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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 19, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 19 12:51:20 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170119 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170119 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191251

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
   LA/MS/AL/FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be
   possible into tonight across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi,
   Alabama, and Florida.

   ...LA/MS/AL/FL...
   A broad swath of convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the
   northwest Gulf. The strongest storms have been confined to parts of
   east-central LA to southwest MS, along the leading edge of the
   convective band where the inflow air mass is characterized by 65-70
   degree F surface dew points. The northern extent of this rich
   moisture should reach as far east as west-central AL into the FL
   Panhandle. However, weak mid/upper-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z
   soundings suggest that MLCAPE should remain meager, predominately
   around 500 J/kg or less. Nevertheless, some intensification of this
   morning's convection may occur through the afternoon/evening as
   low-level southwesterlies strengthen to around 35-45 kt at 850 mb.
   This should result in moderately enlarged low-level hodographs and
   support transient rotating updrafts given the weak instability.
   Overall scenario appears most likely to yield a brief tornado or two
   and isolated damaging winds. This risk should persist into the
   evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast, before gradually
   diminishing overnight. 

   For additional short-term discussion, please see MCD 0074.

   ..Grams.. 01/19/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: January 19, 2017
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