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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 12, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 12 12:56:29 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160212 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160212 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 121256

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   WASHINGTON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST ACROSS CONUS THIS PERIOD...
   DOMINATED BY ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
   FROM GREAT PAINS TO ATLC COAST AND BEYOND.  RIDGING CURRENTLY
   LOCATED FROM NWRN MEX TO NWRN CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS
   NERN PAC SHORTWAVES MOVE ASHORE FROM AK TO NWRN CONUS.  ONE OF THOSE
   -- NOW OFFSHORE PAC NW AND BC -- WILL MOVE ASHORE THROUGH PERIOD IN
   PIECEMEAL FASHION AS SEVERAL ASSOCIATED MAXIMA AND BANNERS OF
   VORTICITY PIVOT CYCLONICALLY THROUGH ACCOMPANYING FLOW FIELD. 
   PRIMARY/FINAL ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
   BETWEEN 06-09Z.  

   ...WRN WA...
   IN GENERAL...COLD AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...
   AMIDST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WITH THAT REGIME...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN
   VORTICITY LOBE...SHOTS OF DCVA ALOFT AND RELATED DESTABILIZATION/
   COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EPISODIC POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
   ACROSS THIS AREA.  BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
   EARLY-DAY/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...ELEVATED IN NATURE BASED ON FCST
   SOUNDINGS WITH 50-250 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850-MB LEVEL AND
   STRADDLING -20C ISOTHERM.  HOWEVER THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL THAN
   LATER REGIME...GIVEN SOME CINH NOTED IN 12Z RAOBS AROUND 700 MB AND
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STRENGTH OF LIFT INTO OPTIMAL ICING LAYERS FOR
   LTG GENERATION.  

   GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD ARRIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL STEEPENING
   OF LAPSE RATES THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF SFC-500-MB LAYER...PRECEDING
   MAIN VORTICITY PERTURBATION...AND RESULTING IN UNSTABLE PARCELS
   ROOTED IN PAC MARINE LAYER.  ASSOCIATED SBCAPE ALSO MAY REACH 50-250
   J/KG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION. 

   ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT
   TSTMS.

   ..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 02/12/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: February 12, 2016
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