Dec 21, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 21 12:37:37 UTC 2014 (20141221 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141221 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141221 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141221 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141221 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141221 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211237

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

   VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND
   TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DEVELOPMENT OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS BY
   12Z...WITH ANCHORING 500-MB LOW BETWEEN VTN-MHE.  BY THAT
   TIME...ASSOCIATED BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES AND NRN MEX TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SRN-STREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX AND ADJOINING
   PORTIONS OF NERN MEX.  THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY
   THROUGHOUT REST OF PERIOD...CROSSING LA AROUND 00Z...AND IN
   MUCH-WEAKENED CONDITION...CAROLINAS BY 12Z. 

   AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM OFF
   CENTRAL FL ATLC COAST SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL FL THEN WWD OVER
   N-CENTRAL/NWRN GULF.  ATLC PORTION SHOULD MOVE NWD AS WARM FRONT
   TODAY...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE GA/CAROLINAS.  GULF SEGMENT SHOULD
   REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OR DRIFT NWD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  

   ...SERN CONUS...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN
   BROAD SWATH OF SHALLOWER CONVECTION AND PRECIP...GENERALLY N OF SFC
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM CENTRAL GULF ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL AND SRN GA.  
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE
   ROBUST LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT RESTRICTIONS ON CAPE.  FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 400 J/KG
   OVER LAND...WITH ONLY BRIEF/MRGL INCURSIONS OF BUOYANCY INTO
   SUITABLE THERMAL LAYERS FOR LTG PRODUCTION.

   ..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/21/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z