Jun 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 26 05:56:31 UTC 2016 (20160626 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160626 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160626 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 317,237 34,823,144 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160626 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160626 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 315,564 34,818,578 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160626 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 313,152 34,424,681 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 260556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI THROUGH
   THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY TO KS/NORTHERN OK AND PART OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
   MIDWEST...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. 
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA PER
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
   ONTARIO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WEAK LARGE-SCALE 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS
   WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE MIGRATORY CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  AN ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH LOWER MI THIS
   AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MO...IL...INDIANA AND OH.  THE
   TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY...
   BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS KS.

   ...LOWER MI THROUGH MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   MODEST WESTERLY 500-MB FLOW WILL EXTEND INTO LOWER MI...WHERE
   FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST MULTICELL
   UPDRAFTS...WITHIN AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON.  THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS...WITH WEAK FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   MEANWHILE...SOUTH OF I-80...DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   WEAK...LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE SEVERE THREAT. 
   HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
   FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST TO MO.  FARTHER WEST INTO KS/OK TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED.  GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
   MARGINAL RISK...AS WELL.

   ...SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD...
   A DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH WEST/NORTHWEST 500-MB WINDS ATOP
   SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   40-50 KT...SUGGESTING ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
   COVERAGE...WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE FLOW
   REGIMES OF NORTHEAST CO AND SOUTHEAST WY BETWEEN 20-23Z PER HIGH-RES
   MODELS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
   WEAK SUPERCELLS THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
   WESTERN NEB...FAR SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST CO THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..PETERS/BUNTING.. 06/26/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z