Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 2, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 2 12:46:21 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150902 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150902 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 021246

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN TODAY. NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN UNITED
   STATES...GREAT LAKES REGION...FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL ROCKIES.

   ...WISCONSIN...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
   EWD TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   ONGOING THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
   ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WRN UPPER MI EXTENDING SWD INTO SCNTRL IA AND NW
   MO. THE STORMS OVER NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO UPPER
   MI THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN WRN WI
   GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE
   LATEST HRRR. THIS SHOULD SETUP A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS
   WCNTRL WI...ALONG WHICH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL
   WI SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHICH
   COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST INITIATE IN WCNTRL
   WI WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON
   EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WRN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL WI AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE
   NEAR 1500 J/KG...SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND
   25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   WITH SHORT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 09/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 02, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities