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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 30, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 30 13:00:44 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160430 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160430 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS
   SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
   ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OZARKS AND
   THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER TROUGHING -- INCLUDING TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES -- WILL
   RESIDE OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING
   PREVAILS OVER THE ERN STATES.  THE FIRST LOW -- CENTERED OVER NWRN
   KS ATTM -- IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN KS TOWARD SERN
   NEB...WHILE THE SECOND -- CROSSING THE SRN NV/CA BORDER AREA --
   MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO AZ.  

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NOW RESIDING OVER NERN KS IS FORECAST TO
   WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...AS IT CROSSES MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AND THEN MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG A W-E WARM FRONT. 
   A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD ACROSS ERN OK
   INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TX WILL MOVE EWD INTO MO/AR THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS THE
   PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENS.  

   ...LOWER MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   REGION...
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED/ONGOING
   SEVERE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA.  

   THE AIRMASS E OF THIS ACTIVE/ONGOING WRN GULF COAST CONVECTION
   SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH LIMITED HEATING...RESULTING IN
   CONTINUATION -- AND SOME EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION -- OF
   SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD
   ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   MEANWHILE...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR IN THE WAKE OF
   ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  GIVEN AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SHEAR SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   FARTHER E...MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER INTO THE LOWER
   AND MID OH AND TN VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION
   POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
   DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
   CONDITIONAL UPON AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING.  ATTM...WILL
   MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
   REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EVOLUTION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
   BECOMES MORE CLEAR.  SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
   SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

   ..GOSS/GLEASON.. 04/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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