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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 16:27:49 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150329 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150329 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
   WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
   TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
   TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
   DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
   TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

   ...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
   THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
   50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
   PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
   SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
   BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
   DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

   BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
   MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
   GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
   STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
   FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
   PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

   THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
   WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
   POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
   SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
   BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
   SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
   THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
   CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
   MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
   THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
   INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
   FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

   ..COHEN.. 03/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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