Jul 4, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 4 06:00:23 UTC 2015 (20150704 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150704 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150704 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 140,303 1,059,539 Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...North Platte, NE...Aberdeen, SD...
MARGINAL 560,516 26,430,048 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150704 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 16,741 94,136 Devils Lake, ND...Grafton, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150704 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 136,073 1,022,737 Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...North Platte, NE...
5 % 546,594 25,521,733 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150704 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 139,396 1,054,207 Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...North Platte, NE...Aberdeen, SD...
5 % 504,498 25,302,015 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
   SPC AC 040600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL NV...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH A
   FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GULF
   COAST AREA PROVIDING COOL AIR ALOFT FOR DAYTIME STORMS. TO THE
   W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH NWLY
   FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. TO THE N...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
   GLANCE THE NRN PLAINS FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
   DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   SCATTERED DAYTIME AND EVENING STORMS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN
   NEB.

   TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS NRN CA AND THE
   WRN GREAT BASIN...PROVIDING LIFT AND MOISTENING FOR CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS DURING THE DAY.

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   STRONG HEATING AND A NWD FLUX OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS NEAR THE SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY...IN A N-S ORIENTATION
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EARLY WAVE PRECEDING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA...THEN RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
   WITH HAIL AND WIND. A SEPARATE BATCH OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
   NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN MT...INTO WRN/NRN ND WITH A FEW
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO.

   FARTHER S DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS S
   CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB...WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS FAR S AS NWRN
   KS. GIVEN THE LONG HODOGRAPHS...A SIGNIFICANT HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.

   ...OK/TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   A WEAK/WASHED-OUT BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING
   TO THE S AS A RESULT OF HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN TO SLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS GIVEN NWLY
   FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONALLY...THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND OR HAIL GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE. PORTIONS OF OK AND NRN TX MAY BE UPGRADED A TARGETED SLIGHT
   IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   TO THE E...A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
   DAY ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL
   INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA...MS...AND AL.
   LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW
   AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SLIGHT RISK. 

   ...GREAT BASIN...
   DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
   WILL LEAD TO A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z OVER
   MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN NV. GIVEN THE SHEER NUMBER OF STORMS AS WELL
   AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   AND/OR SMALL HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SHEAR PROFILES AND
   THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR TO PARTICULARLY FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER.

   ..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 07/04/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z