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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 31, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 31 12:44:23 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150131 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150131 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 311244

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

   VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY ONE
   PERIOD. WITHIN THIS UPPER-AIR REGIME...A NRN-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...TEMPORARILY
   PHASING WITH A SRN-BRANCH LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE
   VICINITY OF LAS SEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
   FRONT RELATED TO THE NRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
   THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY. A
   CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO
   TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS.  

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN AZ/NM INTO CNTRL TX...

   CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL
   INHIBIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
   SRN-BRANCH UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WAVES OF FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
   RELATED TO VORTICITY MAXIMA PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TODAY INTO
   THIS EVENING FROM SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM INTO SWRN TX.

   ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM
   THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX ALONG AN AXIS OF MORE
   ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
   EXPECTED.

   ..MEAD.. 01/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: January 31, 2015
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