Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Dec 18, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 18 12:58:12 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141218 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141218 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 181258

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

   VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

   ...TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER THE MID
   MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY APPROACHES THE BIG BEND/CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT.  ASCENT AND
   LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE OVER TX BY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND AND ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS ALL
   BUT DEEP S TX.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST. 
   OVERNIGHT...BUOYANCY ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN THE WAA REGIME...AS
   COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   APPROACH FROM THE W.  THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG /MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
   -15C...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM...AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND
   AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT.

   ...PAC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE
   TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
   CONVECTIVE CELLS W OF THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES. 
   THUS...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA AND
   NW ORE COASTS...MAINLY WITH AND AFTER FROPA FROM 06-12Z.

   ..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 12/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: December 18, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities