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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 26, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 26 12:48:09 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141126 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141126 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261248

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
   AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WILL
   DEAMPLIFY AND TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS AN EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
   NEW ENGLAND COAST. COASTAL SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
   CONUS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THIS SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT
   BRUSHES THE OUTER BANKS...OR ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD
   ACROSS S FL. 

   ...OUTER BANKS/COASTAL NC...
   12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE LOW NEAR ILM WITH ONLY MODERATE
   PRESSURE FALLS NWD ACROSS COASTAL NC AND THE DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE
   TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
   WITH LITTLE TO NO PENETRATION OF THE WARM SECTOR ONSHORE IN NC /WITH
   THE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER BANKS/. 12Z MHX SOUNDING REVEALED AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED TSTMS BUT THE LACK OF
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY MINIMAL.

   ...S FL PENINSULA...
   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF PBI SWWD TO
   EYW. ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
   ALSO LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ..MOSIER.. 11/26/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: November 26, 2014
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