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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 30, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 30 13:00:54 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170430 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170430 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301300

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

   Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   LA/MS/AL...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
   COAST STATES TO MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
   COAST STATES TO MIDWEST AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are
   expected today into tonight, especially across the central Gulf
   Coast States. Other severe storms could occur as far north as the
   Midwest and southern Great Lakes region.

   ...Lower MS River Valley/Gulf Coast States...
   A linearly organized broken cluster of storms is ongoing across
   along the LA/MS vicinity, where multiple tornadoes have occurred in
   the pre-dawn hours, and extends southward into south-central LA
   early this morning. These storms will continue to spread
   east-northeastward through the morning/afternoon hours. Although
   high-level winds are not overly strong per regional 12Z soundings, a
   modest but strengthening westerly component aloft in conjunction
   with strong low-level shear, including modestly backed southeasterly
   surface winds, will continue to support a mixed convective mode
   including embedded supercells/mesovortices capable of tornadoes and
   damaging winds. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out. See Mesoscale
   Discussion 611 for additional short-term details. 

   The tornado/damaging wind risk should shift into portions of AL by
   this afternoon, including the possibility of some regenerative
   development later this afternoon into early evening particularly on
   the southern flank of convection/possible outflow amidst moist
   confluent low-level flow. 

   ...Midwest/southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
   Questions exist regarding the extensiveness and likelihood of
   appreciable destabilization later today in a scenario that appears
   otherwise very favorable for severe thunderstorms given ample
   deep-layer/low-level shear. These uncertainties are related to
   extensive convection ongoing early today across the middle MS River
   Valley and lower OH Valley, with an east/northeastward-moving MCV
   also a factor across eastern IL/northern IN today. 

   Ahead of the cold front, gradual destabilization should occur into
   this afternoon along the southern/eastern fringes of ongoing
   precipitation and residual outflows, with the possibility of least
   some damaging wind/marginally severe hail risk developing this
   afternoon. As the upstream trough approaches the region and surface
   low spreads northeastward and deepens, at least a narrow corridor of
   modest destabilization could allow for late afternoon and evening
   increase in fast-moving storms capable of a severe risk.

   ..Guyer/Mosier.. 04/30/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: April 30, 2017
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