Sep 14, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 14 05:55:11 UTC 2014 (20140914 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140914 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140914 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140914 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140914 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140914 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 53,367 2,110,631 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...St. Joseph, MO...Bellevue, NE...
   SPC AC 140555

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
   CAROLINA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY.
   OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
   REINFORCED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD FROM THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE REGION.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A
   LEE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CO AND
   MOVE INTO WRN KS BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS PRIMARILY AFTER NIGHTFALL.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS
   THE CONUS...A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL FOCUS DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
   ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
   INTO THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SW.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS
   WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION WITH MID-UPPER 50S
   DEWPOINTS FORECAST BY EVENING NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER.  DIFFERENTIAL
   THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE H7-H5 LAYER WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID
   MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY.  DESPITE THE DECOUPLING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE EVENING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
   PRESENCE OF A GRADUALLY MOISTENING TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE AND THE
   ONSET OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /WAA/.  THIS IN TURN WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD ELEVATED STORMS AFTER DARK
   ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING CNTRL PLAINS LLJ.  UPWARDS OF
   1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMIDST STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /45-60 KT/ WOULD
   CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD
   LARGE HAIL.  AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL
   PROBABLY INCREASE TOWARDS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH SOME
   HAIL RISK.

   ..SMITH/DEAN.. 09/14/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z