Nov 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 26 05:57:10 UTC 2014 (20141126 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141126 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141126 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141126 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141126 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141126 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 260557

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
   AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD A
   SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED REGIME THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PHASING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST
   COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY
   TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTH FL AND
   THE COASTAL NC VICINITY.

   ...COASTAL NC...
   IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL LARGELY REMAIN
   OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF THE
   COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FRONT/WARM SECTOR TO
   AT LEAST GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED
   FRONTAL/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC SCENARIO SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NONETHELESS
   BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

   ...SOUTH FL...
   BANDS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
   AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   GENERALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES OFFSHORE.
   SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY TODAY /12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND/ WILL LIKELY
   BE MITIGATED BY THE FRONTAL TIMING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A
   MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION.

   ..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/26/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z