Dec 15, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 15 05:34:11 UTC 2017 (20171215 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171215 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171215 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171215 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171215 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171215 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150534

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm threat is less than 10%.

   ...Discussion...

   Southern stream has shifted to fairly low latitudes with a
   substantial upper trough expected to settle into northern Mexico.
   This feature will begin to eject toward south TX late in the day1
   period but insufficient moisture/instability will prevent
   thunderstorm development across the south-central US.

   Elsewhere, cool, stable conditions are not conducive for deep
   convection.

   ..Darrow/Leitman.. 12/15/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z