Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 28, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 28 12:52:34 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150228 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150228 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281252

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

   VALID 281300Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
   FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND
   OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WRN
   CONUS...WITH GEN WSWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN ROCKIES TO ATLC
   COAST.  MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER NERN AB/NWRN SK.  THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD STRENGTHEN
   AND MOVE SEWD OVER PORTIONS ERN MT AND DAKOTAS BY END OF PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE...TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ORE AND NRN CA WILL SHIFT
   SWD...FASTER ON ITS W SIDE...RESULTING IN CLOSED OR NEARLY CLOSED
   VORTEX ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS NV...CENTRAL CA AND ADJACENT PAC WATERS
   BY 12Z.  BY THEN...EMBEDDED 500-MB LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER CA COAST
   BETWEEN SBA-MRY.  

   AT SFC...COLD/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND PRIOR FROPAS WILL
   RENDER AIR MASS OVER MOST OF CONUS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR
   THUNDER...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF S FL NEAR RETREATING FRONTAL
   SEGMENT.  

   ...CA COAST TO 4 CORNERS...
   BROAD AREA OF MIDLEVEL COOLING SHIFTING SWD DOWN CA COAST...RELATED
   TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES OVER
   MRGLLY BUOYANT THETAE OF MARINE AIR.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
   AREAS OF CONVECTION SUCH AS THOSE NOTED ATTM ON IR IMAGERY OFFSHORE
   CA COAST BETWEEN CAPE MENDOCINO AND PT. REYES.  SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE LTG.  OTHER CONVECTION
   SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY FROM CENTRAL CA ESEWD OVER 4 CORNERS.  THOUGH
   PEAK AFTN MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 200 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...BASED
   ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS...ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR
   LTG-PRODUCING STORM ELECTRIFICATION ARE REACHED BY THOSE PROGGED
   CAPE PROFILES.  LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL THETAE AND LACK OF
   BETTER-FOCUSED LIFT SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
   TEMPORARILY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. 

   ...S FL...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. 
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER INCREASE IN
   BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE FROM BOTH MOIST ADVECTION AND DIABATIC/AFTN
   HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD RELATIVELY WEAKLY INHIBITED
   BUOYANCY EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE...SUCH AS ALREADY
   OBSERVED IN 12Z EYW/MFL SOUNDINGS.  MAIN LIMING FACTOR WILL BE LACK
   OF WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL LIFT...THOUGH MESOBETA-SCALE
   DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD FORM OVER THIS AREA.

   ..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 02/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 28, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities