Oct 24, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 24 05:08:42 UTC 2014 (20141024 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141024 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141024 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141024 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141024 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141024 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240508

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
   INCLUDING THE KEYS.

   ...SOUTH FL...

   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   FRIDAY AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   INDUCE A SFC WAVE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE FL STRAITS. 
   ALTHOUGH NELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE
   PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING DEEP
   CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PENETRATING LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING. 
   WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE SRN COAST EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...PRIMARY THREAT FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

   ..DARROW/DIAL.. 10/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z