Aug 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 26 04:48:31 UTC 2016 (20160826 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160826 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160826 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 38,984 1,485,420 Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Emporia, KS...
MARGINAL 191,358 9,478,101 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160826 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 41,625 1,589,024 Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160826 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 37,502 1,426,919 Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Emporia, KS...Dodge City, KS...
5 % 192,282 9,367,910 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160826 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 38,291 1,417,651 Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Emporia, KS...
5 % 190,983 9,431,010 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...
   SPC AC 260448

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. 
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

   WEAK LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH A DOMINANT UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS KS INTO NRN MO.  THIS ENHANCED
   BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AID ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF
   CONVECTION AS IT MATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   LATE THURSDAY EVENING...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WAS
   OBSERVED FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NEWD INTO SERN KS.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL REINFORCE A SFC FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED IN A
   SW-NE ORIENTED FASHION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
   NWD...POSSIBLY DELAYED EARLY IN THE DAY DUE TO ONGOING TSTMS.  BY
   LATE AFTERNOON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD RETURN INTO SRN KS WHERE
   SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE
   WIND SHIFT.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD REMOVE
   ANY INHIBITION.  WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
   ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO SWRN KS.  WHILE SOME WEAK
   CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS SHOULD EVOLVE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SLGT RISK
   REGION.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. 
   FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS AND WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR
   GIVEN THE FAVORABLY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES.

   ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   WITH EWD-PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH AND MODEST SHEAR WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS THIS REGION PRIOR TO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE THAT GREAT...SFC DEW POINTS
   COULD RISE TO NEAR 50F INVOF OF THE BLACK HILLS AS TEMPERATURES RISE
   TO NEAR 70F.  A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   ..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 08/26/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z