Jun 29, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 29 12:43:08 UTC 2016 (20160629 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160629 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160629 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 71,902 586,716 Rapid City, SD...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
MARGINAL 273,495 10,089,271 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160629 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160629 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 72,386 589,810 Rapid City, SD...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
5 % 272,124 10,126,871 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160629 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 35,298 193,523 Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Torrington, WY...
15 % 62,542 560,348 Rapid City, SD...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
5 % 265,931 8,901,606 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...
   SPC AC 291243

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
   PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT
   RISK...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO ERN NEB/KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF ERN
   NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A MORE ISOLATED
   RISK FARTHER EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  A FEW STORMS WITH
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS IN THE PROCESS OF
   WEAKENING...WHILE A NW FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING TOWARD
   ND/MN FROM MB.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
   DRIFT EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BUT ONLY SLOW SWD MOTION OF THE FRONT
   IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND NRN GULF COAST STATES. 
   THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH THE
   SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS BEEN MUDDLED BY OUTFLOW FROM
   MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS THE PAST DAY OR SO.  A REINFORCING COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO NRN MN/ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MB
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD FROM MT
   TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AN MCV AND REMNANT MCS IS MOVING SWD
   OVER NW OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME
   REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF THE
   OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  STILL...LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F AND PROXIMITY TO THE LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION
   WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NE WY AND
   THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY...WITH CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING
   SEWD OVER WRN NEB/NE CO/WRN KS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE INITIAL STORMS
   SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
   HAIL IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
   STORM-OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANOTHER CLUSTER
   OR TWO TONIGHT.

   A SEPARATE AREA OF WAA STORMS IS ONGOING NEAR THE ERN NEB BORDER
   THIS MORNING.  SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE S AND W MAY OCCUR
   AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM AND EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA APPROACH FROM THE
   NW.  MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE
   MID 60S...AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER WNWLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...WILL
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.

   ...ERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
   A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT EWD TODAY INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER NY.  DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN
   MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM ERN MA
   TO WRN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.  THE MODEST BUOYANCY WILL BE COINCIDENT
   WITH 30-40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY COOL MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES FOR A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 06/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z