May 26, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 26 13:00:41 UTC 2016 (20160526 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160526 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160526 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 90,050 1,629,046 Lincoln, NE...San Angelo, TX...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...
SLIGHT 372,070 27,812,583 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
MARGINAL 386,892 33,509,183 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160526 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 31,449 723,616 Lincoln, NE...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hays, KS...Junction City, KS...
5 % 74,736 2,852,855 Omaha, NE...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...San Angelo, TX...Lawrence, KS...
2 % 271,021 19,269,243 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160526 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 461,538 29,537,953 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 418,493 39,590,963 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160526 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 97,603 1,906,887 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...San Angelo, TX...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...
30 % 92,389 1,902,328 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...San Angelo, TX...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...
15 % 369,998 27,675,594 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 416,532 38,645,946 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...
   SPC AC 261300

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN KS AND SRN NEB...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   PARTS OF W CENTRAL AND SW TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH TONIGHT...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AND
   EXTENDING INTO THE MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
   VICINITY.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST TEXAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE
   BE POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD
   OVER NM TODAY AND REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.  A RELATED LEE
   CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN TODAY NEAR THE SW CORNER OF KS...AS A
   OUTFLOW-REINFORCED SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM
   CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST
   AIR MASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S IS PRESENT S
   OF THE BOUNDARY AND E OF A DRYLINE THAT ARCS SWWD FROM THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE TO THE W TX/SE NM BORDER.  THIS RICH MOISTURE LIES BENEATH
   A PLUME OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
   COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG AS SURFACE
   HEATING COMMENCES IN THE WARM SECTOR.

   THE INITIAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEAR
   QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...BUT THERE ARE SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT ARE ALREADY
   BECOMING APPARENT THIS MORNING.  CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   FORMED AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH MORE ISOLATED
   CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO NW TX.  SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR SJT...HAS RESULTED IN DOWNWARD
   TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR FROM ABOVE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. 
   THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFT
   PRODUCTION WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY
   WEAK FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY FROM N TX
   ACROSS OK.

   DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT IN KS WILL PROVIDE
   THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT.  THE
   WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE STABILIZING
   AFFECTS OF THE EARLY TX/OK CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND MODE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT EVEN
   IN KS.  DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES NEAR THE WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
   EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A FEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THIS
   TIME.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
   CLOSER TO THE KS/OK BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS WILL
   SPREAD NEWD.  AGAIN...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE GREATER WITH STORMS
   INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN
   WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR.

   BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GET MORE
   COMPLEX WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS AND LIKELY
   OUTFLOW/STABILIZING INFLUENCES.  AS SUCH...THE LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADO RISK SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT
   IN KS OR EXTREME SRN NEB...PRIOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING.  FARTHER S...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THIS
   EVENING INVOF THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK TO W TX.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION...AND WIND PROFILES WITH
   PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL BACKING BOTH CAST DOUBT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
   SEVERE RISK FROM NW AND N CENTRAL TX INTO OK.  THE MORE INTENSE
   STORMS SHOULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF W CENTRAL/SW TX...TO THE W-SW OF THE EARLY CENTRAL TX
   CONVECTION.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. 

   ...ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME N OF THE LEE CYCLONE/SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAW
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO SE AND E CENTRAL CO TODAY BENEATH
   LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT
   ALONG THE FRONT /IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER
   NM/ WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/26/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z