Mar 30, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 30 12:38:59 UTC 2015 (20150330 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150330 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150330 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 23,339 1,694,785 Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Wright, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150330 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150330 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,472 1,698,625 Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Wright, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150330 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,490 1,725,329 Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Wright, FL...
   SPC AC 301238

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SRN AL...SW
   GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AFTER WEAKENING OF MORNING STORMS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LATE
   TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY...AS WELL AS ALONG
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

   ...EXTREME SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA TODAY...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO THE SE
   ATLANTIC COAST BY ABOUT 21Z...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD
   ACROSS GA/AL/MS.  ONGOING STORMS IN A BAND THIS MORNING FROM E
   CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL AND N GA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
   MORNING.  JUST S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
   OUTFLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD APPROACH
   1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  

   THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA WILL BE SOURCES FOR ASCENT TO
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-21Z.  THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF NE EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR NEAR OR
   JUST AFTER 18Z...LEAVING THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONT AS THE ONLY
   IDENTIFIABLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDLEVEL WAVE
   PASSAGE...LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE BUOYANCY
   AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT LITTLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
   LEVELS.  WILL RETAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE ADDITIONAL
   STORMS FORM NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

   ...ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT...
   A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
   NE EDGE OF THE RETURN MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS TX.  CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
   PERIOD...THOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
   END OF THE PERIOD INVOF SE OK.  WELL TO THE NW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL REACH THE PAC NW COAST BY 09-12Z.  STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SUPPORT THE RISK OF
   ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z