Jul 29, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 29 05:30:58 UTC 2014 (20140729 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140729 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140729 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140729 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140729 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 67,991 2,805,340 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...Westminster, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140729 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 106,457 5,881,670 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Madison, WI...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
   SPC AC 290530

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TODAY WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES.  A WEAK MID LEVEL
   PERTURBATION OVER WY WILL ENACT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OVER
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY AND THE WESTERN
   EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
   INTERSECT A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CO HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG EARLY
   DAY HEATING INVOF THE FRONT RANGE AND SERN WY AND A WEAK CAP WILL
   LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH 500-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE.  DESPITE MODEST SPEED SHEAR...A DEEPLY VEERING PROFILE
   WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED BUT VIGOROUS STORMS IN WY/CO. 
   WEAKER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH IN NM MAY RESULT IN A
   FEW STRONGER PULSATING STORMS PERHAPS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED
   HAIL/WIND RISK.  THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
   SERVE TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION
   STRENGTHENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN CO
   INTO KS/OK. 

   ...WI...
   DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO
   THE MIDDLE 70S.  COOL TEMPS ALOFT /AOB -16 DEG C AT H5/ COMBINED
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
   NEAR 500 J/KG. SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM DURING
   THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A BELT OF 30-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL
   SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

   ..SMITH/DEAN.. 07/29/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z