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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 17, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 17 13:00:24 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180217 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180217 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 171300

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

   Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   While severe storms are not expected, isolated thunderstorms will be
   possible this morning across parts of north-central Texas toward the
   Ark-La-Tex region, and possibly across the coastal Pacific Northwest
   late tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A progressive/semi-amplified pattern will persist over much of the
   CONUS and Canada. An increasingly phased belt of confluent flow
   featuring multiple eastward-moving disturbances will exist across
   the Midwest to Appalachians and Northeast States, while an
   additional upper trough amplifies and digs southeastward toward the
   Pacific Northwest tonight.

   A linear cluster of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
   spreading eastward early this morning across north Texas. A weak
   southern-stream shortwave trough and modest moisture/weak buoyancy
   within an elevated frontal zone will continue to support the
   potential for thunderstorms this morning across north Texas toward
   the Ark-La-Tex, with the 12z observed sounding from Fort Worth
   sampling 300 J/kg MUCAPE based around 700mb/3km AGL. Overall
   thunderstorm potential should gradually diminish by afternoon across
   the region.

   Steepening lapse rates in conjunction with a southeastward-digging
   upper trough could account for a few thunderstorms late tonight
   along the coastal Pacific Northwest.

   ..Guyer.. 02/17/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: February 17, 2018
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