Oct 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 31 04:41:52 UTC 2014 (20141031 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141031 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141031 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141031 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141031 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141031 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310441

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY ACROSS DEEP
   S TX AMIDST A LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL BE
   OVERTAKEN BY DRY TRAJECTORIES/NLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SPRAWLING SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SERN
   STATES...WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT OVERSPREADING RELATIVELY WARMER WATER
   TEMPS OVER LAKE MI AS THE OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH INCREASES. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPENING OF A
   LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH RELATED CAPE
   EXTENDING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT FOR A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-LAKE SWD TO NWRN INDIANA. ALSO...A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH THE
   AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC FLOW AMIDST SCANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.

   OVER THE WRN STATES...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
   OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL
   COOLING WILL SUPPORT MEAGER BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER CA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   FOUR-CORNERS REGION SWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS MODEST
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AFFECT THIS REGION AMIDST ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE.

   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
   LIMITS.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 10/31/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z