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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 30, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 30 16:29:53 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160630 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160630 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

   VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY INTO MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST CO INTO
   SOUTHWEST KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AN ARC
   FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO OVER
   THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MO...
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO MN...WITH
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   UPPER/MID MS VALLEY.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
   COVER IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO IL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
   HEATING FROM SOUTHERN WI...ACROSS EASTERN IA...INTO MO.  DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 60S OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A
   RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL
   FOR CONVECTION AND TRENDS IN DESTABILIZATION... HAVE OPTED TO
   UPGRADE THIS REGION TO SLIGHT RISK.

   ...NC...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
   STATES...WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
   THE CAROLINAS.  A MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF
   NC...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
   MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING.  THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ...CO/KS...
   A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO SOUTHEAST
   CO.  WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL RESULT
   IN MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES.  A WEAK BUT LONG-LIVED MCV IS
   NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST CO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  THIS FEATURE MAY
   ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   OVER SOUTHEAST CO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS
   DURING THE EVENING.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL
   FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS HAVE PROMPTED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK FOR
   THIS REGION...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 06/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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