Feb 6, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 6 12:54:40 UTC 2016 (20160206 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160206 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160206 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160206 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160206 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160206 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061254

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG
   THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
   COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ESEWD
   OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND IT WILL REACH FL TONIGHT. 
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING OVER
   THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY/LAPSE RATES IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR
   DOWNSTREAM OVER FL THIS MORNING.  AN INCREASE IN ASCENT AND SOME
   STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD OCCUR OVER FL WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND CONVECTION COULD BECOME DEEP
   ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES THIS
   EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE SE FL COAST.

   ..THOMPSON/COOK.. 02/06/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z