Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 30, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 30 12:58:39 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150730 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150730 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301258

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
   STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
   TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS AND
   ADJACENT CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. A
   WEST/NORTHWESTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS/ROCKIES WILL BE FLANKED BY A MODERATELY STRONG CORRIDOR OF
   CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS OVER
   THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST STATES. 

   ...NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   EARLY MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT SCATTERED
   PRECIPITATION AND SEMI-PREVALENT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT. ACCORDINGLY...THIS SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   OTHERWISE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z
   OBSERVED RAOBS. THAT SAID...PRE-FRONTAL MOIST ADVECTION AND POCKETS
   OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN
   CORRIDORS OF MODEST BUOYANCY FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA
   INTO SOUTHEAST NY AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

   MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40
   KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY NY/NEW ENGLAND TODAY IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH/SPEED MAX. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT...MULTICELLS AND SOME LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS
   SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGER-SCALE
   FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL ALSO A
   POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
   /PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN
   MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING
   FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN VICINITY OF LEE
   TROUGH/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE BROADER WARM SECTOR THIS
   AFTERNOON...A MODESTLY ENHANCED BAND /15-20 KT/ OF
   NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY HELP SUSTAIN STRONGER STORMS
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
   A MCS OVER SOUTHERN KS/FAR NORTHERN OK AT MID-MORNING MAY PERSIST
   SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND/OR SUBSEQUENT LATER
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...IN VICINITY OF A RESIDUAL FRONT AND
   RELATED CORRIDOR OF RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   WEAK...AMPLE INSTABILITY/WATER LOADING MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
   DOWNDRAFTS TO OCCUR.

   ...NORTHERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
   A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/OVERALL BUOYANCY
   WILL BE A LIMITED AND SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONGER
   WIND GUSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE GIVEN A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
   WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

   ..GUYER/COOK.. 07/30/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 30, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities