Jun 24, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 24 12:45:39 UTC 2017 (20170624 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170624 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170624 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 119,468 12,999,037 Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170624 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170624 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 119,429 12,979,227 Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170624 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 53,337 2,168,442 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
   SPC AC 241245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be
   possible over portions of the Southeast today, with isolated severe
   hail and strong winds over parts of New Mexico.

   ...Southeast States...

   A cold front from the Northeast States through the southern
   Appalachians will continue southeast today. A moist warm sector with
   low 70s F dewpoints resides over this region. The atmosphere will
   become moderately unstable especially over the Carolinas with 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE as the boundary layer warms. Storms are expected to
   redevelop along the front and over the higher terrain and will
   intensify as they intercept the moist and unstable warm sector. This
   region resides along the southern fringe of moderate winds aloft
   associated with a northern-stream upper trough with 30-35 kt
   effective bulk shear supportive of multicells and weak mid-level
   updraft rotation. Storms may produce a few instances of strong to
   damaging wind gusts as they develop east through the Carolinas this
   afternoon.

   ...New Mexico...

   Widespread low clouds have spread into NM within post-frontal regime
   east of higher terrain, and these clouds might persist much of
   today. However, diabatic warming over the higher terrain with steep
   lapse rates will likely foster modest /500-800 J/kg/ MLCAPE and the
   development of storms during the afternoon. Wind profiles are
   sufficient for some mid-level updraft rotation with storms
   developing over northern NM. Otherwise, multicells with isolated
   downburst winds and hail are expected from later this afternoon into
   early evening.

   ...Central through south central Texas...

   Storms will continue to propagate southward today along a large
   consolidated outflow boundary across south central TX under the
   influence of light northerly winds aloft. The warm sector is
   moderately unstable with modest mid-level lapse rates. A few strong
   wind gusts may occur with some of this activity, but overall threat
   appears limited.

   ..Dial/Picca.. 06/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z