Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 27, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 27 12:40:22 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150327 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150327 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271240

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL TODAY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ACCELERATE EWD TO N
   FL BY THIS EVENING...AS A SEPARATE WAVE DIGS SEWD FROM MO/AR TO
   AL/GA...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.  AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO N FL THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE SE FL COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER WA/ORE BY TONIGHT.

   ...CENTRAL/S FL TODAY...
   THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE MOVED SEWD TO NEAR LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE...WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS 5-8 F LOWER ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL...TO THE N OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND.  SOME
   RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TODAY SINCE SURFACE WINDS
   ARE FROM THE S ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
   BREAKS TO ALLOW SURFACE HEATING.  ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE E/NE GULF TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
   FL W COAST BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
   CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD OVER THE
   CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES
   WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500
   J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 27, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities