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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 17, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 17 12:45:39 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140417 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140417 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 171241

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
   FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MULTIPLE FLOW STREAMS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE STRONGER
   NRN STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A MORE FRACTURED
   SRN STREAM FROM SRN CA TO THE GULF COAST.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NW GREAT
   BASIN...ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AND IN ADVANCE
   OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC NW.  WITHIN THE
   SRN STREAM...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM NE MEXICO
   AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF
   MEXICO THIS MORNING...IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTENSIVE
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY.  THE
   NWRN AND NRN FRINGES OF THIS DEVELOPING CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO
   BRUSH THE GULF COAST FROM TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE.

   ...S FL TODAY...
   A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY AND BECOME
   DIFFUSE.  A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY /70-72 F
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/ AND DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS S FL WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/. 
   LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP FOCUS THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. 
   HOWEVER...STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION COULD BE AIDED BY
   RELATIVELY STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW/VENTING ALOFT...WHILE SEASONABLY
   COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -12 C AT 500 MB SUGGEST SOME
   RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

   ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: April 17, 2014
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