May 24, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 24 06:01:38 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130524 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130524 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130524 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130524 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 37,590 160,100 Sterling, CO...Colby, KS...Burlington, CO...Imperial, NE...Oshkosh, NE...
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 37,590 160,100 Sterling, CO...Colby, KS...Burlington, CO...Imperial, NE...Oshkosh, NE...
   SPC AC 240558

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND
   NWRN KS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCKING
   REGIME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS
   OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES. GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS REGIME
   WILL OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S.
   UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY EXITS THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING
   PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY
   FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
   PLAINS.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
   WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG A 50 KT SLY LLJ. THE
   ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVERLAP THE WRN EDGE OF THE
   MOIST AXIS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN
   KS AND WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION
   WILL RESIDE JUST SE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS
   BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
   INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   MULTICELLS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.

   ...SRN THROUGH SERN TX...

   SWD PROPAGATING MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING 12Z FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME
   INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS
   THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WING GUSTS AND HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 05/24/2013

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z