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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 1 05:41:03 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140801 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140801 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010541

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
   INTO NEBRASKA AND FROM GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY WITH LARGE
   UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY DOMINATING THE ERN HALF OF
   THE U.S. AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN STATES.

   AT THE SFC A COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SERN
   VA. FARTHER WEST A FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY THROUGH SERN TX AND
   MAY STALL NEAR THE TX COAST. A LEE TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS A
   PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...S DAKOTA THROUGH NRN NEB...

   MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/ MLCAPE IS EXPECTED EAST OF LEE TROUGH WHERE
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING SFC
   LAYER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING ALONG AND
   JUST WEST OF LEE TROUGH AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND SPREAD
   SEWD...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
   NWLY FLOW REGIME. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
   OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. DEEP SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT COVERAGE
   OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5%
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

   DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE.
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING SEWD AROUND
   UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

   A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL
   ACCOMPANY THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING
   AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REMAINING AOB 500 J/KG OVER THE
   CAROLINAS AND 500-1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL/SRN GA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   NOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THIS
   REGION...POSSIBLY ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE DAY. ELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO SLY AND INCREASING TO 30-35 KT AT 500 MB
   WILL SUPPORT 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS NC INTO SRN VA WHERE
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL VEERING WILL EXIST. FARTHER SOUTH AN ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER CNTRL/SRN GA.
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THREAT
   DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..DIAL/GRAMS.. 08/01/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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