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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 24, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 24 16:32:51 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150424 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150424 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241632

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS
   TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
   TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
   NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

   ...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
   TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
   WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES. 

   THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
   POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
   TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
   PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
   MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  

   WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
   CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
   EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
   GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
   WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
   COULD BE STRONG/. 

   ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
   DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
   AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

   GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
   A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
   A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
     
   ...KS AREA...
   A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
   WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
   MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A  FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
   REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
   MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
   TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
   HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 04/24/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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