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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 28, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 05:09:55 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150328 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150328 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280509

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
   MOVING GRADUALLY EWD TODAY...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES
   THE E COAST.  IN ITS WAKE...A LOWER-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED
   OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  WITHIN THIS FLATTER FLOW FIELD...A
   VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND THEN TURN ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND
   HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AT THE SURFACE
   BY A COLD FRONT -- WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
   NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUN.  

   WHILE SCANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
   WILL LIKELY YIELD MEAGER CAPE DEVELOPMENT ATOP A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH ANY CONVECTION THEN SPREADING QUICKLY SEWD
   ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EVENING.  WHILE A LOCALLY STRONGER
   GUST MAY OCCUR IF A SUSTAINED CELL OR TWO WERE TO EVOLVE...EVEN A
   LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK AREA APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM.

   ..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 03/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: March 28, 2015
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