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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 24, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 24 16:42:09 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180524 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180524 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241642

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
   AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TODAY....

   CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES IN TX AND CA

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
   across the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon
   and evening.

   Models are rather inconsistent today regarding location/timing and
   intensity of convection later today.  This leads to a relatively
   low-confidence outlook.  Nevertheless, a few changes have been made
   to the MRGL/SLGT areas based on 12z CAM consensus.

   ...ND/SD/MN this afternoon/evening...
   Water vapor loop shows a strong upper trough rotating northward
   across MT/ND into Manitoba.  Most of the lift associated with this
   system will move into Canada by this afternoon, but some potential
   for organized severe storms will be present across parts of
   northern/northeastern ND and eastern SD.  Those storms that form
   along a weak surface boundary/dryline will be in an environment of
   at least moderate CAPE and sufficient vertical shear for
   bow/supercell structures.  Large hail and damaging winds will be
   possible in the strongest cells.  This activity should spread
   eastward across MN through the evening.

   ...NE/KS...
   Strong heating will yield steep lapse rates and minimal cap this
   afternoon over parts of central NE into central KS.  Forecast
   soundings suggest a very unstable air mass is also likely, with
   sufficient mid/upper level flow for some convective organization. 
   The main forecast uncertainty is the extent of convective
   development.  About half of the morning CAM solutions suggest storms
   will form over north-central NE.  If this occurs, damaging winds and
   hail would be possible.  A more consistent convective signal is
   apparent over far eastern CO into western KS, where parameters
   appear favorable for damaging wind gusts.

   ...West TX/Southeast NM...
   Once again today, a few thunderstorms are expected to form in the
   hot/unstable air mass in place across southeast NM and west TX. 
   Shear profiles are a little weaker than yesterday and upper forcing
   is minimal.  Nevertheless, a few storms could produce hail and gusty
   winds.

   ...NV...
   A large upper trough is digging into CA, with height falls expected
   to commence along the Sierra later today.  A cluster of
   thunderstorms is forecast to develop over northwest NV, spreading
   northward into southern OR tonight.  Forecast soundings show
   inverted-v profiles and sufficient steering flow for some risk of
   gusty/damaging wind.

   ...MN/northern WI/western Upper MI...
   A decaying cluster of thunderstorms over northern WI will leave a
   remnant outflow boundary, possibly focusing redevelopment of storms
   later today.  If so, the strongest cells could produce hail and
   gusty winds.

   ..Hart.. 05/24/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: May 24, 2018
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