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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 28, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 28 12:47:29 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160728 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160728 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281247

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE CO...WRN KS...FAR SW
   NEB...FAR NW OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO S-CNTRL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO S-CNTRL
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN APPALACHIANS TO LOWER
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS AND PARTS OF KANSAS TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND A
   COUPLE TORNADIC STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
   EVENING...WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE PRODUCING SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS TONIGHT.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
   DECAYING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTERS OVER THE NEB
   PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN WY. PRESENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THEIR
   SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE LENDS TO
   LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. 00Z WRF/NMM-B
   BASED CAMS...WHICH DID NOT HANDLE THE LONGEVITY OF THE KS CONVECTION
   THAT WELL...SUGGEST THAT THE NEB PANHANDLE/NORTHERN WY CLUSTERS 
   EVOLVE INTO THE PRIMARY SHOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEPICTING
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE 09Z HRRR-ESRL
   FAVORS A VASTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH INITIALLY ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE LATE AFTERNOON...GROWING
   INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS TOWARDS THE
   TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK. 

   DIABATIC HEATING AMID VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /9.5 DEG C/KM
   FROM 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN 12Z DNR RAOB/ IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEST OF ONGOING CLOUD DEBRIS. WITH
   SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S BEING MAINTAINED
   WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CONVECTION...MODERATE BUOYANCY
   SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
   HEIGHT...THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
   IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. WITH CONFINED INTENSIFICATION OF A
   SOUTHERLY LLJ OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IT SEEMS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS MAY OCCUR. 

   FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE 12Z DDC RAOB SAMPLED THE DELETERIOUS
   EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...A PLUME OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS REMAINS PRESENT ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. STORMS WITHIN A
   FAVORED CORRIDOR OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS MAY INTENSIFY AS
   THEY IMPINGE ON THIS PLUME. THIS COULD BE TIMED FAVORABLY FOR PEAK
   HEATING AND SUPPORT A SEVERE WIND RISK TO EASTERN KS THROUGH
   EVENING.

   ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   A BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
   MID-SOUTH. WHILE CLOUD DEBRIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL SLOW DESTABILIZATION...AREAS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS INTO VA SHOULD HAVE PRONOUNCED DIABATIC HEATING AMID
   RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
   BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. SCATTERED
   TO WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A BELT
   OF 25-40 KT MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
   ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD. 

   ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   ROBUST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINTAINED SOUTH OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. WIDELY SCATTERED
   STORMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
   FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN WEAK...THE
   STRENGTH OF SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS
   PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ...SOUTHERN AZ...
   15-30 KT 500-MB EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
   LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE LARGELY SUGGESTS STORM
   COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COMPARED TO
   WED...THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW COULD FOSTER A COUPLE STORMS
   PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 07/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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