Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 1, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 1 05:32:07 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20161001 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161001 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010532

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MATURE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS REMAINED LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE OH
   VALLEY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD TOWARDS
   LOWER MI. VERTICALLY STACKED CHARACTER OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS
   GENERAL STAGNATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN A
   RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY RECYCLED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR-NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
   UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J
   PER KG/ AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 

   FARTHER W...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH
   MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE PACIFIC NW...REACHING THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE
   AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THIS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHING INTO CNTRL MT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL MT...
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...PROVIDED BY BOTH THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WILL COUPLE WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
   AFTERNOON TSTMS. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE DAYTIME HEATING
   FOSTERS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT...SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER/COHEN.. 10/01/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 01, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities