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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 24, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 24 16:19:44 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160824 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160824 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241619

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
   LOWER MI AND OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
   OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS GENERATED SEVERAL RAIN-COOLED
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL MO
   AND THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL MAY MAINTAIN A
   FEW STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF KS INTO WRN
   MO...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL KS AREA AS WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AT THIS TIME.  

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ AND DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING FROM NRN OK INTO SERN KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE SWLY
   MID-LEVEL WINDS AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
   PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS.  STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD/NEWD
   ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...
   SEVERAL AREAS/BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS
   MORNING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF INITIAL
   ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG DIABATIC
   HEATING WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND
   WEAKENING OF THE CAP FROM EAST CENTRAL/SERN MO INTO SRN
   INDIANA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.  ALTHOUGH
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
   SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN 25-35 KT WSWLY FLOW
   ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT MAINLY ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL STORMS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.  ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
   TO PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...NRN IL/NRN INDIANA INTO LOWER MI AND OH...
   AN EWD MOVING WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
   OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A POSSIBLE MCV OVER NWRN IL. 
   DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD ARE SPREADING
   EWD AND SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THIS
   AREA.  A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
   BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY.

   ..WEISS/PICCA.. 08/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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