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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 17, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 17 15:59:36 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140417 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140417 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 171556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
   FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

   ...SOUTH FLORIDA...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONGESTUS SWELLING OVER
   SOUTH FLORIDA COMMENSURATE WITH DIURNALLY BOLSTERED PBL
   CIRCULATIONS. THE GREATEST AGITATION TO THE CU FIELD IS NOTED OVER
   THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THIS
   YIELDS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MFL RAOB DEPICTING AN H5 TEMPERATURE AROUND
   -12C. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF MUCH OF
   THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE AN INCREASING INFLUX OF MARITIME
   TROPICAL AIR HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OWING TO VEERING
   OF POST-FRONTAL FLOW. FARTHER N...SUCH AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS
   BEEN LESS PROMINENT YIELDING A DECLINE OF BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT
   ACROSS FL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TAMPA-MELBOURNE LINE.

   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS STATIC
   STABILITY DIURNALLY LOWERS AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
   INTENSIFY. WITH MIAMI VWP SAMPLING MODEST 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR -- 
   I.E. AROUND 20-25 KT -- MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
   CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR W OF THE EAST
   COAST METRO AREAS...AS MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED INVOF THE W
   COAST BY BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL ELYS AND CONVECTION REGENERATES TOWARD
   7.0-7.5-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH
   RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY BE
   RATHER DISORGANIZED -- REDUCING THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE AND
   PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
   CONTINUE TO GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...WITH LEADING
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION FOCUSING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITHIN
   A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PRECEDING THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A
   FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS TO
   THE GREAT BASIN...AS DCVA PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
   APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTERCEPTS STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM.

   ..COHEN/SMITH.. 04/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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