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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 241256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER NW CANADA...N OF
ELONGATING LOW OVER WA/THE NRN RCKYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SW
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS...ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR NOTEWORTHY ATTM...WILL TRACK
NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GRT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS.
AT THE SFC...SELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGH PLNS...ON W SIDE
OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN ONLY MODESTLY
MOIST...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
FOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW/LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE.
...CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY OVER FAR ERN CO AND
WRN KS/NEB IN PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LVL FLOW...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S F. IN WAKE OF WEAK UPR
DISTURBANCE/CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS REGION...SFC HEATING COUPLED
WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD PROMOTE MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION...WITH AFTN SBCAPE OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG
EXPECTED.
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN
STORMS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING NE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLNS INTO THE EVE.
30-35 KT SWLY 500 MB WINDS ATOP 30 KT SLY 850 MB FLOW WILL YIELD
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL INCREASE/VEERING OF LLJ...ASCENT WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES
IN UPR LVL JET...AND NW-SE ORIENTATION OF THICKNESS CONTOURS OVER
NEB/KS SUGGEST UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS
BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN LATER TNGT.
...SRN HIGH PLNS LATE AFTN/EVE...
WDLY SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ERN NM/FAR W TX. THESE COULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD THE
WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS OVER THE PLNS. WNWLY DEEP SHEAR
ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS WITH ISOLD SVR HAIL AND HIGH WIND...GIVEN
STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT.
...S CNTRL/SE TX THROUGH TNGT...
S CNTRL TX MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SE TODAY...DRIVEN MAINLY BY
FORWARD-PROPAGATION INTO MOIST...SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW. SYSTEM ALSO MAY
BE SUPPORTED BY APPARENT MID/UPR-LVL CIRCULATION...POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED...NOW SE OF SJT. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING
AND FAIRLY HIGH PW /AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ MAY FOSTER ISOLD STRONG/SVR
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ALONG
LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD...HOWEVER...
MINIMIZE DEGREE...DURATION...AND ORGANIZATION OF ANY SUCH THREAT.
..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 05/24/2013
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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