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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 30, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 30 16:23:50 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150730 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150730 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301623

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
   AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS -- AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED/MARGINALLY
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT
   FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A RELATIVELY STAGNANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER
   OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
   CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND RIDGING RESIDES
   OVER THE S CENTRAL AND WRN STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   WILL CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND SWD TOWARD THE
   GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM ERN NY
   SSWWD INTO WRN VA...INVOF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE
   REGION.  ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE...WITH A FEW
   STRONGER CELLS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- AIDED BY MODERATE /AROUND 30 KT/
   MID-LEVEL WLYS.  A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
   PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...THE SOUTH...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
   SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  WHILE MOST STORMS
   SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED /20 KT/
   MID-LEVEL NLY/NELY FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO
   MULTICELL-TYPE STORMS AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF
   GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.  STORMS WILL DIMINISH
   THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.

   ..GOSS/GLEASON.. 07/30/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: July 30, 2015
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