May 4, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 4 12:49:43 UTC 2016 (20160504 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160504 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160504 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 23,693 8,454,124 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
MARGINAL 16,219 7,122,584 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160504 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 20,210 7,559,425 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160504 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 23,694 8,456,362 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
5 % 16,301 7,122,738 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160504 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 39,965 15,578,449 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
   SPC AC 041249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

   VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ALL
   OF SOUTHERN FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING NWD INTO PARTS OF NRN
   FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERY GRADUAL EWD SHIFT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD
   OVER THE U.S. WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD...AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS
   REACHES THE PAC NW/NRN CA COASTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND A
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INCHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  FARTHER E...A SECOND
   TROUGH/LOW WILL DIG SLOWLY SEWD...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE ERN CONUS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFF
   THE SERN U.S. COAST...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FL THROUGH THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL
   RAPIDLY SPREAD SEWD BEHIND A MIDWESTERN U.S. COLD FRONT THAT WILL
   CROSS THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
   A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INDICATED
   OFFSHORE OVER THE ERN GULF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
   ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF PER THE MORNING WV LOOP.  WHILE
   A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL INVOF THE COLD FRONT...GREATER SEVERE RISK
   SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND S OF THE ONGOING W-E BAND OF STORMS ALONG
   ROUGHLY A TAMPA/MELBOURNE AXIS.  WHILE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE ERN
   GULF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD S FL WITH TIME THUS
   LIMITING HEATING...AMPLE CAPE COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG SWLYS
   THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
   STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. 
   RISK SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
   AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE E
   COAST.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND SWD INTO CA/NWRN NV...AHEAD
   OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING ERN PACIFIC TROUGH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS
   PROGGED TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...ENHANCED BELT OF SLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
   CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

   FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT
   LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION.  A
   BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SWRN PORTION OF THE
   LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR POSSIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
   CELLS -- MAINLY ACROSS THE KY/TN VICINITY WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY
   IS FORECAST TO RESIDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SHEAR.  A FEW
   INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR...AND GUSTY
   WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO
   LOW ATTM TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO CAT1/MRGL RISK AREA.

   FINALLY...A SURFACE LOW AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY LINGER OVER
   THE NC COAST/OUTER BANKS AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING AS
   WELL.  WHILE A STRONGER ONSHORE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STRONGER
   ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/REMAIN OFFSHORE.

   ..GOSS/GLEASON.. 05/04/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z