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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 31, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 31 13:00:14 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141031 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141031 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 311300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
   HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
   WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. THE GRT LKS-OH VLY TROUGH
   WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THIS PERIOD AS STRONG VORT MAX NOW OVER WI
   ACCELERATES SSE INTO N GA...WHILE LEAD IMPULSES NOW IN AR...NRN
   AL...AND ERN NC ARE ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING...LARGER-SCALE
   CYCLONIC FLOW.

   DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS AT LWR LVLS AS
   SPRAWLING...POLAR ANTICYCLONE BUILDS S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
   ERN U.S.  ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR SURGE...S TX
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE LWR RIO
   GRANDE LATER THIS MORNING...ENDING THUNDER THREAT IN DEEP S TX.
   OTHERWISE...STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRENGTHENING...DEEPLY PARALLEL OVER-WATER TRAJECTORIES MAY SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF CONVECTION TO SUPPORT SCTD THUNDER OVER
   PARTS OF NE IL...NRN IND...AND SW MI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND SNOW. ISOLD TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE TODAY
   THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHERE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WILL APPRECIABLY INCREASE IN DEVELOPING
   DEFORMATION ZONE OF DEEPENING TROUGH. SCANT MOISTURE
   SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT BUOYANCY/STORM COVERAGE.  

   FARTHER W...E PACIFIC TROUGH ALSO SHOULD AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW
   DROPPING S ALONG 135W EVOLVES INTO A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL
   MOVE ACROSS SRN CA EARLY SAT.  

   MID-LVL COOLING AND ASCENT WITH THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
   WEAK BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVER CA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
   THE PERIOD. E OF THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT FROM THE
   FOUR-CORNERS REGION SWD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   AUGMENTED BY A BELT OF MID/UPR-LVL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING REGION IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SHEARING NNE AHEAD OF MAIN UPR
   TROUGH.

   ..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 10/31/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: October 31, 2014
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