Jul 23, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 23 05:30:01 UTC 2016 (20160723 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160723 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160723 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 40,234 4,409,676 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
SLIGHT 144,738 4,597,892 Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...
MARGINAL 255,872 28,006,818 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Boston, MA...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160723 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 136,798 8,308,158 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160723 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 40,302 4,432,079 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
15 % 144,697 4,573,405 Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...
5 % 257,365 28,032,036 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Boston, MA...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160723 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 118,140 7,284,932 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
5 % 160,237 6,295,580 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Rockford, IL...
   SPC AC 230530

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE ERN
   DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL AND SRN MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS. OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DOWNBURST
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
   NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH A
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM/MCV WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NERN NEB AND SERN
   SD. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL
   AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NERN STATES.

   AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
   THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE A WARM
   FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO MN AND WI. A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   OFF THE NERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY TODAY.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST AREA...

   SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING BY 12Z THIS
   MORNING. ONE AREA IS EXPECTED ACROSS ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY LLJ. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
   BE ONGOING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IA WITHIN ZONE OF
   ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN NEB IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED MCV. THESE STORMS WILL RESIDE ON THE
   NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF A RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHOULD
   SHIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRE-FRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR TO ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN
   AND SWRN MN WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. MORNING STORMS
   FROM SRN MN INTO IA MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
   HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FARTHER WEST
   OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHERE STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
   DEEPER ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINEAR
   MODES WITH DAMAGING WIND BECOMING PRIMARY THREAT. A COUPLE OF
   SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS STORMS
   SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE TORNADO
   THREAT.

   ...NERN STATES...

   UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN POST-FRONTAL
   REGIME...AND DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WITH
   THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZES. A CORRIDOR OF 35-45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE WILL REMAIN WEAK.
   SMALL INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW
   DOWNBURST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL POST-FRONTAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY LIMIT A MORE ROBUST THREAT.
   WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MARGINAL RISK THIS OUTLOOK...BUT CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

   ..DIAL/LEITMAN.. 07/23/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z