Mar 5, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 5 04:59:39 UTC 2015 (20150305 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150305 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150305 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150305 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150305 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150305 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050459

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
   WILL LIFT NEWD AND BE ADVANCING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI
   MORNING. A SHARP COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO COASTAL NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
   THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD...AND LIE W/E ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL
   PENINSULA EARLY FRI MORNING.

   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WITHIN AN ANAFRONTAL-FLOW REGIME OWING TO THE GRAZING
   INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED ASCENT.
   HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF DEEPER POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WILL BE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EROSION OF THE CAPE-SUPPORTING WARM LAYER ALOFT
   AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN MUCAPE/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY
   MID/LATE MORNING.

   MEANWHILE...DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   LAYER FROM PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE TO SC MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
   AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE DESTABILIZING SFC LAYER...OFFERING
   SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
   TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 03/05/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z