Aug 24, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 24 12:52:46 UTC 2016 (20160824 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160824 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160824 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 51,406 3,653,749 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
MARGINAL 263,497 35,315,742 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160824 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 26,945 2,740,376 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160824 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 51,091 3,656,119 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
5 % 260,446 35,218,462 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160824 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 52,069 3,691,456 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
5 % 184,282 21,241,442 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...
   SPC AC 241252

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
   KS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO...AND WESTERN IL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...
   A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
   CO/NORTHEAST NM.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY
   EASTWARD TODAY INTO PARTS OF KS/OK BY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO MO
   OVERNIGHT.  A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   OVER PARTS OF KS/OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG ARE EXPECTED. 
   LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING
   IN THIS AREA...HELPING TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND POSE A RISK OF A FEW
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO DURING THE EVENING
   WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF WIND/HAIL.

   ...MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...
   ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER IA/WI/IL...WHERE A
   LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT.  THE EVOLUTION
   OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCLEAR...BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO IND/OH.  LOCALLY
   GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ..HART/COOK.. 08/24/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z