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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 24, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 24 15:59:13 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180224 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180224 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0959 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
   ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MS...LOWER OH...AND TN VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MS...LOWER OH...AND TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are
   expected to develop today through tonight across northeast Texas and
   the Arklatex region, east northeastward through the lower
   Mississippi and lower/middle Ohio Valleys.  Isolated strong
   tornadoes are possible.

   Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Morning
   surface analysis shows that the primary surface boundary currently
   extends from northeast TX to the MO Bootheel, then eastward into KY.
    A moist and increasingly unstable air mass is in place to the south
   of the boundary with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s.  The corridor
   along and just south of the boundary is expected to be the focus for
   severe storm activity this afternoon.

   12z CAM solutions agree on development of intense storms around
   17-18z over northeast TX/southwest AR, as strong large scale forcing
   overspreads the moist air mass.  Considerable cloud cover will limit
   the degree of heating and destabilization today.  However, forecast
   soundings in this area show substantial low-level helicity of
   300-500 m2/s2 and sufficient CAPE for robust convection.  Storm mode
   will likely be complex with discrete supercells transitioning to
   multiple bow/LEWP structures through the afternoon.  CAPE/shear
   parameter ranges suggest the potential for a few strong tornadoes
   this afternoon across parts of AR and west TN.  The risk of
   widespread damaging winds will also likely increase through the day
   as storm structures become more linear.  The line of fast-moving
   severe storms is expected to sweep into parts of southern IN/central
   KY/middle TN after dark with a continued damaging wind and isolated
   tornado threat.

   ..Hart/Gleason.. 02/24/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 24, 2018
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