Oct 30, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 30 12:44:03 UTC 2014 (20141030 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141030 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141030 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 32,887 3,264,132 Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141030 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141030 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141030 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 32,917 3,265,326 Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
   SPC AC 301244

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS. AN
   EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
   FLANKED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
   CONUS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 138W
   GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
   COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS/ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY.

   ...CENTRAL TX...
   A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE
   PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 12.4/14.3
   G/KG OBSERVED IN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM DEL RIO/CORPUS CHRISTI
   RESPECTIVELY. A LIMITED DEGREE OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSITION IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A FAST-MOVING/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
   MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE AID OF A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD PEAK
   HEATING. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES WILL BE WEAK ON THE
   ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE POLAR JET...SUFFICIENT FRONTAL
   UPLIFT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER /750-1250 J PER KG MLCAPE/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
   LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. THIS IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS TRADITIONAL DETERMINISTIC
   GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO VIRTUALLY ALL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z SSEO
   INCLUDING THE WRF-NSSL. 

   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY...STRENGTHENING BELT OF
   NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH COULD SUPPORT
   SOME ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A COUPLE OF WEAK/TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...MARGINAL-CALIBER SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
   BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MAINLY A HAIL RISK LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SOUTHWARD-MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER DARK.

   ...FL...
   A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN AMPLIFYING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH GA/NORTH FL. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WESTERN
   FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE OTHER RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED INLAND
   /SUCH AS KDAB GENERAL VICINITY/...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT GIVEN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GUYER/BOTHWELL.. 10/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z