Oct 22, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 22 12:34:30 UTC 2014 (20141022 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141022 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141022 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141022 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141022 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141022 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221234

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR
   SOUTHERN TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
   NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER W...A BELT OF STRONG
   MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NW
   COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE FAR
   NERN PACIFIC.

   AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
   SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
   THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION
   OF THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  

   ...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NON-SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
   FROM SWRN TX INTO THE MID MO VALLEY ALONG THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR
   STREAM PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN OF
   THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
   MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND... 

   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS /MOST OF WHICH ARE OFFSHORE/ ARE ONGOING
   THIS MORNING WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP-LAYER
   LOW. THE INTERACTION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
   SENSIBLE HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUXES WITHIN THE OCEANIC BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
   NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS COULD BRUSH
   THE COASTS OF LONG ISLAND AND FAR SERN MA...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
   ANTICIPATED.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF TX AND FL AS
   WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

   ..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/22/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z