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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 29, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 29 16:29:36 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150629 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150629 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST US...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
   US...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO ARIZONA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...MN/WI/IA...
   SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MB/WESTERN ONT TRACKING
   SOUTHWARD TOWARD MN.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
   MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WHERE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING
   DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE.  MOST
   MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
   NORTHERN IA AFTER DARK BEFORE DIMINISHING.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER IND/OH/KY THIS
   MORNING...ROTATING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  WIDESPREAD
   CLOUD COVER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL GREATLY LIMIT
   DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
   BE A ZONE WHERE HEATING SHOULD COMMENCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PARTS OF KY/WV NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN OH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW SUBSTANTIAL VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
   COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
   LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTHERN
   OH...TRACKING INTO WESTERN WV THIS EVENING.  THE STRONGEST STORMS
   MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
   OR TWO.

   ...CENTRAL SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS CO.  THIS MAY TEND TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
   THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM.
    STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.

   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ORE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
   HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
   OF WA/ORE INTO ID AND WESTERN MT.  STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ATOP INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW
   STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED.

   ..HART/COHEN.. 06/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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