Apr 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 16 05:34:37 UTC 2014 (20140416 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140416 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140416 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140416 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140416 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140416 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160531

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES TODAY.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY
   AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EMBEDDED
   IN A LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
   CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE NERN STATES TODAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NWRN
   STATES TODAY. SOME CONVECTION COULD OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
   NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
   REACH 10 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/16/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z