORM MODE
   IS LINEAR...EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION MAY EXIST.

   ...CNTRL/ERN NEB DURING THE DAY...
   A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL
   NEB DURING THE DAY. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES
   WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY.
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

   ...ERN CO LATE AFTERNOON INTO KS AND NEB OVERNIGHT...
   HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A SURGING COLD
   FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THE FRONT EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...WITH A
   SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   AS THE STRONG FORCING INTERACTS WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
   MOISTURE OVER NEB AND KS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH ONLY A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER IN PLACE. 

   ...WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...
   A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
   NEAR A RETREATING DRYLINE. HEATING WILL BE STRONG...AND A NARROW
   ZONE NEAR THE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME UNCAPPED. WHILE CONVERGENCE IS
   WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THEY FORM...THEY WILL
   LIKELY BE CELLULAR WITH A HAIL THREAT.

   ..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 10/01/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 01, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities