May 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 27 05:41:21 UTC 2016 (20160527 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160527 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160527 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 111,497 10,806,995 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 363,696 28,571,935 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160527 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 216,455 21,114,359 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160527 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 110,681 10,799,826 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
5 % 363,908 28,510,467 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160527 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 110,681 10,799,826 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
5 % 363,888 28,505,307 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
   SPC AC 270541

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
   SWD ACROSS WRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN OK VICINITY SWD
   INTO PARTS OF E TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREAS...EXTENDING FROM THE MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST SWD TO THE TX
   COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
   WINDS OR A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS
   INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
   HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
   CENTRAL KANSAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. FRIDAY...AS A
   LOW/TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY
   NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   MEANWHILE...BROAD LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE
   WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS STATES FEATURE...AS WEAK
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGS SWD ACROSS THE CA VICINITY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW OVER WRN KS SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY
   NEWD WITH TIME...WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EWD ACROSS WRN OK/CENTRAL TX
   DURING THE DAY.  ELSEWHERE...BROAD/WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
   OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE ERN U.S.
   AND PAC NW.

   ...CENTRAL KS/WRN OK...
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- IN THE FORM OF AN MCS -- IS MOVING ACROSS
   KS ATTM...BUT SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE
   OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WHILE MODEST FLOW ALOFT
   IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
   TROUGH...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK
   SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF THE
   SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE.  LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS DURING
   THE EVENING.

   ...SERN OK SWD INTO ERN TX...
   SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS TX ATTM...FROM
   THE TRANSPECOS REGION EWD ACROSS ALL BUT S TX.  THE EWD-MOVING STORM
   CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ERN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD.  WHILE SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   AREA...MODELS HINT THAT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED
   WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREADING EWD
   ACROSS TX MAY SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON UPTICK IN CONVECTION FROM SERN OK
   SWD INTO SERN TX.  WITH SHEAR LIKELY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...QUESTIONABLE THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE OVERCOME TO SOME
   DEGREE BY THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS...YIELDING SOME RISK FOR HAIL
   AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  STORMS SHOULD
   DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AREA...
   WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING MUCH OF THIS
   REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...COMBINATION OF AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK QG
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH POCKETS OF MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT RISK FOR A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z