Oct 17, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 17 04:48:32 UTC 2017 (20171017 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171017 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171017 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171017 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171017 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171017 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170448

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected over the Florida Peninsula today.

   ...Synopsis...
   A pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs -- one currently entering
   the central High Plains and the other traversing the northern
   Rockies -- will move southeastward within the northwesterly flow
   aloft extending from the northern High Plains into the Southeast.
   High surface pressure will dominant the eastern CONUS while lee
   troughing deepens across the High Plains. Despite this relatively
   progressive pattern, a dry and stable continental airmass will
   continue to preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the
   central and eastern US. The only exception is across FL where
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and south of
   a slowly southeastward progressing cold front.

   A few lightning strikes are possible within elevated convection off
   the southern CA coast. Vorticity maximum responsible for this
   convection will likely move onshore around 00Z Wednesday. A
   lightning strike or two is possible over San Luis Obispo and/or
   Santa Barbara counties but overall coverage is expected to remain
   too isolated to introduce a general thunderstorm area.

   ..Mosier/Elliott.. 10/17/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z