May 29, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 29 04:57:12 UTC 2015 (20150529 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150529 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150529 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 85,965 1,741,255 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
MARGINAL 614,263 51,596,928 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150529 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 53,931 1,263,282 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150529 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 86,146 1,741,591 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
5 % 616,023 51,608,546 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150529 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 86,584 1,741,459 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
5 % 284,470 17,651,309 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 290457

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF ERN NM
   THROUGH WRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
   INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   THE MAIN THREATS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM INITIALLY OVER OK AND NRN TX
   EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
   WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WY AS IT INTERACTS
   WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA/ND AND SHEARS EWD WHILE MOVING
   THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM
   MN SWWD THROUGH ERN CO WILL ADVANCE SEWD DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY
   EXTEND FROM NRN WI SWWD INTO NERN NM BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
   DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS SWRN TX AND EXTEND NWD INTO ERN NM WHERE
   IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. 

   ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA...

   LARGE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH TX WILL HAVE OVERTURNED THE
   TX WARM SECTOR WITH RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN 50S OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS TO LOW 60S ACROSS CNTRL TX IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. NEAR SFC
   WINDS WILL RETURN TO SLY EAST OF LEE LOW SITUATED OVER WRN TX AND
   SERN NM...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY UNDERGO RECOVERY OVER
   THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED ALONG ERN EDGE OF
   EML PLUME RESULTING IN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM WITHIN
   DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH IN
   VICINITY OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. STORMS WILL BE
   INITIALLY HIGH BASED AND UNDERGO INTENSIFICATION AS THEY DEVELOP
   SEWD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT WILL
   SUPPORT MULTICELL AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT STORMS MAY
   EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY A
   STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. 

   ...GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...

   AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1500 J/KG WITHIN A WEAKLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.

   ...ERN OK THROUGH NCNTRL AND NERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   STORMS MAY REDEVELOP FROM ERN OK THROUGH NCNTRL AND NERN TX IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE MCV. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..DIAL/COOK.. 05/29/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z