Sep 28, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 05:35:58 UTC 2016 (20160928 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160928 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160928 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 61,938 13,461,887 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160928 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160928 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 41,897 8,670,773 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160928 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 61,938 13,461,887 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Greensboro, NC...
   SPC AC 280535

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
   AND VIRGINIA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY AS
   SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE ERN GULF COAST
   STATES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. TO THE EAST OF THE
   FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WILL LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS AND SRN VA BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
   INITIATE ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
   RALEIGH NC AT 21Z/WED SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT...0-3 KM
   LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM AND 20 TO 30 KT OF FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
   STRONGER MULTICELLS. A HAIL THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH CELLS
   THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY AS A COLD
   FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS OH...KY AND WRN TN. AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A POCKET OF INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP IN SE INDIANA...SW OH AND NRN KY DURING AFTERNOON.
   CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS POCKET OF
   INSTABILITY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FOR THAT
   REASON...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING.

   ..BROYLES/COOK.. 09/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z