SPC AC 191251
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be
possible into tonight across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and Florida.
A broad swath of convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the
northwest Gulf. The strongest storms have been confined to parts of
east-central LA to southwest MS, along the leading edge of the
convective band where the inflow air mass is characterized by 65-70
degree F surface dew points. The northern extent of this rich
moisture should reach as far east as west-central AL into the FL
Panhandle. However, weak mid/upper-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z
soundings suggest that MLCAPE should remain meager, predominately
around 500 J/kg or less. Nevertheless, some intensification of this
morning's convection may occur through the afternoon/evening as
low-level southwesterlies strengthen to around 35-45 kt at 850 mb.
This should result in moderately enlarged low-level hodographs and
support transient rotating updrafts given the weak instability.
Overall scenario appears most likely to yield a brief tornado or two
and isolated damaging winds. This risk should persist into the
evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast, before gradually
For additional short-term discussion, please see MCD 0074.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z