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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 24, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 24 05:08:46 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160724 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160724 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240508

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
   MIDWEST REGIONS...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

   WEAK LARGE-SCALE 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
   NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS 50KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS INTO NRN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION MAY GENERATE TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
   AS VEERED LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI.  CURRENT RADAR
   DATA...24/05Z...DEPICTS THIS PROCESS HAS BEGUN OVER MN AND
   SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO WI BY
   DAYBREAK.  IT/S NOT REAL CLEAR HOW SEVERE THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION
   WILL BE BUT HAIL/GUSTY WINDS COULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED WITH THE
   MODESTLY SHEARED UPDRAFTS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO LOWER
   MI BY MID DAY...POSSIBLY INHIBITING BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING.  OF
   POTENTIALLY MORE CONCERN...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WI AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT.  IF
   SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE
   BREACHED WITHIN VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

   STRONG SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS...POSSIBLY
   SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.  LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED EARLY-DAY STORMS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
   BUOYANCY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT
   SEVERE PROBS RATHER THAN INCREASE TO SLGT RISK.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...

   TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO POSITION ITSELF FROM NRN MO...WWD
   ACROSS KS INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
   WELL SOUTH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHERE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  EVEN SO...STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD AID TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
   CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.

   SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO CO WHERE VEERING PROFILES WITH
   HEIGHT MAY ENABLE UPDRAFTS TO WEAKLY ROTATE.  STRONG HEATING ACROSS
   THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FAVORABLE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD
   ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO MIGRATE SEWD INTO A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT AIR
   MASS WHERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 07/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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