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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 29, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 29 12:50:21 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160829 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160829 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291250

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL/SRN MN TO UPPER MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO UPPER
   MICHIGAN.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN TO UPPER MI...
   A LARGELY DECAYING MCS IS ONGOING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN INTO
   NORTHERN WI. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH CELLS ON THE
   WESTERN FLANK OF THE MCS...OWING TO PRESENCE OF UPSTREAM 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM PER 12Z ABERDEEN RAOB.
   HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
   SUBSIDES AMID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LARGELY SURGING WELL SOUTH OF THE
   CLUSTER IN MN.

   BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS/...WILL LIKELY YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY LATE DAY
   WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-3000 J/KG. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SHOULD REACH
   SOUTHWEST MN TO WESTERN UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY MERGING
   WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
   IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS
   EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN FROM 15-20 KT OUTSIDE
   OF UPPER MI/FAR NORTHERN WI...WITH 20-30 KT WITHIN THIS REGION BUT
   LIKELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. OVERALL SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK...SUBSIDING BY LATE
   EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/COHEN.. 08/29/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: August 29, 2016
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