Dec 3, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 3 05:42:40 UTC 2016 (20161203 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161203 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161203 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 48,448 8,324,474 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161203 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 48,488 8,316,608 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161203 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 48,498 8,321,026 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161203 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 48,389 8,322,323 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
   SPC AC 030542

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
   COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   AND TONIGHT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
   TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

   ...TX COASTAL PLAINS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
   WESTERN MEXICO TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
   THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...SOUTHWEST FLOW
   WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 40 TO 55 KNOT
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN
   PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS
   THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
   ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
   TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FAHRENHEIT TODAY AND A
   POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
   SURFACE HEATING. 

   IN ADDITION...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHICH SHOULD
   ENABLE SOME STORM ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THINKING
   IS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
   NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST.
   IN SPITE OF A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AT 21Z/SATURDAY SHOW MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
   AND POOR LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL
   ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
   ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 12/03/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z