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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 20, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 20 12:28:12 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141020 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141020 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 201228

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

   VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE TODAY AND
   TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ONE
   PERIOD...FEATURING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
   COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO
   GREAT PLAINS...AND A LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
   THE NATION. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME...A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS SEWD
   THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS...SUPPORTING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. FARTHER SW...A
   SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
   TRACKING ACROSS NRN MEXICO.

   AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE
   MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. THE
   WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL FROM THE OZARK
   PLATEAU TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE MOVING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN
   RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS...

   A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR WITHIN A
   WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ. ANY ONGOING STORMS
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WEAKENS WITH THE CESSATION OF THE LLJ. BY AFTERNOON...HEATING
   ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PROXIMITY
   TO THE NRN MEXICO DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
   EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
   DIMINISHING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
   INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE
   WEATHER.

   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

   A SHORT BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN LAKE MI WITHIN A ZONE OF DCVA AND STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED THIS MORNING
   PRIOR TO INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
   ERIE INTO OH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. NO SEVERE
   WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

   ...PACIFIC NW COAST...

   CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE LAND-FALLING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
   FEW WEAK TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

   ..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: October 20, 2014
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