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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 24 16:29:49 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140724 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140724 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
   MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC AND SRN VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   OCCUR FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY AFFECT
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHERN
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH
   DAKOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA.

   ...ERN MT INTO ND...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN BC AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD TOWARD
   THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH STRONG WSWLY WINDS
   ALOFT PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS MT AND ND.  THE PRIMARY 500 MB HEIGHT
   FALLS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH
   OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
   THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.

   WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EML IS LIKELY TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING THE PRIMARY STORM AXIS WILL BE
   FROM NERN/EAST CENTRAL MT ACROSS PARTS OF ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT.  THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT ELEVATED STORMS IN ERN ND
   WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE EXCEEDING 2500-3000 J/KG
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PLAINS
   N/S TROUGH.  INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME ASCENT
   ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP RESULTING IN CONVECTION
   INITIATION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER MT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
   IN COVERAGE ACROSS ND INTO TONIGHT.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   FAVOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL...SEVERE WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  THERE IS
   POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO MERGE INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND
   SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ND DURING THE NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ...SERN ND/ERN SD/SWRN MN AND IA...
   CURRENT ELEVATED STORMS OVER SERN ND AND ERN SD WILL POSE A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...SEE MCD 1457 FOR NEAR-TERM
   DETAILS.  IN ADDITION...ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST/REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE EML/CAP WITHIN A
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE ELEVATED STORMS.

   ...PARTS OF VA AND NC...
   STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER ERN NC AT THIS TIME WITHIN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE 70S AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/
   TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.  OTHER STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE CURRENT STORMS WHERE
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES BREAKS/THINNING OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL
   PROMOTE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.  WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
   ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONGER CELLS WILL
   HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL.

   ..WEISS/ROGERS.. 07/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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