Jun 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 24 05:59:20 UTC 2017 (20170624 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170624 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170624 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 137,170 25,523,152 Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Raleigh, NC...Providence, RI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170624 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 10,669 11,999,230 Providence, RI...Bridgeport, CT...New Haven, CT...Stamford, CT...New Bedford, MA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170624 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 137,613 24,641,030 Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Raleigh, NC...Providence, RI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170624 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 56,898 2,225,883 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
   SPC AC 240559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY OVER
   PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible
   over portions of the Southeast on Saturday, with isolated severe
   hail and strong winds over parts of New Mexico.  Isolated damaging
   winds and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across southern
   New England Saturday morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   Within a broad cyclonic mid-level flow regime from the
   central/northern Plains east to the northeast U.S., a notable
   embedded impulse will move southeast across the upper Midwest and
   Great Lakes on Saturday.  In response, slight amplification of the
   upper-level trough will occur and an increase in mid-level flow will
   occur across the Carolinas/portions of the mid-Atlantic region. 
   Farther west, an upper-level anticyclone will strengthen in the
   vicinity of the Arizona/Mexico border.  A surface cold front will
   extend near the New England coast southwest across the Carolinas,
   and west through the lower Mississippi Valley/central Texas and then
   curving north across the high terrain of New Mexico Saturday
   afternoon.  A very moist (upper 60s/lower 70s surface dew points)
   air mass will remain in place south of the frontal boundary.

   ...Carolinas...
   Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass along and south of the
   front will result in pockets of moderate MLCAPE by afternoon, and
   moderate southwesterly flow aloft will result in 30-40 kts of
   effective shear.  Despite generally weak low-level flow, updraft
   water loading in the presence of PW values in excess of 2 inches
   should result in isolated strong/damaging gusts with the strongest
   storms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

   ...New Mexico...
   Southeasterly low-level flow will continue to transport increasing
   moisture into the high terrain Saturday, and areas of moderate
   surface-based instability will develop during the afternoon. 
   Thunderstorms developing near the Continental Divide in the presence
   of 20-35 kts of northwest mid-level flow may become sufficiently
   organized with mid-level rotation to pose a risk for isolated large
   hail.  In addition, the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer will
   promote a risk for damaging winds. 

   ...Coastal southern New England early...
   Forecast soundings depict strong low-level wind fields and
   unidirectional flow in advance of the front during the morning
   hours, in part due to a notable southerly low-level jet from near
   the mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England.  Although
   instability will be meager, some high-res guidance continues to
   suggest a potential for short line segments near the immediate
   coast, and will introduce a focused area with low severe
   probabilities for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. 

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley into central Texas...
   Although mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will be generally weak
   across this area, at least some potential for strong/severe storms
   may exist during the afternoon as storms diurnally intensify in the
   vicinity of the front or perhaps along remnant outflow from prior
   convection.  With moderate instability expected to develop, severe
   probabilities may be introduced in later outlooks where confidence
   in greater storm coverage increases.

   ..Bunting/Mosier.. 06/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z