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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 28, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 28 13:00:57 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160528 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160528 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SW TX TO RED
   RIVER VALLEY REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIOSN MID/UPER MS VALLEY
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AND NEARBY
   AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD
   OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.  WEAK LOW NOW OVER ERN
   NEB IS FCST TO DEVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND SLOWLY EJECT ENEWD
   TODAY...REACHING SWRN MN...WRN IA AND KS/MO BORDER REGION BY 00Z. 
   NEAR END OF PERIOD...TROUGH SHOULD REACH TO NEAR DLH...UIN...PAH
   LINE.  IN SRN STREAM...WEAK TROUGH WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
   SLOWLY MOVE ASHORE CA TONIGHT....PRECEDED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE
   BUILDING OVER PORTIONS UT/AZ/NM. 

   AT SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS PERTURBATION WAS
   ANALYZED AT 11Z IN YKN/FSD AREA...WITH WAVY WARM FRONT ENEWD THROUGH
   SECONDARY LOW NEAR LSE AND ACROSS S-CENTRAL WI...CENTRAL LOWER MI...
   AND NRN NY.  WEAK COLD FRONT ARCHED FROM WRN LOW THROUGH ERN KS...
   CENTRAL OK...NW TX AND SERN NM.  ENTIRE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
   MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING LS BY 12Z...AND PROBABLY
   CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT MULTIPLE/WEAK PRESSURE MINIMA.  WARM FRONT
   SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA...WHILE TRAILING
   COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME.  OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR MCS ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NWRN GULF WNWWD ACROSS
   S-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN SAT-COT AND INTO WEAK SFC LOW AND DRYLINE
   INTERSECTION JUST UPRIVER FROM DRT.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT
   NWD ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH PERIOD...PERMITTING NWWD RETURN
   OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO 70S F. 

   ...TX...
   HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
   TONIGHT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS
   SUCH...UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...THOUGH
   RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO MDT TO LOCALLY EXTREME BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
   S OF BOUNDARY.  MLCAPE MAY REACH 3500-5000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS
   CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL/SW TX...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AS
   MLCINH WEAKENS...ESPECIALLY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE
   WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AMIDST OTHERWISE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
   SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS.  35-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE INDICATES
   POTENTIAL FOR MIXED MODES OF ACTIVITY EARLY...INCLUDING ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS...SHORT-LIVED/HP SUPERCELLS...AND CLUSTERED CONVECTION. 
   THESE MAY ORGANIZE INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR A SMALL MCS THIS EVENING.
    
   ELSEWHERE OVER THIS REGION...CAPPING COMBINED WITH NEBULOUS FOCI FOR
   CONVECTION INITIATION RENDER POTENTIAL COVERAGE ONLY ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED...AND HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON MORE SUBTLE...MESOBETA-
   AND SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARIES.  

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO NRN MO/WRN IL REGION...
   GRADUAL EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   MID/LATE AFTN ACROSS THIS REGION WHILE ENTIRE REGIME SHIFTS
   GENERALLY NEWD.  ONE OR MORE ARCS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FROM
   NRN/ERN MO ACROSS IA TOWARD SERN MN...MOVING INTO PORTIONS IL/WI
   WITH TIME.  FRAGMENTED MOISTURE FIELD AND WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER MOST OF
   THIS AREA...WHILE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS MRGL AS UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS. 
   MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MORE
   INTENSE/PERSISTENT CELLS.  WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT INVOF SLOWLY MIGRATING LOW-PRESSURE AREA...WEAKNESS OF THAT AS
   WELL AS OF ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FIELDS AND NEAR-SFC WIND FIELDS
   SHOULD KEEP HODOGRAPHS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVELY SMALL.
   EXCEPTION MAY BE WHERE LOCALIZED/LOW-PREDICTABILITY BOUNDARY OR
   STORM-SCALE PROCESSES DOMINATE MESOSCALE TO SUBSYNOPTIC FORCINGS. 
   AS SUCH...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR
   MORE THAN MRGL PROBABILITIES. 

   ...OZARKS AND VICINITY... 
   LACK OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT FARTHER S
   LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR DEARTH OF CONVECTION IN MOST PROGS FROM CENTRAL
   MO THROUGH OZARKS TO ERN OK/WRN AR.  PRIND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/
   INTENSITY WILL BE TOO LOW TODAY TO MAINTAIN EVEN MRGL SVR
   PROBABILITIES. 

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS -- T.D. 2...
   LATEST NHC GUIDANCE BRINGS CENTER OF CIRCULATION CLOSE TO COAST AS
   MRGL TROPICAL STORM AFTER END OF PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASE IN BOTH
   CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AROUND NRN
   PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION...OVER EXTREME ERN SC AND SRN NC COASTS. 
   ATTM...FCST WIND FIELDS APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR UNCONDITIONAL TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES...WITH CURVED BUT RATHER SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   AND 0-1 KM SRH BELOW 100 J/KG IN FCST SOUNDINGS.  06-12Z TIME FRAME
   ALSO WILL REPRESENT NOCTURNAL MIN IN INLAND BUOYANCY.  FOR NOW...
   GIVEN THOSE FACTORS...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MRGL TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES FOR LATE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY/
   WIND TRENDS.  SOME RISK MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR SMALL SEGMENT
   OF COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR LATE TONIGHT IF WHAT NOW IS STILL T.D. 2
   BECOMES STRONGER AND/OR MORE EXPANSIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST.  SEE NHC
   BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON TRACK
   AND INTENSITY...AS WELL AS TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THIS
   SYSTEM.

   ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 05/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: May 28, 2016
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