Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
May 26, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 26 16:27:23 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150526 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150526 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY
   AND GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE TO TX
   GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FL
   PNHDL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. 
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS NEWD
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A LOOSELY PHASED VORTICITY LOBE
   PRESENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE TN INTO OH
   VALLEYS.  OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
   WILL TRACK EWD/SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRIMARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

   AT THE SURFACE...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF
   A RESIDUAL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAYS SEVERE MCS FROM AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN IA THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO CNTRL
   GULF COAST BEFORE CURVING WWD INTO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  THIS
   SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH WI WHILE A TRAILING WEAK COLD
   FRONT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF
   THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER KS WHERE IT WILL LINK
   WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK PNHDLS INTO W-CNTRL TX.


   ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   12Z RAOB DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ROBUST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 BY
   MONDAYS MCS...THOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW-CLOUD
   TRENDS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUX IS NOW OCCURRING THROUGH
   W-CNTRL TX ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT LLJ.  THIS PROCESS WILL
   CONTINUE TODAY WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S.
    AND GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE...FAIRLY
   RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL OCCUR WITH MLCAPE
   APPROACHING 2000-3000+ J/KG.

   A DEEPENING DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA/FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WEAK IMPULSE/S/ MOVING
   THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
   IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY
   AND A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
   MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES WITHIN THE FIRST FEW OF HOURS AFTER INITIATION. 
   THEREAFTER...RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WITH ISOLATED
   OCCURRENCES OF WIND AND/OR HAIL PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT.

   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   MID-MORNING MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE AN ARCING BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM SWRN WI SEWD INTO CNTRL IL. 
   THIS CONVECTION LIKELY DENOTES THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HEIGHT
   FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY UPPER-AIR SYSTEM MENTIONED IN
   THE SYNOPSIS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.  FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTIVE BAND FROM WI INTO WRN
   IND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING AND
   RESULTING GREATER INSTABILITY.  STILL THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM
   ROTATION AND A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUST.

   FARTHER EAST FROM LOWER MI INTO CNTRL/ERN IND AND OH...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING WITH LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
   GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ONE OR MULTIPLE TSTM
   LINE SEGMENTS EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS.  GIVEN THE
   STRENGTHENING...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

   ...TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   AN ACTIVE N-S BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING OVER AL INTO THE FL PNHDL
   ALONG THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON
   INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. 
   GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
   EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-ORDER STORM MODES AND AN
   ASSOCIATED ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  NONETHELESS...ISOLATED
   OCCURRENCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
   EVENING.

   ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 05/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 26, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities