Jan 27, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 27 12:47:05 UTC 2015 (20150127 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150127 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150127 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150127 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150127 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150127 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271247

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
   TODAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST...FEATURING MEAN RIDGE
   OVER WRN CONUS AND MEAN TROUGH INVOF E COAST.  FORMERLY CLOSED
   LOW...NOW WEAKENING/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...IS MOVING NNEWD OVER SRN CA
   ATTM.  SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE AS THAT FEATURE TURNS
   NEWD OVER GREAT BASIN TODAY...THEN EWD OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
   THROUGH LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TONIGHT.  WHILE A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL CONVECTION OVER
   NV/UT...BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SCANT FOR GEN TSTM
   THREAT.

   OTHERWISE...STG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OFF SRN NEW ENGLAND
   IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD BAY OF FUNDY REGION THROUGH PERIOD. 
   LARGE/LOW-THETAE ANTICYCLONE IN LOW LEVELS WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM
   ACROSS ERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS GULF OF
   MEXICO.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TSTMS E OF ROCKIES.

   ..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 01/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z