Oct 16, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 16 12:46:09 UTC 2017 (20171016 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171016 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171016 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171016 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171016 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171016 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161246

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic non-severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
   Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is expected this period over
   the contiguous U.S., led by a substantial, positively tilted
   shortwave trough now located from Lake Huron to eastern MO.  This
   perturbation is forecast to move to a position from the Adirondacks
   to the southern Appalachians by 00Z.  The associated 500-mb
   vorticity field will continue to stretch, north-south, extending by
   12Z from New Brunswick offshore New England to eastern NC and
   central GA.

   A surface cold front was analyzed at 11Z from offshore New England
   to the Hampton Roads area, central SC, the western FL Panhandle, and
   the northwestern Gulf.  By 00Z this front should reach the northern
   FL Peninsula and north-central/west-central Gulf.  The front should
   decelerate and move across parts of central FL through tomorrow
   morning. 

   ...Southeast...
   A band of widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
   over southern GA/northern FL, as relatively maximized low-level
   convergence near the front impinges on a diurnally heated, moist air
   mass, with surface dew points commonly upper 60s to low 70s F, and
   locally higher.  Those conditions will offset modest mid/upper level
   lapse rates enough to yield weakly inhibited MLCAPE around 1000-1500
   J/kg during the peak of afternoon surface warmth and boundary-layer
   lapse rates.  Otherwise, between now and this evening, coverage
   should remain generally isolated.  Overnight, a combination of
   stabilizing warm-sector boundary layer and weakening convergence
   near the front should reduce already marginal thunder potential over
   land.

   ..Edwards/Thompson.. 10/16/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z