SPC AC 210528
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL ND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NRN FL AND SE
   GA...
   
   ...ND...
   
   UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL ADVANCE
   THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. A SERIES OF
   VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE
   IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE EWD. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
   FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH SERN MT AND NE WY. A
   DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM W CNTRL SD THROUGH WRN NEB AND WRN KS.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
   WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
   INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
   STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION...MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AS WELL AS A STRONG CAP.
   
   
   THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF
   THE DAY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM TO NEAR 90. MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
   ND/MANITOBA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
   WEAKER. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD OVER ND BY
   EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING FRONTAL FORCING AUGMENTED BY
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STRONGER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN POST
   FRONTAL. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR MAY INCREASE TO 35-40 KT ALONG
   INSTABILITY AXIS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
   ALONG THE FRONT WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
   
   
   ...NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA...
   
   TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WNWWD
   THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PLACE PARTS OF NRN FL AND SE GA IN
   THE MORE FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OR
   WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE INLAND. ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST AWAY FROM CENTER
   SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS
   TO INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF STREAM AND MOVE ONSHORE...WITH HODOGRAPHS
   SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL/GRAMS.. 08/21/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z