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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 3, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 3 12:55:31 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150703 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150703 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 031255

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA AND SC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
   CAROLINA CST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLNS TO
   THE MID-ATLANTIC CST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   BROAD...POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
   NATION...MAINTAINING SEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW FROM THE LWR MS VLY
   TO THE CAROLINA CST. UPSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...WEAK RIDGE WILL
   REMAIN QSTNRY ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS...WITH AN UPR LOW OFF
   THE CNTRL CA CST.

   NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EWD IN BELT OF
   ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALONG
   NRN FLANK OF GRT BASIN/RCKYS RIDGE. AT LWR LVLS...A WEAK SFC WAVE
   WILL TRACK ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER
   THE LWR-MID OH VLY. HOWEVER...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER
   S... EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO THE
   CAROLINAS...LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
   DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   ...AL/GA INTO SC/NC TODAY/EARLY TNGT...
   UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS BY EVE...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 40-50 KT 700 MB WLY FLOW
   SPREADS E ACROSS GA AND SC. UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH
   CONTINUED SFC HEATING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS NOW
   EXTENDING FROM NRN AL INTO UPSTATE SC. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   WILL REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION OF 1.75 INCH PW WITH SEASONABLY
   STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL LWR TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO N/S-ORIENTED BOWS WITH A RISK
   FOR DMGG WIND. IN ADDITION...WEAK BUT SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS
   INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE CAROLINAS MAY
   SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE LOW-LVL SRH TO YIELD A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

   ...RED RVR VLY E INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   ONGOING TSTMS FROM SE OK/FAR N TX EWD INTO AR/NRN MS MAY POSE A
   SPORADIC/MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
   HEATING SHOULD FOSTER NEW CONVECTION ON THE FRINGES OF THE LINGERING
   ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER N ACROSS NE OK
   AND NRN AR...CLOSER TO FRONT TRAILING SW FROM OH VLY SFC WAVE. ALL
   OF THE STORMS COULD POSE A LOCALLY DMGG WIND THREAT GIVEN HIGH PW
   VALUES. STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BUT
   VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
   HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...THROUGH EARLY EVE.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLNS LATER TODAY...BENEATH MODEST NWLY MID-LVL FLOW. COUPLED WITH
   LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT AND AMPLY MOIST SELY LOW-LVL WINDS... SETUP
   SHOULD YIELD SCTD AFTN/EVE TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND LEE
   TROUGH E OF THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
   WEAK...WITH PERHAPS WEAK DCVA OVER WY/NRN CO ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
   IMPULSE NOW NEAR THE BIG HORNS. VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY
   YIELD WDLY SCTD STORMS WITH HAIL...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.

   ..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 07/03/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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