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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 29, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 29 12:31:30 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140729 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140729 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291231

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN
   THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
   HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM COLORADO AND NEW
   MEXICO EASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN
   UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A
   RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ERN TROUGH...A
   SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD
   INTO N FL AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FRONTAL ZONE
   EXTENDS WNWWD ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL TX TO SE NM.  FARTHER N...A
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN NM INTO ERN CO...ON
   THE E SIDE OF A BROADER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN AND SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
   FL PENINSULA TODAY...ALONG THE FRONT IN TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
   CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LARGELY DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES.  A SEPARATE AREA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS WI WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE SYSTEM.

   THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
   E CENTRAL NM SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING...WHILE NEW STORMS FORM
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE
   WEATHER RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS CO BY
   RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE MAY BE SOME
   ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
   CENTRAL NM AND VICINITY...BUT RATHER MODEST BUOYANCY AND
   INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL
   WIND OR HAIL RISKS.  OVERNIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OVER SW KS/THE TX PANHANDLE AND S
   PLAINS...AND WRN OK AS WAA INCREASES WITH A 35 KT LLJ.

   HAIL MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
   ACROSS WI...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND EMBEDDED SPEED
   MAXIMA ROTATING SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

   ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: July 29, 2014
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