Feb 1, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 1 05:58:56 UTC 2015 (20150201 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150201 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150201 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 119,095 13,766,853 Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150201 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150201 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 119,164 13,766,536 Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150201 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010558

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX EWD TO
   PARTS OF WRN AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS
   OF TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
   COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S.
   SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AS
   IT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH
   TIME.  AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
   OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
   THE PERIOD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- PROGGED TO BE SWEEPING ACROSS
   THE TN/LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING WILL FOCUS AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   ...PARTS OF E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN AL...
   A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
   50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST/ WILL CONTINUE
   STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS
   THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTING
   SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG
   THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
   BROKEN/LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- THE
   STRONGEST OF WHICH EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF
   SERN TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS/WRN AL.  THOUGH MODEST AMOUNT
   OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...ROUGHLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 50 KTS
   AT MID LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED
   CELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE.  GIVEN RELATIVELY FAST STORM
   MOTION...A FEW STRONGER/DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
   WARRANTING INCLUSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY/MARGINAL CATEGORICAL
   RISK AREA THIS FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

   ..GOSS.. 02/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z